🚨 Caputo is quietly building an Argentine Fannie Mae through the FGS pension fund. No DNU. No Congress. Without touching Decree 1039.
It's the institutional piece Argentina has been missing for 24 years. And it can decide October 2027. 🧵👇
It's the institutional piece Argentina has been missing for 24 years. And it can decide October 2027. 🧵👇
Private sector credit as % of GDP: Chile +130%. Brazil 70%. Uruguay 35%. Argentina: 12-15%.
Household NPLs jumped from 2.5% to 11.5% in 17 months. Five times higher.
Argentina's credit system is clinically broken.
Household NPLs jumped from 2.5% to 11.5% in 17 months. Five times higher.
Argentina's credit system is clinically broken.
The legal play: The FGS subscribes mortgage-backed fiduciary securities under articles i (25%) and k (30%) of Law 24.241.
It doesn't buy mortgages. It buys MBS.
Capacity: 100,000 mortgages a year. No money printing. No fiscal deficit.
It doesn't buy mortgages. It buys MBS.
Capacity: 100,000 mortgages a year. No money printing. No fiscal deficit.
If activated before mid-2026: mobilized urban hedged coalition, construction adds 2-3% to GDP, runoff from advantageous position.
If delayed: the plan collapses at the wire and Kicillof enters the game.
The pivot variable is the FGS.
If delayed: the plan collapses at the wire and Kicillof enters the game.
The pivot variable is the FGS.
But even in the best scenario, the surplus voter remains the majority.
Argentina can rebuild credit for a formal, dollarized, propertied coalition. Not necessarily for the majority that needs credit to exist economically.
Full paper: 👇
🇦🇷💪 open.substack.com/pub/andytrader…
Argentina can rebuild credit for a formal, dollarized, propertied coalition. Not necessarily for the majority that needs credit to exist economically.
Full paper: 👇
🇦🇷💪 open.substack.com/pub/andytrader…
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