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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
May 3 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Applebaum: Trump clearly did not expect the Iran war to last this long. He seems to have imagined it would be easy.

If people in the room told him otherwise, he ignored them. He knows very little about Iran and even seemed surprised by Hormuz and Iranian strikes. 1/
Applebaum: People around the world now read news from Washington by first asking whether it is real.

Trump helped create that post-reality world by nurturing conspiracy theories and undermining trust in media. That is a classic authoritarian tactic. 2/
Applebaum: This is a war Trump does not want to think about.

He keeps looking for somebody else to blame and even decided to blame Europeans, who did not start the war, were not consulted about it, and have very little ability to end it. 3/
Applebaum: Trump seems to imagine Iran as a one-issue problem the US can solve by itself. He does not think strategically.

He does not think in second-, third-, or fourth-order consequences: jet fuel, airline prices, fertilizer markets, fuel shortages elsewhere. 4/
Applebaum: Europeans are beginning to worry that the US leadership has no idea what it is doing and is leading everyone toward global recession without seeming to care.

Trump rationalizes Russian and Chinese support for Iran, but lashes out at allies like Spain. 5X
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 22
Browder: How does Putin afford to keep fighting after four years? Oil and oil products. That is where the money comes from.

If we want to stop the invasion, we take away his money — and that means stopping Russia’s oil sales. 1/
Browder: Pausing sanctions does not create new jet fuel. Russia can still sell under sanctions — it just gets a lower price.

Removing pressure only redistributes profit back to Moscow. It does not solve shortages; it gives Putin more money. 2/
Browder: Zelenskyy is watching the West talk about sanctions, do them halfway, or delay them.

So Ukraine is sending drones into Russia and blowing up oil refineries — imposing its own oil sanctions because Western policy is fickle and half-hearted. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 22
Kellogg: Trump has been extremely measured with Iran, but negotiations should be broken off.

Seize Kharg Island. It controls 90% of Iran’s economy, puts the whole country at risk, especially the leadership, and creates leverage fast. 1/
Kellogg: Take the command-and-control hub for the Strait, put Marines there, line up Avenger-class minesweepers, and escort ships out on the Omani side.

Clear the Strait, take control of the situation, and stop trusting the IRGC. 2/
Kellogg: You do not have to invade Iran.

Take a couple of strategic choke points, take away the regime’s economy, strangle it, and build up resistance from inside. The government starts to fall when its survival is at stake. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 21
Keane: Iran’s regime does not care about the suffering of its people.

It thinks it can run out the clock, increase political and economic pressure on Trump, and use any negotiated deal to finance the regime’s recovery. 1/
Keane: Trump has shown huge patience since the April 8 ceasefire, but a deal does not seem possible.

The U.S. is on the cusp of returning to combat operations with Israel — full throttle, all out, no half measures. 2/
Keane: The next target list should include remaining weapons, nuclear remnants, the organizations sustaining the regime, and Iran’s revenue sources.

The goal is not just military pressure, but forcing economic collapse. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 21
Budanov: Russia is building a digital ghetto.

It wants to control people, complicate Ukrainian intelligence work, and prepare society for serious decisions that may be unpopular or hard to explain. That is why it cuts off alternative information. 1/
Budanov: Russia is replacing reality. In Moscow, there is a whole “museum of Ukrainian Nazism.”

It has nothing to do with reality, but it is built logically and professionally. A person who sees it can believe it — that is the danger. 2/
Budanov: Civil resistance under occupation must continue.

Every Ukrainian flag, every sign, every act is a connection with identity, state, history, culture and tradition. It is risky, but without it there will be full colonization. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 21
Budanov: Russia’s goals keep moving lower under pressure from reality. First it was “Kyiv in three days.”

After almost four years, it became “Donbas at any cost.” Now the new goal is Ukraine outside military alliances and without nuclear status. 1/
Budanov: Russia’s leadership lives in numbers, charts, economic and geopolitical forecasts — and those forecasts look bad for them.

There is no real optimism at the top. That is why their public narratives keep changing. 2/
Budanov: Russian society still lives by television, but a dangerous thought is already appearing: maybe Russia will still do something, but clearly something is going wrong.

That narrative exists, it threatens the regime, and they know it. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 21
Putin came to Beijing weaker than at his last visit. Moscow took 500+ drones three days earlier. Russia lost net territory last month for the first time since Aug 2024.

With Middle East crude squeezed, Xi now extracts energy on Beijing's terms — CNN. 1/ Image
Xi rolled out the red carpet anyway. Honor guard, gun salute, children with flags. The same welcome Trump received days earlier.

The substance diverged. Trump left without a joint statement. Putin signed one. 2/
Putin and Xi reiterated their "no limits" partnership and a "multipolar world." This is Putin's 25th visit to China in 25 years; they have met more than 40 times.

Putin used a Chinese idiom on his bond with Xi: "One day apart feels like three autumns." 3/
Read 10 tweets

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