India Power : Outlook 2026.... from Energy Transition to Energy Addition...

In the coming year, we expect demand to recover to long term average, but those waiting for a big rebound might face disappointment as weather is not expected to be very supportive.

Renewables - We remain negative, and expect moderation in addition as slow tendering and grid constraints come to bite (& govt continues to reduce support).

Solar PV- The concern till now was supply, we think demand will disappoint as well. Nuclear - We expect real action with possibility of bulk ordering of equipments (supported by the latest bill).

Thermal - We remain positive and there is a possibility that Govt. could raise long term targets, though one should stay away from merchant players, in our view.

DISCOM - A bailout package is awaited, and the buzz on DISCOM privatization is likely to rise. BESS- Battery storage to finally hit the ground in India, moderating shortage risks.

Data-centers -Possibility of firm power off-take agreements by DCs could be a big driver for the broader sector.

Overall, we expect the sector to perform in line with market - with the only way for a broader out-performance being if weather surprises positively, Or if the data-center story gains strong traction.

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Power sector coverage universe pecking order

Key catalysts for the year (Green- Positive, Red- Negative)

India power: After disapointing in FY26, we expect 0.8x of real GDP in FY27, post which we expect 1x of real GDP growth

DISCOMs - Key events in 2025, showcase a potential roadmap for CY26.

Most companies wait for "Record Profits" to launch an IPO. 📈

They want to sell shares when the price is highest. Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) just did the opposite.

Their profits dropped 83% right before this IPO.

Why is this actually a good thing for smart investors?

Here is the story. 👇

#ValueInvesting #CoalIndia #StockMarket

(1/10) BCCL is opening its IPO on January 9, 2026.

• It is owned by Coal India.

• They are selling 10% of the company to the public.
But before you look at the price, you need to understand what they actually sell.

(Hint: It is NOT fuel for electricity)

(2/10)

#ForceMotors is the most confusing car company in the world. 🤯

On the street, they make the rusty school bus that picks up your kids.

In the factory, they build the heart of the $150,000 Mercedes S-Class.

Here is the breakdown of the "Secret Sherpa" of the German auto industry. 🧵👇 First, ignore the stock price for a second.

To understand Force, you have to understand the "Matador."

If you grew up in India, this van was your ambulance, your school bus, and your family vacation car.

It was rugged, loud, and unkillable. But that unsexy van built an empire.

Japan Just Triggered a Global Liquidity Shock — And Crypto and Stocks Are the First Casualties

Japan’s 10-year yield has climbed to its highest point since the pre-GFC era.

Everyone is obsessing over the Federal Reserve, but the real earthquake in global markets isn’t coming from Washington.

It’s erupting out of Tokyo.

The sudden and violent jump in Japan’s long-term government bond yields, sparked by massive fiscal stimulus announced by the new Prime Minister, has sent a shockwave through the global funding system.

This isn’t a subtle macro move.

It’s a live liquidity crisis spreading across asset classes in real time.

Here’s the chain reaction nobody is connecting yet: 1) Japan’s long bonds are the foundation of global fixed income

For decades, Japan’s near-zero yields acted as a global anchor.

Japanese insurers, pensions, and corporate giants invest trillions abroad because domestic yields were too low.

When that anchor rises sharply and suddenly, every major bond market is forced to reprice:

* U.S. long-duration yields move up even as the Fed prepares to cut rates

* European government bonds reprice higher

* Corporate bond spreads widen globally

The world has been funding itself on ultra-low Japanese yields.

That subsidy is dying fast.

Bernstein On India Power: 5 developments... heading into Q2'26 results

1. TRANSMISSION LINE ADDITION CONTINUES TO DRAG, ALTHOUGH SOME MOMENTUM IN SUBSTATION ADDITION

While commissioning has picked up slightly compared to last quarter, against a target of 1,475 ckm by Power Grid in Q2FY26 only 28% got completed. On the substation additions as well, only 70% of the target was achieved. It appears that RoW issues continue to impact transmission commissioning timelines.

Only 28% of the planned transmisison lines were laid out by the central govt during Q2 - one of the lowest in the last few years likely due to RoW issues

Substation addition improved, though still missing target

2. TRANSMISSION CAPEX OPTIMIZATION AND RISING ROLE OF BESS

There is no doubt on the long capex story that will be there for transmission in India and globally, however BESS can help optimize the demand (unless India puts in import restrictions).

3. RENEWABLE ADDITIONS ON A ROLL, BUT PLFS DISAPPOINT

i) Capacity additions and PLFs

Capacity addition for developers clearly good, but earnings could disappoint given low PLFs, rising curtailment and low prices on solar hours on spot market.

Strong renewable addition in FY26 till now

Solar PLF quite soft, wind slightly better in Q2

ii) Rooftop solar (RTS) additions and solar PV market

A very strong quarter for most solar PV players, though we would keep an eye out for commentary on prices and exports to US

Monthly rooftop solar capacity additions have almost doubled in the recent months

Domestic cell producers to benefit the most from the rooftop solar additions

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incrementum || SILVER

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