General Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:
Since 2023, significant changes have taken place on the battlefield, giving rise to an entirely new type of warfare shaped by emerging tools and the far-reaching consequences of this transformation. 1/17
At that time, the emergence of new tools such as unmanned systems made the battlefield increasingly transparent, creating a so-called deadlock that made the achievement of operational and strategic objectives extremely difficult. 2/17
Since then, Russia has done substantial work to find a way out of this deadlock. 3/17
Despite its extensive technical arsenal and attempts to break the stalemate through tactical actions combined with new technological solutions, the result has remained obvious: in a war of machines, people can achieve only limited success using old principles of operational art.
Yet in this process, people themselves become expendable material that naturally requires constant replenishment. 5/17
Unfortunately, after ceding the initiative on the battlefield to Russia, Ukraine was forced not only to respond to emerging challenges, but also to react to the enemy’s systematic efforts across nearly all sectors of the front. 6/17
In doing so, it often had to rely on similar methods and, inevitably, at times paid an extremely high price in casualties. 7/17
The issue of mobilization and the methods by which it is conducted are increasingly becoming the center of conflict between the country’s population and the Ukrainian state authorities. 8/17
Today, only a very limited number of personnel remain at the frontline, carrying out tasks at the limits of human endurance, often without even the physical possibility of rotation. 9/17
Remaining in shelter, even in the enemy’s rear, is often safer than moving back toward one’s own rear positions. In the second echelon operate analytical support teams, technical maintenance and support personnel for combat systems, as well as their security elements. 10/17
The launch, coordination, and command centers themselves are located in operational depth.
Strategic targets have shifted toward the destruction of the economy through strikes on infrastructure and the weakening of societal resilience through attacks on civilian objects. 11/17
The boundaries between the front and the rear have effectively disappeared; the entire territory of the state and, unfortunately, the entire population have become part of the battlespace. 12/17
All of this creates the need for so-called “smart mobilization,” designed around scientific and technological progress. 13/17
An excellent example of such smart mobilization is the gradual transfer of certain wartime functions to private military companies or the financial incentivization of those who voluntarily participate in the war effort. 14/ 17
The second type of mobilization is nationwide mobilization with clearly defined quotas and, most importantly, clearly defined terms of service for all categories of citizens. 15/17
Perhaps there is also a third, temporary form of mobilization: the partial transfer of certain functions to private companies, combined with continued improvements to the existing system through open dialogue with society. 16/17
This would especially involve engaging young people on issues such as a new model of military service, clearly defined training periods, fixed terms of service, and future prospects afterward. 17/17
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Covert mobilization have never stopped in Russia. The Russian regime faces a constant dilemma: whether it should move toward open, public mobilization measures. 1/13
There is a real decline in the number of people willing to become cannon fodder, even despite the promised perks and financial rewards, the flow of volunteers or mercenaries is also decreasing. 2/13
The need for an open mobilization is growing, but it still has not been taken because of fears over reputational damage and the potential destabilization of the situation inside the Russian Federation itself. 3/13
Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces:
A “symbolic” attack on Red Square would generate headlines around the world but says Ukraine will probably deliver a “slap in the face” where Russia’s air defences are weaker. 1/9
“Why waste drones on the ‘great wall’,” he said, referring to the enhanced security around Moscow. "If you hit the energy sector or military that’s the best strike, on the periphery.” 2/9
“Practically everything there [at Russia's Tuapse oil terminal] has burned." Putin spends 40% of his $530bn annual budget on the military and Brovdi estimates that 100m tonnes of Russian oil, worth $100bn, is exported each year from ports within range of his drones. 3/9
General Biletsky, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:
After Starlink was blocked for Russian forces, the gap between their effectiveness and ours narrowed dramatically, because replacing Starlink as a battlefield communications system is practically impossible. 1/15
The only thing that can replace Starlink is another Starlink. Therefore, Starlink’s influence on the course of the war right now is enormous. Over the past two weeks, the effectiveness of Russian strike operations has significantly deteriorated — by approximately 20–40%. 2/15
Within one or two months Russia will partially improve their effectiveness through other means — Russian communication satellites and so on. 3/15
Whether this intelligence report is accurate, or whether Putin’s system is nearing collapse, as has occurred at moments in Russian history when military setbacks triggered the breakdown of the existing order, is extremely difficult to predict, especially with open-source. 1/4
However, the gradual overheating of Russia's political system, driven by accumulating pressures across economic, military, and social domains, makes it increasingly fragile. 2/4
In such conditions, even a relatively minor shock, which under normal circumstances would barely register, could trigger a chain reaction and escalate into something far more significant. And if that moment comes, it is likely to unfold suddenly. 3/4
General Vasyl Syrotenko, Chief of Ukraine's Engineer Troops:
Traditional concepts such as the line of contact, deep rear, or safe zone have largely disappeared, as unmanned capabilities now cover all these areas. 1/15
Unmanned systems have fundamentally changed the entire architecture of warfare. As a result, these systems are now one of the main factors shaping combat, delivering strikes, and enabling the execution of a wide range of tasks. 2/15
Engineering units responsible for building obstacle systems increasingly rely on mobile platforms, unmanned, and robotic systems to carry out engineering support tasks on the battlefield. 3/15
Pavlo Yelizarov, Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force and founder of the legendary Lasar’s Group:
Ukrainian counteroffensive cannot be ruled out and remains a real possibility. 1/14
If Ukraine improves its efficiency, particularly by increasing the scale of damage inflicted on enemy personnel and equipment, it could generate a cumulative impact on frontline morale. 2/14
Such a counteroffensive could allow Ukraine to improve its position and then consolidate along more favorable lines. 3/14