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May 5 24 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/ Russia's (allegedly) most incompetent general says he plans to stand for election in Tatarstan as a candidate for Vladimir Putin's United Russia party. Russian warbloggers are unimpressed at Colonel General Alexander Lapin's continued failure upward. ⬇️ Image
2/ Lapin has repeatedly been dismissed from his positions since the start of the Ukraine war, and has attracted a great deal of criticism – likely justified – for his failures in command. Now retired, this unpopularity has not stopped him from declaring his candidacy:
3/ "At this stage in my life, I have a great desire to serve my multinational people, to defend the interests of my small homeland, to help people, to fight for truth, to fight for justice, to defend the interests of our republic and, as a whole, our great Motherland – Russia."
4/ "According to the 'Pose Panda' Telegram channel, "It was previously reported that this initiative originated with Tatarstan leader Rustam Minnikhanov, who has a long-standing friendship with Lapin, a native of Kazan."
5/ "General Lapin has commanded the troops of the Central Military District since 2017. Since the beginning of the Special Military Operation, he has repeatedly found himself at the center of high-profile scandals—as the saying goes, there's no room for reprisals. Image
6/ "For example, in May 2022, he commanded the crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River, which resulted in the loss of approximately 400 soldiers and up to 100 pieces of military equipment.
7/ "That same month, he publicly presented an award to his son, Lieutenant Colonel Denis Lapin, a tanker who commanded the 1st Tank Regiment, part of the Taman Division. Image
8/ "Under his command, tankers participated in the offensive on Sumy and Chernihiv, but retreated with heavy losses. In June of that year, the general himself was awarded the title Hero of Russia.
9/ "Lapin is also known for the fact that under his command, in September 2022, the Russian Armed Forces abandoned more than a dozen settlements in the Kharkiv region, suffering defeats, including at Izyum, Liman, and Balakliya.
10/ "Heavy fighting is currently underway for the liberation of Kupyansk and Vovchansk.

In October 2022, Lapin held a pistol to the head of a mobilized lieutenant, company commander Dmitry Vodnev. This occurred near Svatove (LPR).
11/ "General Lapin, who had arrived at the mobilised troops' location, was displeased that the officer was reluctant to commit his unprepared subordinates to battle. He held a pistol to Vodnev's temple, after which the general's guards tied Vodnev's hands and brutally beat him.
12/ "The torture didn't end there: the officer was held for some time without food at the commandant's office in Valuyki. He agreed to return to the front and carry out combat missions, but under a different commander.
13/ "Then, in late October 2022, after harshly criticizing Ramzan Kadyrov for the failures of the offensive near Liman, Lapin was dismissed as commander of the Centre Group of Forces.
14/ "For some time, little was known about the general until, in the spring of 2024, he took command of the Leningrad Military District and the Northern Group of Forces.
15/ "Incidentally, the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal named General Lapin as one of the culprits behind the Ukrainian Armed Forces' breach of the border in the Kursk region in August 2024.
16/ "However, many Russian military officials and military bloggers also accused him of the same.
17/ "Three months before the Ukrainian Armed Forces' invasion, Lapin dissolved the interdepartmental council for the defense of the Kursk region, thereby weakening border defenses, as the body he dissolved united military and security officials.
18/ "For this reason, among other things, the efforts of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces were chaotic and ineffective, allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to gain a foothold and engage in unrest in the Kursk region for six months.
19/ "In August 2025, Lapin was removed from his position as commander of the "North" group of forces, and in September he was dismissed from military service.
20/ "It would seem he had faded into oblivion, but no: soon, information surfaced that he had taken the position of assistant to Minnikhanov. Now it has become known that General Lapin plans to run for the State Duma from Tatarstan.
21/ "Two questions: why hasn't Lapin been held accountable for all his criminal military misdeeds that resulted in the deaths of soldiers, and why do we need him in the State Duma?
22/ "So, instead of being punished for all his failures at the front, which resulted in the loss of territory and the deaths of civilians and our servicemen,…
23/ …this absolutely incompetent military commander is now blazing a trail to the State Duma to lecture everyone on how to love the Motherland? Surreal and absurd.
24/ "After all, a victorious United Russia primary will undoubtedly be handed to him on a silver platter, and he'll get into the State Duma. Instead of serving time and felling trees. Whatever, it's unfair." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/panda_news_pan…
🔹 t.me/panda_news_pan…

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

May 5
1/ The world is very rapidly running out of refined fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, according to a new Goldman Sachs report, with only 45 days' worth of stockpiles of jet fuel, naphtha, and LPG remaining. Rationing, surcharges, and mass cancellations are forecast. ⬇️ Image
2/ A research note authored by Goldman Sachs strategists Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven has examined the impact of Middle East disruptions on refined product markets, finding that jet fuel and diesel are being hit far harder than crude oil.
3/ The analysts estimate that about 101 days' worth of usable global oil stocks remain in stockpiles. (While more oil than that is stockpiled, it can't all be used, as the JP Morgan report summarised below explains.)
Read 25 tweets
May 4
1/ Oil prices will rise to at least $140 per barrel by June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by July, and will not return to pre-Iran War levels before 2028 even in a best-case scenario, predicts Goldman Sachs. It warns of price surges and major economic impacts. ⬇️ Image
2/ A new report from Goldman Sachs predicts that 14.5 million barrels per day of production have been lost in April 2026. Global stockpiles are being drained at a record 11-12 mb/d which, as JP Morgan has noted, risks a cliff-edge drop in oil supplies.
3/ The longer the blockade continues, the worse the damage becomes. Goldman predicts that in all but the best-case scenario, there will be permanent reductions ("scarring") in Gulf oil production of between 0.5 mb/d and 2.5 mb/d.
Read 25 tweets
May 3
1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, "price increases become exponential rather than linear." Image
2/ The exponential point is reached at $250 per barrel, which is well within the range of realistic possibilities predicted by many analysts. Linearity breaks down because of:
3/ ♦️ Refinery margin blowouts — refineries pass through higher feedstock costs at elevated rates under stress

♦️ Speculation and panic premiums — markets take fright and price in fear, not just fundamentals
Read 19 tweets
May 2
1/ The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. ⬇️ Image
2/ A month ago, JP Morgan published a report highlighting that the last oil shipments from the Persian Gulf countries would be delivered by 20th April. That date has come and gone, and oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed.
3/ Limited amounts of Gulf oil have continued to be pumped via pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. However, instead of producing enough oil supply to meet global demand, the world has been relying on emergency stockpiles. Image
Read 26 tweets
May 2
1/ Russia faces being surrounded by Europe's mightiest power - the United Kingdom. In a commentary that highlights Russian nationalists' peculiar obsession with Britain, a warblogger predicts doom unless a military alliance is formed with China, North Korea, and Iran. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Tungsten' writes:

""Azerbaijan, right next door, is beginning joint production with Ukraine of anti-drone systems, FPV drones, and naval unmanned aerial vehicles.

Britain's southern thrust is on our North Caucasus through Armenia."
3/ "Norway, Denmark, and Sweden, together with Ukraine, will begin producing air defence systems and equipment for combat operations in the Arctic and North Atlantic, along the border with Russia, starting in June of this year.
Read 6 tweets
May 1
1/ Russian soldiers in the Kherson region complain that they've been forbidden to shoot down Ukrainian drones. This may be related to Russians elsewhere shooting down their own drones, sticking swastikas on the wings, and claiming they're Ukrainian. ⬇️
2/ A soldier writes to the 'Svarschiki' Telegram channel:

"Hello, I’m from the Kherson direction. Over us, the asshole fart-planes constantly fly by, their wings roam completely freely, and at night the Bony One [Death] does whatever the hell it wants…"
3/ "Three months ago we proposed to the command the idea of air defence against airplane-type drones and training the crews at the training ground.
Read 7 tweets

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