Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ There will never be a better time than now to attack Europe, says a prominent Russian warblogger. Alexey Zhivov says that victory in Ukraine is slipping away, so Russia needs to act like Iran and attack all the facilities in the EU that are being used to help Ukraine. ⬇️

2/ Zhivov calls 2026 "A Window of Opportunity, or Why Ukraine's Allies Need to Be Attacked Now." He envisages Russia carrying out Europe-wide missile attacks against factories and bases which are supporting Ukraine's war effort, while relying on Trump not helping Europe:

3/ "King Charles of Great Britain's visit to the United States and his address to Congress demonstrated that Trump has lost influence over the Ukrainian peace process since November. With the Republicans' defeat [in November], Trump will finally "wash his hands of the situation."

4/ "The Last Year of a Strong Budget:

Almost every day, debris from downed Ukrainian drones ends up hitting [Russian] oil refineries, munitions factories, and so on.

5/ "At the front, our troops are "pressing the enemy," but the battle is raging for every kilometre, and there is no promise of quick and deep breakthroughs into their rear.

6/ "The Russian budget is operating at peak capacity: tens of thousands of sanctions, attacks on exports, and the shadow fleet are increasing revenue dependence on external conditions. By 2027, there will no longer be enough money for the war.

7/ "Fight Before Europe Is Ready.

Meanwhile, in Poland, as well as in Britain, France, and Germany, there are growing calls to prepare for a possible military clash with Russia by 2030, and defense and the military-industrial complex are being reorganized accordingly.

8/ "However, Europe is not yet ready for a protracted, full-scale conventional war with Russia: the military-industrial complex has not been converted to a war footing, mobilisation decisions have been postponed, and societies are not psychologically prepared.

9/ "Nuclear deterrence exists, but a transition to a nuclear confrontation remains a political taboo for European elites.

10/ "Iran's Experience

Moscow's window of opportunity for victory in the Ukrainian conflict is narrowing by November. Resolving the Ukrainian conflict with current forces and means is impossible. It is necessary to dramatically expand the geography and level of escalation.

11/ "Iran has demonstrated a different approach: through strikes against the enemy's interests in third countries, proxy work, and controlled escalation, it is forcing even an aggressive adversary to consider its red lines.

12/ "Not a war with the EU, but the destruction of legitimate targets.

The production of Ukrainian drones and missiles is increasingly moving to Europe, as are electronics, other weapons, and their components.

13/ "This entire infrastructure, as well as the logistics and military bases servicing the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces.

14/ "To deprive Ukraine of weapons, it is first necessary to strike its European allies and logistics, and only then to severely restrict Ukraine's electricity, internet, and banking services, disable the transport and central transportation system,…

15/ …completely destroy the port infrastructure, and so on.

Only after this will significant changes on the front lines be possible. Russia, like Iran, could declare that it is not at war with EU countries, but all infrastructure used in Ukraine's interests will be destroyed.

16/ "Why won't the EU and NATO respond?

It's important to understand that Europe is currently unprepared for a direct military response: society is unprepared, the economy hasn't been rebuilt, decisions within the EU and NATO are slow,…

17/ …and Moscow's possession of nuclear weapons adds another powerful deterrent.

Before November, it's still possible to sharply raise the stakes and force Europe to abandon its course toward a direct conflict with Russia in 2028–2030.

18/ But the longer Moscow remains inactive the bolder and more systematic the enemy will become.

Critics will counter that strikes on Ukraine's European assets will dramatically increase NATO's involvement in the conflict and put Kaliningrad and the Baltics at risk.

19/ "But we must understand that all these risks will inevitably become apparent in a couple of years, but time will have already been lost, and NATO is already involved in the Ukrainian conflict.

20/ "Simultaneously with long-range strikes, Russia itself must enter a state of full military mobilisation of industry, the economy, public administration, and public opinion,…

21/ …so that the enemy has no doubt that we are ready to respond "with all our might" in the event of aggression.

In this case, there is a chance to end the war in 2026 and prevent it in 2030." /end

Source:
t.me/zhivoff/26232