Last night between midnight and 5 AM Iran time, the US either ran a strike feint, or actually prepped a strike and called it off. I was tracking it in real time. I attempt to maintain a data focus with war gaming what the data says possible outcomes are, build predictive data checkpoints for the different possibilities, and falsifiable ones to avoid bias. Here is what the data showed, what Iran did in response, and why this morning looks very different than last night. The air picture at peak around 22:30 UTC: 3 tankers airborne over Israel simultaneously. KC-135Rs and a KC-46A, roughly 612,000 lbs of offload fuel which is enough for a 12-15 fighter strike package. 4 C-17s confirmed at Amman, an MC-130J SOF aircraft out of Amman, E-3C Sentry AWACS on station over the Gulf at 30,000 ft oriented toward Iran, and 3 C-17 deception approaches at Tel Aviv where they filed approaches, turned back, and redirected east.