A German friend told me today he was struck by how Ukraine seemed to be regaining control over the dynamics of the war. I would not call it a strategic turn yet. But the shift is real. Here are three reasons why👇 1. Moscow’s model of war has stumbled.

That model rested on four assumptions: Ukraine would be exhausted; the West would walk away; Ukraine’s energy system and economy would collapse; and Kyiv would fail to solve its problems both in the rear and on the battlefield.

Meanwhile, Putin’s supposed genius would keep Russia on top, while its economy and society would absorb any cost.

Putin miscalculated across the board—partially in some cases, completely in others. Moscow is not yet losing the war. But it is losing its model of war, and that failure is becoming visible.

In our today’s call, @TrussLiz and I coordinated efforts to step up pressure on Russia. I look forward to the next round of UK sanctions. We both agreed that no one in the world has a right to get weary of this war until Ukraine prevails 1/2 .@TrussLiz and I strongly condemned the sham trial against prisoners of war in the Russian-occupied Donetsk. As combatants, they are protected by international humanitarian law and must be treated accordingly. We keep working together to ensure their release 2/2

We have officially triggered the risk reduction mechanism in accordance with para. III of the Vienna Document, and requested Russia to provide detailed explanations on military activities in the areas adjacent to the territory of Ukraine and in the temporarily occupied Crimea 1/4 According to the Vienna Document, Russia needs to provide detailed explanation on the objectives, precise location and dates of completion of its military activities, as well as designation, subordination, number and types of formations, as well as types of equipment involved 2/4

Ми офіційно застосували механізм зменшення небезпеки, згідно з розділом ІІІ Віденського документа, та звернулися до Російської Федерації з запитом надати детальні роз’яснення щодо військової діяльності у районах, прилеглих до території України та в тимчасово окупованому Криму 1/4 Згідно з положеннями Віденського документа, РФ має надати точні райони проведення військової діяльності, повідомити дати її завершення, а також найменування, підпорядкованість, кількість військових формувань; також типи озброєнь та військової техніки, які беруть у ній участь 2/4