Exencial Research Partners Profile picture
May 5 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵What if I told you that you could buy a world-class integrated steel plant for "free"?

There’s a massive valuation disconnect hiding in the Indian markets right now.

Let’s talk about Sunflag Iron & Steel (SUNFLAG) and why the smart money is watching.

(1/10)Image
Sunflag isn't a new kid on the block. Founded by the Sunflag Group (est. 1937).

• They’ve spent decades evolving from a textile venture in Kenya to a high-tech metallurgical powerhouse in India. This is industrial DNA at its finest.

(2/10)
Sunflag holds an 11% stake in Lloyds Metals. Today, that stake alone is worth ~₹7,000 Cr.

• The wild part? Sunflag’s own market cap is only ~₹5,800 Cr. The market is essentially giving you the steel business for less than zero.

(3/10)
Most steelmakers use scrap, which brings "tramp elements" (impurities). Sunflag uses a 100% iron ore route to produce "Clean Steel."

• This ultra-purity is mandatory for critical sectors like aerospace and defense.

(4/10)
They’ve successfully pivoted from commodity "spring steel" to high-moat Superalloys.

• We’re talking Nickel, Cobalt, and Iron-based materials that can survive 500 C+ inside aircraft engines. This is high-margin engineering, not just bulk steel.

(5/10)
The technical moat is reinforced by a strategic partnership with Japan’s Daido Steel.

• Daido holds a 10% stake and provides the tech blueprint, ensuring Sunflag stays ahead of global standards for high-precision automotive and engine components.

(6/10)
HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd) recently honored Sunflag for its contribution to aircraft engine manufacturing.

• As India pushes for "Atmanirbhar" (self-reliant) defense, Sunflag is the key player replacing expensive imports.

(7/10)
• Virtually debt-free (D/E ratio of 0.07).
• Reaffirmed CRISIL AA- rating.
• Trading at a steep discount to Book Value (~0.65x).

For professional investors, this represents a significant structural mispricing.

(8/10)
No play is without risks. Sunflag is tied to the automotive cycle (60% of revenue) and faces raw material volatility.

• However, they are aggressively bidding for captive mines to lock in costs and protect those margins.

(9/10)
Sunflag is bridging the gap between "Old School Value" and "Future Tech Growth."

• Between their solar energy JVs and a growing defense order book, the future looks as polished as their high-grade steel.

#Investing #SunflagSteel #ValueInvesting

(10/10)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Exencial Research Partners

Exencial Research Partners Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @exencial_RP

Apr 1
India's market is down 15% YTD. Every pundit says "buy the dip."

Bernstein just ran a reverse DCF on 94 large caps to find out what's actually priced in.

The answer will surprise you.

🧵Image
First, the index-level read.

Nifty-50 now prices in a long-term free cash flow CAGR of 10.5% — the third lowest in a decade, seen last at March 2021 levels.

Sounds cheap, right?

Context changes everything.
March 2021 had:

→ No geopolitical conflict
→ Earnings just beginning a strong upcycle
→ Crude at historic lows
→ No fiscal stress

Today has all four headwinds running simultaneously.
Same valuation number.

Completely different risk environment.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 26
🧵 Imagine owning a business that makes something every oil company needs, but almost no one else in India can build.

Meet Maharashtra Seamless Ltd (MSL). A almost debt-free giant with a monopoly-like grip on India’s energy infrastructure.

(1/10)Image
MSL is the king of Seamless Pipes. These aren't your average water pipes; they are high-tech steel tubes built for extreme pressure in deep-sea oil drilling.

• They are the ONLY ones in India making massive 20-inch pipes.

(2/10)
MSL controls a massive 55% of the Indian seamless pipe market. When giants like ONGC or Reliance need to drill for oil or gas, they call MSL.

• It’s a "Make in India" champion that replaced expensive imports with domestic muscle.

(3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Jan 6
The power grid is broken. It is heavy. It is ugly. It is stuck in the past.

Today, the bureaucracy wants to kill the magic. Here is the story. 🧵

#IEX #Energy #Investing #StockMarket #India #APTEL #CERC

1/10

@Sharad9DubeyImage
Today is D-Day. January 6, 2026. The APTEL court hears the case. 🏛️

The regulators (CERC) want to force something called "Market Coupling." It sounds boring. It is actually tyranny.

They want to break the machine that works. Why? 👇

2/10
We built something beautiful. IEX is not a utility. It is not a bank. It is an Experience. ✨

We took the chaos of electricity... and turned it into Order. We built a Matching Engine. It finds the perfect price. Instantly. It is not just code. It is Art. 🎨

3/10
Read 10 tweets
Jan 6
India Power : Outlook 2026.... from Energy Transition to Energy Addition...

In the coming year, we expect demand to recover to long term average, but those waiting for a big rebound might face disappointment as weather is not expected to be very supportive.

Renewables - We remain negative, and expect moderation in addition as slow tendering and grid constraints come to bite (& govt continues to reduce support).

Solar PV- The concern till now was supply, we think demand will disappoint as well. Nuclear - We expect real action with possibility of bulk ordering of equipments (supported by the latest bill).

Thermal - We remain positive and there is a possibility that Govt. could raise long term targets, though one should stay away from merchant players, in our view.

DISCOM - A bailout package is awaited, and the buzz on DISCOM privatization is likely to rise. BESS- Battery storage to finally hit the ground in India, moderating shortage risks.

Data-centers -Possibility of firm power off-take agreements by DCs could be a big driver for the broader sector.

Overall, we expect the sector to perform in line with market - with the only way for a broader out-performance being if weather surprises positively, Or if the data-center story gains strong traction.

INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS

Detailed Thread 🧵🧵Image
Image
Power sector coverage universe pecking order

Key catalysts for the year (Green- Positive, Red- Negative)

India power: After disapointing in FY26, we expect 0.8x of real GDP in FY27, post which we expect 1x of real GDP growth

DISCOMs - Key events in 2025, showcase a potential roadmap for CY26.Image
Image
Image
Image
Renewable capacity addition in India- Our estimates are much lower than industry estimates and govt. plans

Global utilities price to 12m forward earnings comparison

India Solar PV manufacturers DCR Cell production (CY'25) (MW)Image
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 5
Most companies wait for "Record Profits" to launch an IPO. 📈

They want to sell shares when the price is highest. Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) just did the opposite.

Their profits dropped 83% right before this IPO.

Why is this actually a good thing for smart investors?

Here is the story. 👇

#ValueInvesting #CoalIndia #StockMarket

(1/10)Image
BCCL is opening its IPO on January 9, 2026.

• It is owned by Coal India.

• They are selling 10% of the company to the public.
But before you look at the price, you need to understand what they actually sell.

(Hint: It is NOT fuel for electricity)

(2/10)
The Science (First Principles)

• Think of coal in two boxes:

1. Thermal Coal: Burned to make electricity. (Like a battery). ⚡

2. Coking Coal: Cooked to make Steel. (Like a chemical ingredient). 🦾

• BCCL mines the second one.

• They don't sell energy. They sell the strength inside your car and your house pillars.

(3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Jan 2
#ForceMotors is the most confusing car company in the world. 🤯

On the street, they make the rusty school bus that picks up your kids.

In the factory, they build the heart of the $150,000 Mercedes S-Class.

Here is the breakdown of the "Secret Sherpa" of the German auto industry. 🧵👇Image
First, ignore the stock price for a second.

To understand Force, you have to understand the "Matador."

If you grew up in India, this van was your ambulance, your school bus, and your family vacation car.

It was rugged, loud, and unkillable. But that unsexy van built an empire.
The company (formerly Bajaj Tempo) has deep German roots.

They started by partnering with Hanomag (who made tanks in WWII) and later Mercedes-Benz.

While others chased flashy marketing, the Firodia family obsessed over one thing: Engine casting.

This obsession created a business with two very different faces. 🎭
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(