Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, "price increases become exponential rather than linear."

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2050569974217908607

2/ The exponential point is reached at $250 per barrel, which is well within the range of realistic possibilities predicted by many analysts. Linearity breaks down because of:

3/ ♦️ Refinery margin blowouts — refineries pass through higher feedstock costs at elevated rates under stress

♦️ Speculation and panic premiums — markets take fright and price in fear, not just fundamentals

4/ ♦️ Supply chain cascades — trucking, distribution, and blending costs all rise with oil

♦️ California and other high-tax states would likely already be north of $10–$11/gallon

5/ The realistic range at $250/barrel would be an average of $8.50 – $10.00+/gallon nationally, with some states pushing well past that. California has already topped $6/gallon with oil at ~$110, so it would almost certainly exceed $12–$13 at $250 oil.

6/ In other Western countries, oil prices at $200-250 per barrel would lead to record-breaking petrol and diesel prices, with drastic impacts on the cost of driving and logistics, assuming no major government interventions such as suspending fuel taxes:

7/ 🇬🇧 There are currently no government interventions on fuel prices in the UK, so estimated prices would be:

♦️ $200 oil = ~195–215p/litre petrol, ~245–265p/litre diesel
♦️$250 oil = ~240–265p/litre petrol, ~295–320p/litre diesel

8/ 🇫🇷 France's TotalEnergies voluntary price cap sat at €1.99/litre for petrol as of late April – but that cap is anchored to market conditions and would become unenforceable at extreme oil prices.

Estimated prices would therefore be:

♦️ $200 oil: ~€2.60–2.80/litre petrol, ~€2.85–3.10/litre diesel
♦️ $250 oil: ~€3.10–3.40/litre petrol, ~€3.35–3.65/litre diesel

9/ 🇩🇪 Germany already has some of the highest fuel taxes in the EU, though a temporary €0.14/litre excise cut is in place between 1 May – 30 June to ease the burden. Estimated prices:

♦️ $200 oil: ~€2.55–2.75/litre petrol, ~€2.90–3.15/litre diesel
♦️ $250 oil: ~€3.05–3.30/litre petrol, ~€3.40–3.70/litre diesel

10/ 🇮🇹 Italy has cut fuel taxes by €0.20/litre. It also has some of the lowest LPG prices in Europe, which could see an accelerated shift to LPG vehicles. Estimated prices:

♦️ $200 oil: ~€2.50–2.70/litre petrol, ~€2.70–2.95/litre diesel
♦️ $250 oil: ~€3.00–3.25/litre petrol, ~€3.20–3.50/litre diesel

11/ 🇦🇺 Australia is already in crisis territory, due to its limited domestic refining capacity and dependence on refined fuel imports via the Singapore benchmark. Its vast distances also make it particularly expensive to distribute fuel nationwide.

♦️ $200 oil: AUD ~$2.60–2.90/litre petrol, AUD ~$3.30–3.70/litre diesel
♦️ $250 oil: AUD ~$3.10–3.50/litre petrol and AUD ~$3.90–4.40/litre diesel nationally, with remote areas and Darwin potentially hitting AUD ~$3.80–4.00+/litre for petrol and $5.00+ for diesel

12/ 🇯🇵 Japan is a uniquely exposed case. As of February 2026, 94.2% of Japan's crude oil imports came from the Middle East, making it one of the most vulnerable major economies to a Strait of Hormuz disruption.

13/ The government is using its reserves to try to cap gasoline prices at around ¥170/litre. However, this would likely break down with higher oil prices. At $200–$250 oil, the government would have to choose between letting prices soar or bankrupting the subsidy programme.

14/ The projections below show estimated unsubsidised market prices — what drivers would actually pay if the cap is lifted or collapses. Diesel is taxed less than gasoline.

♦️ $200 oil: unsubsidised gasoline: ¥270–300/litre, unsubsidised diesel: ¥255–285/litre
♦️ $250 oil: unsubsidised gasoline: ¥330–370/litre, unsubsidised diesel: ¥310–350/litre