Thread by @kirlant

As one who is often asked about RU domestic politics, I remained sceptical about the recent "intel report". There are several factual anomalies / obvious facts masqueraded as secrets that stand out. A short thread: 1/16 istories.media/en/stories/202…

Putin "fears the use of drones for a possible assassination attempt". This is a well-know fact. FSO operatives have been carrying portable drone interceptors for a while. 2/16

"Visitors to the Presidential Administration undergo two levels of screening, including a full body search by FSO officers." AFAIK, the PA has several layers of access. And two levels of screening (body search + scanners, I assume) are completely normal even in peacetime. 3/16

"The FSO has significantly reduced the list of locations regularly visited by the president." An aggressor state does not want to disclose the location of its commander in chief? Big if true. 4/16

"Putin has often taken refuge in renovated bunkers, particularly in the Krasnodar region, where he may work for weeks." These are also natural developments. The chief commander sits close to military decision-makers in a protected facility 5/16

https://x.com/krakek1/status/2051333322962346303?s=20

"FSO officers conduct large-scale checks using canine units and are also deployed along the Moscow River." So the FSO is conducting a routine check up procedures around the Kremlin when state leadership is in the city? 6/16

"Sergei Shoigu, [], who retains significant influence within the military command, is associated with the risk of a coup attempt." Military command or the MOD? Meanwhile, he and his daughter are running high-profile REM projects on Putin's behalf: 7/16 ecfr.eu/article/ore-an…

"The arrest of his former first deputy, Ruslan Tsalikov, on March 5, 2026, is seen as a violation of informal guarantees of safety for elites" In 2012, the whole ex-minister was interrogated as a witness in a purge after his removal. No coup. 8/16 kommersant.ru/doc/2259823

Also, is this the same Tsalikov who was using an iPhone at work in 2023? So the military will do a coup for Tsalikov's iPhone and his corrupt dachas, rather than for a relatively popular wartime figure like General Popov? 9/16 dossier.center/iphone-spy/

"The Chief of the General Staff also complained about a lack of personnel for the physical protection of officers in rear areas." Unrealistic, RUAF has GRU, military police, and dedicated security units for such purposes. 10/16

The FSB head "defended himself by stressing the impossibility of systematically preventing such attacks." Do the authors claim that the head of the chief internal security agency told Putin to his face that his service could not prevent sabotage? This is unrealistic 11/16

"Emphasizing that these attacks cause fear and disorganization within the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces." RU has sustained a huge war with a lot of KIAs, and are its officers are disorganised by the fear of death? The opposite is in their job description 12/16

"Vladimir Putin’s decision, made at the request of the General Staff, demonstrates the political weight of Valery Gerasimov, who succeeded in this "arbitration." This is as empty as it is actually contradictory.. -> 13/16

(1) Allegedly expanding enhanced protection has nothing to do with "political weight". It is an op. decision and has no influence on country's politics. (2) So Putin fears a military coup & simultaneously sides with the chief mil commander? 14/16

"The large-scale internet shutdowns in Moscow are carried out by the FSO rather than the FSB, as reported by some media outlets, had been told to Important Stories a month earlier by a former FSB officer." Or maybe it's the same FSB officer spreading the same rumour? 15/16

Therefore, I remain sceptical about this report. Even if such a coup threat were real and European agencies were aware of it, would they really leak this information? They could have sent a letter to the Kremlin to warn everyone there too then. 16/16

FWIW, don't get me wrong. I believe that there're probably some growing cracks in RU this year, as the war's going nowhere, the economy's getting worse, huge losses, UA strikes look bad and society is tired and wants the war to end. But the presented scenario looks unrealistic...