A German friend told me today he was struck by how Ukraine seemed to be regaining control over the dynamics of the war. I would not call it a strategic turn yet. But the shift is real. Here are three reasons why👇
1. Moscow’s model of war has stumbled.
That model rested on four assumptions: Ukraine would be exhausted; the West would walk away; Ukraine’s energy system and economy would collapse; and Kyiv would fail to solve its problems both in the rear and on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, Putin’s supposed genius would keep Russia on top, while its economy and society would absorb any cost.
Putin miscalculated across the board—partially in some cases, completely in others. Moscow is not yet losing the war. But it is losing its model of war, and that failure is becoming visible.
That model rested on four assumptions: Ukraine would be exhausted; the West would walk away; Ukraine’s energy system and economy would collapse; and Kyiv would fail to solve its problems both in the rear and on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, Putin’s supposed genius would keep Russia on top, while its economy and society would absorb any cost.
Putin miscalculated across the board—partially in some cases, completely in others. Moscow is not yet losing the war. But it is losing its model of war, and that failure is becoming visible.
2. The air combat balance has changed.
In the first five months of 2026, Ukraine restored a qualitative edge in drones and narrowed the gap in long-range strike power.
Protection against ballistic missiles remains Ukraine’s key vulnerability. Otherwise, its air defence and strike capabilities have grown stronger. Russia, meanwhile, has lost the ability to simply press by mass, guarantee advances on the front, and shield its rear from Ukrainian strikes.
The result is clear: pressure on Ukraine has stabilized, while pressure on Russia has increased.
In the first five months of 2026, Ukraine restored a qualitative edge in drones and narrowed the gap in long-range strike power.
Protection against ballistic missiles remains Ukraine’s key vulnerability. Otherwise, its air defence and strike capabilities have grown stronger. Russia, meanwhile, has lost the ability to simply press by mass, guarantee advances on the front, and shield its rear from Ukrainian strikes.
The result is clear: pressure on Ukraine has stabilized, while pressure on Russia has increased.
3. Ukrainian society did not break.
Russia tried to break Ukrainians from the outside. Hardship tested them from within. Bombings. Rising fuel and living costs. Mobilisation problems. Corruption scandals. The most brutal winter yet due to attacks on civilian infrastructure.
And yet Ukrainians understand the price of defeat. That is why they continue, almost miraculously, to endure. Once again, they proved too hard for Putin to break.
Russia tried to break Ukrainians from the outside. Hardship tested them from within. Bombings. Rising fuel and living costs. Mobilisation problems. Corruption scandals. The most brutal winter yet due to attacks on civilian infrastructure.
And yet Ukrainians understand the price of defeat. That is why they continue, almost miraculously, to endure. Once again, they proved too hard for Putin to break.
Bottom line: this spring showed that Ukrainians did not break. And for the first time since 2023, Ukraine has been better than Russia at fixing the problems of its war machine.
Together, these factors produced a cumulative effect. And its consequences eventually became visible to everyone at the same time, in the same place: on May 9, at the parade in Moscow.
The shift is real. Ukraine has not yet seized the strategic initiative from Russia. But Putin can no longer pretend that his current model is working. He is definitely not ready to give up though. The battle of national effectiveness continues.
Together, these factors produced a cumulative effect. And its consequences eventually became visible to everyone at the same time, in the same place: on May 9, at the parade in Moscow.
The shift is real. Ukraine has not yet seized the strategic initiative from Russia. But Putin can no longer pretend that his current model is working. He is definitely not ready to give up though. The battle of national effectiveness continues.
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