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Apr 30 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ Even as Ukraine ramps up its use of unmanned ground vehicles, demand for Russian UGVs has reportedly collapsed and all of their developers are facing bankruptcy for lack of demand. The reason is the blocking of Starlink for the Russian side. ⬇️
2/ Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev writes about the currently disastrous state of Russian UGV deployments, which were reliant on Starlink access but can no longer be used effectively since the cutoff in February:
3/ "In short: while the enemy is ramping up their use, the Russian Armed Forces are scaling back. And it’s not because they’re in short supply—there are thousands of them sitting in the military depots.
4/ "It’s because the losses are too high—both from enemy fire and simply from a lack of communication (the latter being even more common). While Starlink was operational, the second problem didn’t exist.
5/ "In other words, the issue isn’t about fielding a large number of self-sufficient crews—it’s about the presence, or more accurately the absence, of a communication network at the front that’s resistant to jammers and radio blackouts.
6/ "It’s also clear how to set up communication—it’s not Newton’s binomial theorem—but right now, all the companies that have invested in such solutions are on the verge of bankruptcy due to a lack of orders.
7/ "For the same reason, we haven’t yet launched mass production of our vehicles, which performed quite well in range and frontline tests—but driving on fibre-optic cable is expensive, and without it, radio communication is a lottery, most often ending in the loss of equipment.
8/ "If you really want to direct the fervour of your civic criticism somewhere, direct it toward the issue of mass digital communications for the front; it’s not just the robots that need it—everyone does." /end

Source:
t.me/chadayevru/4737

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

May 23
1/ Vladimir Putin's reversion to 'February 2022 mode' is meeting with a stony response from Russian warbloggers. Many have refrained from commenting, but some are reacting with open and sharp criticism, calling him "completely divorced from reality". ⬇️
2/ 'Comrade Artyom' writes:

"Yesterday, Putin stated the following:

"The situation on the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is turning from difficult to catastrophic; neither Western aid nor forced mobilisation are helping them."
3/ "I call on the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers not to carry out the criminal orders of the Kyiv regime."

Let's analyse this phrase.
Read 21 tweets
May 23
1/ With Russian logistics vehicles now regularly being blown up by Ukrainian drones far behind the front lines, Russian warbloggers are angrily demanding to know why the military leadership didn't anticipate this and put in place anti-drone protections. ⬇️
2/ As illustrated in this excellent post by @clement_molin, Ukraine is managing to extend its 'kill zone' into Russia and Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, severely hindering Russian logistics across the region.
3/ Warblogger Vladimir Romanov asks some pointed questions, with a dig at Putin:

"Fuel shortages are beginning in Sevastopol.

This is the beginning of the consequences of the enemy's systematic strikes on oil refineries and tanker trucks along the land corridor to Crimea."
Read 16 tweets
May 23
1/ While the Russian army has had some success in adapting to the conditions of the Ukraine war, this has often relied on bypassing the existing military bureaucracy. A Russian commentary highlights how a "self-defensive bureaucratic carcass" is hindering Russia's war effort. ⬇️ Image
2/ The Russian war effort is heavily dependent on soldiers' and volunteers' personal funding and individual adaptation, as often seen in the 'Mad Max' style vehicles used on the battlefield. Soldiers have often complained of a lack of support and provision from the bureaucracy.
3/ 'Voice from Below' writes:

"Problems with UAVs, communications, reconnaissance, and mechanisation have been discussed since the mid-2010s."
Read 17 tweets
May 22
1/ The Ukraine war is deadlocked, writes the imprisoned Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. He warns that Russia's current tactics are ineffective and Ukraine's intensifying drone strikes on the Russian rear may be leading up to a new counter-offensive. ⬇️ AI-edited image of Igor Girkin with a chess board
2/ Girkin, who has been a constant critic of the Russian military's strategy, observes:

"THERE'S A COMPLETE DEADLOCK ON THE FRONT. The summer campaign is beginning as incoherently as the winter-spring campaign ended."
3/ "Push-pull back and forth" isn't something that can lead us even to such a limited (and strategically senseless) goal as the complete liberation of the entire Donbas (DPR), much less the complete liberation of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions—…
Read 12 tweets
May 22
1/ With the war in Ukraine locked in a stalemate and Russia casualties growing, Russian warbloggers are divided between advocating a full mobilisation or calling for the front lines to be frozen. Oleg Tsarev advocates ending the war and declaring victory to save Russian lives. ⬇️ Image
2/ Tsarev, a fugitive Ukrainian-Russian politician now living in Russia, says that Russia has already achieved as much as it's likely to with the conquest of 'Novorossiya', and the war should be ended now with a declaration of victory so that no more Russians need to die:
3/ "It's bad when a person falls into a psychological trap they create for themselves. Psychologists call this a cognitive trap: when faced with a difficult situation, a person doesn't ask for help to avoid appearing weak.
Read 21 tweets
May 22
1/ Russia's demographic crisis is worsening sharply, as its villages empty out and birth rates slump. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have died in the war in Ukraine and at least a million more have fled the country, with no respite in sight for its dwindling population. ⬇️ Image
2/ Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik writes on his Telegram channel:

"Villages are dying: the outflow of young people has led to record-low birth rates."
3/ "A demographic alarm is sounding. The birth rate in Russian villages has hit rock bottom—a 35-year low. Rosstat recorded a fertility rate of 1.464. For reference, to avoid population decline, a fertility rate of at least 2 is needed.
Read 6 tweets

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