Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ The Russian government is warning that the Ukrainians are trying to buy Russian Telegram channels that are now unprofitable after the government's blocking of the app. Russian commentators say it's an inevitable result of the government's restrictive policies. ⬇️

2/ Russia has been severely restricting Telegram since the start of April, as well as making it retrospectively illegal to use Telegram for advertising. This has been a disaster for Russian businesses, for which Telegram was an essential marketing tool.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2030278263260553242

3/ Individual Telegram bloggers have also faced a collapse in their income from Telegram, both because of the advertising ban and due to the blocking reducing their user bases (though many Russians continue to access it through VPNs). Some are now trying to sell their channels.

4/ Russian propagandist Yevgeny Podubbney writes:

"Recently, Ukrainian intelligence agencies have intensified their efforts to destabilise Russian society."

5/ "In addition to the already well-known extensive network of telephone scammers who, through deception, blackmail, and extortion, defraud Russian citizens of their savings and push them to break the law, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is taking new steps.

6/ "These are now attempts to influence the situation in the country through the dissemination of content masquerading as patriotic.

7/ "According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, in late April, Kyiv initiated a campaign to purchase Russian military and patriotic Telegram channels. Purchase offers are coming from fake accounts and are made in the names of well-known public figures and opinion leaders.

8/ "In fact, these actions are fraudulent: the goal is to alter the content of the acquired platforms and use them to spread disinformation, as well as to discredit the political leadership and the Russian Armed Forces.

9/ "In this way, the organisers hope to involve the owners of these information resources in activities that are detrimental to the interests of our state."

'Federation Towers' disagrees with this assessment of the Ukrainians' motives and points to the Russian government's role:

10/ "In reality, the underlying motive is clear, and the enemy has cleverly exploited it. The state began blocking the messenger and banning advertising. Advertisers dwindled, and creators' incomes plummeted.

11/ "Network owners began selling off unprofitable resources while there was still time to invest in other media. Similarly, administrators got rid of VKontakte public pages when the platform began to lose popularity and people migrated en masse to now-banned social networks.

12/ "This practice of using third parties was successfully used even before the mass blocking. There's a well-known online investigation into the mechanics of such projects. A channel disguises itself as a patriotic resource, builds a loyal subscriber base, and operates as usual.

13/ "Then, creators begin to selectively introduce the desired narratives. The focus subtly shifts from state support to doubts about its sustainability.

14/ "The key flaw lies in the chronology. Before the mass buyouts of platforms, administrators were under intense pressure for several months. Russian regulators single-handedly destroyed the platforms' business models.

15/ "Channels were cut off from advertising, and cases were filed through antitrust authorities. People were made to understand that it was no longer safe to operate. The artificial crisis collapsed the capitalization of the resources.

16/ "As soon as the administrators realized they urgently needed to withdraw funds and invest in new projects, anonymous buyers with external financing entered the market.

17/ "Unfortunately, this is the logical outcome of the entire prohibitive campaign. When the government suppresses the legal media economy, platforms inevitably retreat into the shadow economy.

18/ "The real goal of the new owners is simpler than banal disinformation. The enemy's goal is to drive the audience crazy. The past months have been difficult, and the chaotic information policy of the spring has already stressed society.

19/ "People don't need someone else's ideology imposed on them. It's enough to constantly get on their nerves, mix frightening rumors with real news, and keep readers in a state of panic.

20/ "The state has deprived itself of a platform for communicating with loyal citizens. Officials report blockings and think they control the internet. In reality, people continue to read their usual channels, only now the agenda is controlled by foreign intelligence.

21/ "Conclusion: all bans backfire."

Alex Kartavykh puts the blame squarly on the Russian government:

"How can I put this so as not to offend anyone... At the end of April, the Ukrainians started dumping their deepfakes and buying up platforms."

22/ "But there were still two months before that final point, during which Telegram admins were ACTIVELY PRESSURED. Durov was being pressured to aid terrorism, I remember. Advertising was banned, some cases were being filed through the FAS [Federal Anti-Monopoly Service].

23/ "Well, that is, for some reason, Telegram admins were being pressured to believe that being a Telegram admin was no longer safe. That if you stay, you'll have problems, they'll bully you and prevent you from earning money. And I want to ask, WHO ARRANGED ALL THIS?

24/ "And why did the pressure from the local elite coincide so precisely with the mass buyout of platforms? First, some unknown people lower the price as much as possible, and then other geeks go and buy up the channels. Maybe these people are connected and worked together?

25/ "Or maybe the top people simply didn't understand what they were doing, which the geeks cleverly took advantage of? What the fuck was that? Obviously, no one will answer, but I urge decision makers to think about this for more than five minutes.

26/ "By the way. By buying up TPG channels, the geeks aren't so much planning to spread disinformation and defamation. Although they do that too. But the real goal is simpler: to DRIVE THE FUCKING CRAZY AND ALREADY MAXIMUM NEUROTICISED AUDIENCE of these channels.

27/ "There's really no need for any extraordinary effort there, considering what some deranged homosexuals were doing to Russia's information space from roughly February to early May. Now, it seems like they've backed off a bit.

28/ "But the past two months haven't been easy, frankly."

Sergey Kolyashnikov is doubtless feeling vindicated for predicting all of this back on February 27th:

29/ "When advertising is banned on Telegram, a ton of channels with hundreds of thousands and millions of subscribers will become unnecessary. And they'll start selling them.

Guess who'll buy them?

30/ "That is, Russia won't just hand over a platform with a billion-strong audience without a fight. The audience will also be handed over wholesale to the caring hands of "Western colleagues."

31/ "And this isn't about political, news, or military channels; they're a tiny fraction of the total, and we'll be keeping those. Experience has shown that Russophobia is easily promoted on channels about fashion, sports, and gardening.

32/ "Everything happening with Telegram is a magically sweet gift for Western intelligence agencies. You can't buy something like that for any amount of money. April 1st will be a celebration for the CIA, MI6, and the SBU." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/epoddubny/27470
🔹 t.me/federation_tow…
🔹 t.me/AlexCarrier/15…
🔹 t.me/SergeyKolyasni…