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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
May 4 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Macron: The Russian war against Ukraine revealed our over-dependence on Russian gas.

We are experiencing the cost of our over-dependence on the US in defense and security, and will probably experience the cost of our over-dependence vis-à-vis China.

1/
Macron: You cannot have sustainable strategic autonomy on defense if you are 100% dependent on other countries for semiconductors or food.

We experienced the cost of over-dependence in past years, including dependence on China.

2/
Macron: Democracy, rule of law, free trade, and climate through innovation create real links among allies. Our predictability on this agenda is a big advantage.

When I look at the Gulf, Asian countries, Latin America or Africa — they just want predictable partners

3X
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Please also consider donating to support Ukrainian students who study during the war if this cause resonates with you.

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 4
Kasparov: In Russia, tsars and dictators are forgiven everything except a bad war. If the war goes well, nobody cares how many die.

But when the ruler cannot win, discontent begins. That is the law of Russian history, and we are seeing it again now. 1/
Kasparov: There is no remorse in Russia for starting this war. The complaint is only that it cannot be won.

Ukraine is not striking homes. It is striking military, oil, and arms targets. Even that was enough to make Russians feel abandoned, exposed, and afraid. 2/
Kasparov: The key question is not what society thinks, but what Putin’s oil-and-gas beneficiaries think.

Strikes on Tuapse and Perm are not just “arrivals” to them. They are direct hits on cash flow, rents, and the business interests that hold the regime together. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 4
Zelenskyy: This summer, Putin will choose — escalate or move to talks.

We must increase pressure now to force him toward diplomacy.

1/
Zelenskyy: The Iran war is unresolved and risks long-term instability, higher energy prices, and political shifts.

We need real energy coordination, prepare for winter, and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

2/
Zelenskyy: Russia may hold its May 9 parade without military equipment — for the first time in years.

It suggests shortages and fear of drones over Moscow. A signal of weakness, not strength.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 3
Applebaum: Of course Orban was authoritarian. The fact that he gave up power peacefully proves nothing by itself.

What matters is what it took to beat him: 16 years in power, panic before the vote, and a campaign that felt to Hungarians like regime change. 1/
Applebaum: To defeat Orban, Peter Magyar had to endure bugging, sex-tape leaks, grotesque smears, and an 18-month grassroots campaign.

No democratic leader should have to go through that. That is what unwinding authoritarian rule looked like. 2/
Applebaum: There is a very narrow window to move fast after authoritarianism. In Poland, taking back state media quickly worked.

Moving slowly on the courts left a mess. That is one of the clearest lessons for Hungary now. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 3
Applebaum: Trump clearly did not expect the Iran war to last this long. He seems to have imagined it would be easy.

If people in the room told him otherwise, he ignored them. He knows very little about Iran and even seemed surprised by Hormuz and Iranian strikes. 1/
Applebaum: People around the world now read news from Washington by first asking whether it is real.

Trump helped create that post-reality world by nurturing conspiracy theories and undermining trust in media. That is a classic authoritarian tactic. 2/
Applebaum: This is a war Trump does not want to think about.

He keeps looking for somebody else to blame and even decided to blame Europeans, who did not start the war, were not consulted about it, and have very little ability to end it. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 3
The US, EU, Turkey and China all now compete with Russia for control over the Caucasus.

Armenia and Azerbaijan just ended a decades-long war, and that peace opened new energy and trade routes through the narrow strip linking Europe and Asia. — Bloomberg.

1/ Image
The US secured exclusive rights to develop the TRIPP corridor — a rail and road route across Armenia's south connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan.

The agreement extends to oil and gas pipelines and fiber optic networks for 99 years.

2/
The EU plans to strike a connectivity partnership with Armenia — a potential funding package of up to €2.5 billion.

The first-ever EU-Armenia summit takes place Tuesday. Armenia applied for EU membership last year.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 3
A group of five Ukrainian hackers tricked 2500 Russians into revealing their location — The Times.

They created a bot that posed as a group of cybercriminals. Russians asked to add their Starlinks to the database as Ukrainian. In exchange, they gave their crypto wallet.

1/
“Fucking Ukrainians, you are liars! Always find a way to take money. You are worse then Jews” — a Russian soldier after he was told that he was scammed by Ukrainian military.

After getting the wallet, the hacker group always revealed themselves to demmoralize Russians.

2/
Ukrainian hacker: Sometimes we create images of girls with AI and pretend to be them while talking to Russians on the frontline and recieve information from them.

This group also gained access to the location of Russian arms factories which were struck later.

3X
Read 5 tweets

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