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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
May 9 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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“If Russia tried to seize Kyiv again, it would be the biggest bloodbath in world history. Two million drones would swarm over the tanks and burn them mercilessly.”

The Guardian: Madyar is Russia’s top assassination target after Zelenskyy. 1/ Image
Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, leads the 414th brigade — the unit that has made Putin cancel tanks at this Saturday’s Victory Day parade for the first time in nearly 20 years. 2/
Brovdi acknowledges a “symbolic” attack on Red Square would generate headlines. But: “Why waste drones on the great wall? If you hit the energy sector or military — that’s the best strike, on the periphery.” 3/
His brigade hit the Tuapse oil terminal four times in two weeks, struck Baltic ports Primorsk and Ust-Luga, reached the Urals and is knocking out Russian air defense systems faster than Moscow can rebuild them. 4/
100 million tonnes of Russian oil worth $100 billion per year is exported from ports within range of his drones. Putin spends 40% of his $530 billion budget on the military. 5/
Madyar: “The fires destroying ports are the path to victory. This will crash Russia’s economy so it can no longer fund its costly war.” 6/
In April Russia lost more territory than it gained for the first time since 2024. For the fifth consecutive month the Kremlin is losing more soldiers than it recruits — 30,000 to 34,000 per month. 7/
Madyar: “This affects the combat capability of the Russian army, reducing its offensive potential. That is a fact.” He receives 12-15 terabytes of raw video footage every day. Every death is documented and verified. 8/
Madyar: “NATO countries have not yet grasped they need to overhaul their armies. Their generals trained when nobody gave a damn about drones. Russia will not stop. Neither you nor we have time.” 9/
Madyar: “I’m under no illusions an end to the war is possible in the near future. At best we’re talking about a pause. That pause will merely give Putin the chance to regroup. He is afflicted with an incurable disease of power.” 10X
Source: theguardian.com/world/2026/may…
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 9
Trump expected another Venezuela — days, a toppled regime, a victory lap.

Instead Iran mined Hormuz, shut 20% of global oil flows, and turned gas prices and polls into the real front.

Iran does not need to win militarily. Iran needs to make the exit humiliating — The Atlantic. 1/Image
Trump can sell almost any paper as a win. He cannot sell a war with no ending.

The White House is still waiting for Iran to answer a one page memorandum that extends a cease fire, not a treaty. 2/
Gas prices and polls do not wait. Republicans get the complaints at the pump, not in Situation Room briefings.

Trump wants the war to end before it wrecks a midterm year. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 9
Applebaum: Ukrainian drone technology now lets Kyiv control the frontline almost completely.

Ukrainians can see everything, making it very hard for Russians to move, and, by Ukrainian counts, kill more Russians each month than Russia can recruit. 1/
Applebaum: Ukraine’s long-range drones are now repeatedly hitting major Russian targets far beyond the border.

Refineries, pumping stations, and other oil-and-gas infrastructure, producing huge black smoke and knocking big facilities out for long periods. 2/
Applebaum: Putin and the regime have become paranoid about Ukraine’s ability to hit Moscow and maybe even target leaders.

That is why the internet keeps going down in Moscow and other cities and why, around the May 9 parade, it is almost completely shut. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 9
Former Russian PM Kasyanov: There is no real threat to Putin's life from inner circle, but Putin is increasing his security because problems are growing.

Attitudes toward the war and Putin’s regime are changing. 62% of Russians want to stop the war and move to negotiations.

1/
Kasyanov: Victory Day has always been a major date for Putin, and he has used it a lot. The parade sends a strong signal to the world.

I think we may hear him speak about ending the war soon, but only on his own terms. Still, the situation is moving and changing.

2/
Kasyanov: Ukraine has an advantage in drone attacks at all ranges. But the key now is transatlantic unity: Europe sees an aggressor and a victim.

Trump’s administration sees two guilty sides. Why should Ukraine make concessions?

3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 9
Putin: Russian soldiers are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. And despite this, Russia’s heroes are moving forward.

The great feat of the victorious generation inspires our soldiers carrying out the special military operation today. 1/
Putin: No matter how military technology and methods of combat change, the main thing remains unchanged: people decide the fate of the country.

Russia’s success rests on moral strength, courage, valor, unity and the ability to endure any trial.

2/
Putin: Russia has a common goal. Every Russian makes a personal contribution to victory — both on the battlefield and in the rear. Russia’s cause is just.

Russians are together. Victory has always been and will always be Russia’s. Glory to the victorious people!

3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 8
Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Mobilization must change because war itself changed.

Drones and robotic systems reshaped the battlefield, making old mass-army models obsolete. For the first time in history, robots entered war at scale.

1/ Image
Zaluzhnyi: Russia tried to break the battlefield deadlock with new technology and tactics, but the result stayed the same: old-style offensives in a machine war only turn soldiers into expendable manpower that constantly needs replacement.

2/
Zaluzhnyi: After losing battlefield initiative, Ukraine had to react to Russia’s moves across the front, often at high cost.

Russia built a strategy around grinding down Ukrainian forces through massive losses, betting casualties would break Ukrainian society first.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 8
Xi believes time will deliver Taiwan. Each year, Beijing builds economic, military, and diplomatic leverage that he expects to make unification unavoidable.

The first major test comes in 2028 — Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie Glaser, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Image
Beijing's confidence comes from 2025. It hit Trump's tariffs with rare-earth export curbs and watched Washington back down.

DeepSeek showed China can match US AI models at a fraction of the cost. 2/
Inside Taiwan, the KMT-TPP majority is blocking a $40B special defense budget.

They want a smaller arms package from the US instead. That cooperation keeps a China-friendly 2028 ticket alive. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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