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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
May 18 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Keane: China dominates the U.S. militarily in the region on every platform except submarines.

But deterrence is not platform-to-platform — it is forward capability and political will to impose costs and make Beijing doubt it can succeed. 1/
Keane: Xi has said for years he intends to take Taiwan. The goal is not only geopolitical — it is technological.

The world’s most advanced AI chips are made in Taiwan. Whoever owns that capability owns the future of AI. 2/
Keane: To break Iran’s regime, you kill its leaders, take away its military capability, and break its will.

A U.S.-Israel campaign would go back after the IRGC, the systems sustaining the regime, and remaining nuclear elements. 3/
Keane: Iran wants frozen assets released and sanctions removed — about $100B

If Washington does that, the regime does not just survive; the U.S. finances its recovery. That is why Tehran wants a deal. 4X
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 20
For three years Europe armed Ukraine. After Trump cancelled Germany's Tomahawks this month, Ukraine may now arm Europe.

Diplomatic source in Berlin: "Together with Ukraine, a lot is possible with short time frames" — The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Joe Biden pledged the Tomahawks to Germany in Jul 2024, range 1,550 miles.

They were closing a fatal gap. Europe has sea-launched Tomahawks but no ground-launched system to hit Russian submarine ports and air bases. 2/
Berlin now faces three options. Buy Tomahawks outright, build with Ukraine, or accelerate Elsa, the European long-range missile project.

Germany is pursuing all three. Boris Pistorius, German defence minister, flies to Washington next week for a four-day charm offensive. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 20
Russia is running out of people for its war in Ukraine — so Putin is handing out passports in Transnistria.

Putin signed a decree allowing residents of Moldova's breakaway region to obtain Russian citizenship without living in Russia or speaking Russian — Politico. 1/ Image
Moldovan President Maia Sandu: "Probably they need more people to send to the war in Ukraine." 2/
Sandu added that since the start of the full-scale war most Transnistria residents have themselves taken Moldovan citizenship because they felt safer holding a Moldovan passport than a Russian one. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 20
Q: What are the top-3 innovations Germany looks up to in Ukraine?

Pistorius: AI, drones, including UAV, and for us it's very important to develop a long-range missile, an anti-ballistic missile.

We need more European solutions for what we are now forced to buy elsewhere.

1/
Fedorov: Our goal is to intercept 90–95% of missiles and Shaheds.

Ukraine launched the world's first 'Short-Range Air Defense' structure within the Air Force. Interceptor drones now hit 50–75% of Shaheds.

Germany is investing in Ukrainian Air Defense.

2/
Pistorius: I really admire the creativity and power of innovation in Ukraine. Not everything has to be invented in Germany.

We have to see what we can learn, what we can improve — or what we can just copy.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 19
Rachman, FT: "The current wars in Ukraine and Iran underline how foolish it is to assume that a military superpower will always win a war against a smaller country."

China's assumption that Taiwan would be helpless without American support is a dangerous mistake.

1/ Image
Ukraine has no navy — yet forced the Russian navy out of the Black Sea. Iran's navy was reportedly destroyed — yet Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed with drones, missiles and speedboats.

Naval superpowers are increasingly vulnerable to cheap weapons.

2/
Taiwan's strengths: a top-20 global economy, 90%+ of the world's most advanced semiconductors, its own anti-ship missiles and drones, and the natural protection of being an island.

China would need one of the most ambitious seaborne invasions in history.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 19
CNN: Russian drones circle targeting vehicles and dropping explosives on troops. You have to keep moving or they may swarm around you.

The battlefield has completely changed in a year. Nobody drives cars or tanks unless they have to. Nets and robots are now key protection. 1/
CNN: Drones also target heavy gunfire. Their friend, a lieutenant, killed when this car was hit just two days ago.

We are nearing their bunker position. There are moments here to rest, to see the trophies of drones that failed. It's a bit tough at this moment. 2/
CNN: The drones never stop, but neither does Ukraine. Ukraine is adapting and engineering new warfare to bridge its manpower crisis. The sense that Ukraine was inevitably losing is gone. Deep strikes are now inflicting pain in the heart of Russia. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 19
Merz: With Europe facing enormous security challenges, close coordination has never been more important.

Europe will not let up in its efforts for a durable and just peace in Ukraine — and Kyiv can rely on Europe’s consistent support. 1/
Merz: Europe will keep increasing pressure on Moscow. Russia must understand that it has to negotiate.

Europe is ready to come to the negotiating table with Ukraine, Russia and the United States. 2/
Merz: Bulgaria is ready to follow this path in European solidarity.

Europe’s new unity and determination — especially since the change in Hungary’s government — will bring us a step closer to peace. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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