Recap of tonight's Hormuz Crisis Expert Panel:

Tonight I hosted a 2.5 hour expert panel on the Hormuz crisis. Eight speakers across military strategy, energy markets, information warfare, China and the Indo-Pacific, the Kurdish frontline from a journalist on the ground in Iraq, and a voice from inside Iran that will stay with everyone who heard it. Without editing or applying my opinion, here is what was covered and said. MILITARY (Matt Tardio @angertab , 18C 10th SFG)

Matt opened with the strategic picture: Iran is controlling two critical waterways through terror tactics, the Red Sea via the Houthis and the Strait of Hormuz directly. The combination of both would be catastrophic for global trade, especially the EU. He emphasized that 50,000+ US troops, 200+ aircraft, and two carrier strike groups are deployed. This is the largest US force posture in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. The ceasefire exists on paper but skirmishes are continuous. Both sides are demonstrating capability as leverage for negotiations.

Last night between midnight and 5 AM Iran time, the US either ran a strike feint, or actually prepped a strike and called it off. I was tracking it in real time. I attempt to maintain a data focus with war gaming what the data says possible outcomes are, build predictive data checkpoints for the different possibilities, and falsifiable ones to avoid bias. Here is what the data showed, what Iran did in response, and why this morning looks very different than last night. The air picture at peak around 22:30 UTC: 3 tankers airborne over Israel simultaneously. KC-135Rs and a KC-46A, roughly 612,000 lbs of offload fuel which is enough for a 12-15 fighter strike package. 4 C-17s confirmed at Amman, an MC-130J SOF aircraft out of Amman, E-3C Sentry AWACS on station over the Gulf at 30,000 ft oriented toward Iran, and 3 C-17 deception approaches at Tel Aviv where they filed approaches, turned back, and redirected east.