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May 7 2 tweets 4 min read Read on X
CENTCOM confirms USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason were targeted by Iranian missiles, drones, and small boats while transiting the Strait of Hormuz tonight. No US vessels were hit.

US forces intercepted the attacks and carried out self-defense strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command centers, and ISR facilities. Confirmed targets include Qeshm Port, Bandar Abbas, and Bandar Kargan naval checkpoint in Minab (via @JenGriffinFNC).

Iran's IRGC Navy claims it launched anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and kamikaze drones at the three destroyers. Claims all three were damaged and forced to withdraw. CENTCOM says zero damage. The scripted military intelligence statement broadcast twice on IRIB state television tonight was fabricated.

Truxtun and Mason are the same destroyers that transited on May 4 during Project Freedom. They went back through.

Additional Iranian media reports identify strikes at Bandar Khamir, Sirik, and the Jask region. Coast guard base in Minab port city also struck. Aerial activity reported in Shiraz, Fars Province, an inland target suggesting the campaign expanded beyond coastal IRGC Navy infrastructure.

Air defense activity was reported in western Tehran with visual confirmation of active anti-aircraft fire over the city. Al Jazeera's Tehran correspondent noted that small drone incursions over Tehran have occurred multiple times in recent weeks during the ceasefire and suggested this may be separate from the Strait engagement. Whether connected or not, AAA is firing over the Iranian capital tonight.

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters issued a formal statement accusing the US of violating the ceasefire "in cooperation with regional countries" and threatening that Gulf states' support "has not gone unnoticed."

Secretary Rubio approved $25.8 billion in emergency arms sales to Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE.

Final TLV/Al Dhafra tanker tally: 47 sorties. All time high, breaking the May 4 record.

Full timeline below.Image
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TIMELINE OF TONIGHT'S ENGAGEMENT:

Yesterday (May 6): F/A-18 off the USS Abraham Lincoln disabled Iranian tanker M/T Hasna with 20mm cannon fire to the rudder. Blockade enforcement action.

Today before the engagement:

CIA assessment leaked to Washington Post: Iran retains 75% of pre-war mobile launchers, 70% of missile stockpiles, can survive blockade 90-120 days. One official: Iran's leadership is "more radical and increasingly confident they can outlast US political will."

Pezeshkian claimed a 2.5-hour meeting with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. First Alleged contact since Feb 28. They CLAIM Mojtaba alive but injured. Pezeshkian demanded US blockade lifted before Hormuz negotiations.

Iran established Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) with 40-question transit document. Mojtaba Khamenei posted calling for "a new regional and global order."

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restored US military basing access. Three E-11A SOF communications aircraft activated near Iran for the first time. RQ-4B Global Hawk from Sigonella. P-8A Poseidon from Djibouti. SOF positioned in Kuwait.

47 aerial refueling sorties from TLV and Al Dhafra, UAE. All time high.

Israel Channel 12 citing senior US official: military option returns if no deal before Trump returns from China.

The engagements:

23:15 Tehran time: Iran fires 7-8 missiles from southern Hormozgan shore batteries at USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason transiting the Strait. Iran frames this as retaliation for the Hasna.

All attacks intercepted. Zero US damage. US forces return fire.

US self-defense strikes confirmed on: missile and drone launch sites, command centers, ISR facilities.

US-confirmed targets (via @JenGriffinFNC citing senior official):
1. Qeshm Port
2. Bandar Abbas
3. Bandar Kargan naval checkpoint, Minab

Senior US official: "Does not constitute a restart of the war."

Additional targets per Iranian media: Bandar Khamir, Sirik, Jask region, coast guard base in Minab port city. Six to seven coastal locations from west to east. The entire IRGC Navy coastal defense network along the Hormozgan coast.

Aerial activity reported in Shiraz, Fars Province. Inland, not coastal. Campaign expanding beyond Strait infrastructure.

IRIB state television broadcast a prepared military intelligence statement twice word for word claiming US ships sustained damage and were forced to flee. CENTCOM confirmed zero damage. The statement was fabricated.

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters formal statement: US violated ceasefire by targeting Iranian tanker near Jask and another vessel near Fujairah, then struck coastal areas "in cooperation with regional countries." Iran claims it retaliated against US ships east of the Strait and south of Chabahar, causing "severe damage."

IRGC Navy claims it used anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and kamikaze drones. CENTCOM says all intercepted.

Iran's Central Military HQ: "Some countries on the shores of the Persian Gulf supported the US in tonight's aggression, and that has not gone unnoticed." Threatening multiple Gulf states.

Air defense activity in western Tehran with visual confirmation of active anti-aircraft fire over the capital. Al Jazeera's Tehran correspondent noted small drone incursions have been intercepted multiple times during the ceasefire and suggested this may be separate from the Strait engagement. Whether connected or not, AAA is firing over Tehran tonight.

Iran droned Kurdish PAK party in Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Hezbollah fired mortars and rockets at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. Airstrikes on Nabatieh, southern Lebanon.

Reports of additional fighter jets departing the UK.

Rubio approved $25.8B in emergency arms sales to five Gulf partners.

Al Jazeera's correspondent assessment: "Limited skirmishes" that may be "escalation to de-escalate" ahead of Islamabad negotiations. Operations may have stopped for now.

CENTCOM assessment: Self-defense response to unprovoked Iranian attacks. Not a restart of the war.

The 14-point MOU was supposed to be answered today.

Looking forward to tonight's Space at 8 PM ET with a great lineup of experts to break all of this all down

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More from @ThePowerAudit

May 8
Recap of tonight's Hormuz Crisis Expert Panel:

Tonight I hosted a 2.5 hour expert panel on the Hormuz crisis. Eight speakers across military strategy, energy markets, information warfare, China and the Indo-Pacific, the Kurdish frontline from a journalist on the ground in Iraq, and a voice from inside Iran that will stay with everyone who heard it. Without editing or applying my opinion, here is what was covered and said.
MILITARY (Matt Tardio @angertab , 18C 10th SFG)

Matt opened with the strategic picture: Iran is controlling two critical waterways through terror tactics, the Red Sea via the Houthis and the Strait of Hormuz directly. The combination of both would be catastrophic for global trade, especially the EU. He emphasized that 50,000+ US troops, 200+ aircraft, and two carrier strike groups are deployed. This is the largest US force posture in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. The ceasefire exists on paper but skirmishes are continuous. Both sides are demonstrating capability as leverage for negotiations.
KURDISH SITUATION (Wladimir van Wilgenburg, journalist based in Iraqi Kurdistan @vvanwilgenburg )

Wladimir reported live from the ground.
21 people killed in Iraqi Kurdistan since February 28 from Iranian drone strikes. Iranian Kurdish parties have approximately 10,000 fighters willing to operate against the regime but are awaiting a green light from the US and Israel. Despite the April 8 ceasefire, Iran continues daily drone attacks on Kurdish opposition parties. Three attacks on three different Kurdish parties happened today alone. Iraq is pressuring Kurdish authorities to move these opposition groups away from border areas. Trump has discussed arming protesters through Kurdish channels, but Kurdish sources deny receiving weapons and argue distribution would be nearly impossible logistically.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 29
Last night between midnight and 5 AM Iran time, the US either ran a strike feint, or actually prepped a strike and called it off. I was tracking it in real time. I attempt to maintain a data focus with war gaming what the data says possible outcomes are, build predictive data checkpoints for the different possibilities, and falsifiable ones to avoid bias. Here is what the data showed, what Iran did in response, and why this morning looks very different than last night.Image
The air picture at peak around 22:30 UTC: 3 tankers airborne over Israel simultaneously. KC-135Rs and a KC-46A, roughly 612,000 lbs of offload fuel which is enough for a 12-15 fighter strike package. 4 C-17s confirmed at Amman, an MC-130J SOF aircraft out of Amman, E-3C Sentry AWACS on station over the Gulf at 30,000 ft oriented toward Iran, and 3 C-17 deception approaches at Tel Aviv where they filed approaches, turned back, and redirected east.Image
On the water it got more interesting. Iranian NET-prefix small craft deployed from Iranian ports into the central strait approach between Larak and Kumzar. These are Class B AIS vessels and they line up with IRGC mining doctrine. Iran has an estimated 5,000+ mine inventory. Then anomalous high speed transits started showing up mid-channel, 41 knots, 53 knots, 34 knots in waters where commercial vessels max at 16. Either IRGC fast attack craft running without proper ID or AIS spoofing. Either way its a signal.
They all stood down within hours of the WSJ piece dropping.
Read 19 tweets

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