Putin has chosen Britain as his number one enemy. His agents are already inside the UK, preparing to strike.
🧵Here are the three tools the Kremlin will use — and why he won't stop. [1/13]
Putin is a gangster, and he perceives someone else's weakness as an invitation to attack them.
Today, for Putin, Europe is a weak opponent.
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Russia has chosen the UK as its main enemy, marking it up as the force that stands behind everything that opposes Russia.
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Putin doesn't have the right force for a proper attack against the United Kingdom. He doesn't actually have enough military might left to attack the West today.
He also knows that the European army is very weak.
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Without Americans it wouldn't be able to defeat Russia. And he sees that the American army is not going to be waging campaigns against Putin on behalf of Europe.
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From this point of view, today, Europe is a temptation for Putin. A temptation, of course, not for a brutal attack but for a hybrid attack. Europe is undoubtedly a target.
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The standard way Putin operates is through finding internal conflicts that he can inflate, and using any available means to do that.
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1️⃣ The first tool is to use special forces called the GRU – an expensive and very dangerous force.
In the UK, their operations have been 50 per cent successful – they managed to kill Litvinenko but they were not successful in Salisbury.
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In other European countries like Germany, Russian assassination targets have all been successfully killed.
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2️⃣ The second tool is already being prepared:
It is the system of agents including foreign intelligence agents, the FSB. They will be used if there were an attack.
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3️⃣ The third option is using British criminals to outsource Russian attacks through social media:
This is the cheapest and weakest option, but it can be quite successful.
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On recent intelligence suggesting Russia's elite could oust Putin from power: an absolutely humorous statement that has nothing to do with reality.
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I think that unfortunately it is more likely that Putin will stay in power for five, seven or even 10 years.
All these years will be in a state of cold war and the main goal is to prevent it from becoming hot war.
His "fortress" is cracking and half his decrees are now secret — so Russians can't see how badly the regime is failing.
Here's what he's hiding 👇 [1/11]
There have been no precedents to this blackout in modern history. In 2023, Putin set a record: 49.5% of presidential decrees were secret. Even last year, almost 45% of his orders remain hidden from public view. Half of the Russian government's actions are now officially "invisible."
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What gets classified tells you what they fear. Examples:
➜ The "Cannibal Battalions": Secret decrees likely mask the mass pardoning of murderers and rapists sent to the front. The state calls them heroes but keeps the paperwork hidden because the public would revolt.
Imagine this: A major disaster hits your country. People are dying, cities are burning, the environment is ruined. You look to your national leader for a plan, but they've nowhere to be found.
Sounds unlikely? In Putin's Russia, it's an everyday reality. In 26 years in power, he has vanished every time the nation is in pain. [1/16]
Right now, in Russia's Tuapse, it's literally raining oil. After drone strikes, black soot covers the city, animals are dying, and a 10,000 sq m slick is spreading in the Black Sea. And the president is radio silent.
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Residents are choking on benzene levels three times the limit and desperately asking, "Where is Putin?" Well, while Tuapse faces an ecological disaster he is busy renaming his alma mater after Dzerzhinsky (the Cheka founder) and meeting the President of the Seychelles.
The West keeps making the same fundamental mistake about Russia.
I’ve spent a decade in the system, ten years in six different Russian prisons, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that switching the "Tsar" won't fix a thing.
Here is why the "Good Tsar" myth is a trap, and what actually needs to happen. 🧵 [1/12]
There is a prevailing hope in DC and Brussels that if we just replace the current man in the Kremlin with a "liberal" leader, everything will click into place.
I’m telling you: It won’t. [2/12]
I once conducted a small "social experiment."
I met with four high-ranking, qualified American politicians and asked them: "Imagine you wake up tomorrow as the President of Russia. It’s a massive, diverse territory controlled by a rigid center. To maintain power, the center must strip 60% of resources from the regions and then redistribute them.
Viktor Orban, one of Moscow’s most dependable EU allies, is out. This result carries massive implications for Russia’s ability to project power and disruption across Europe.
Here is why Moscow is panicking. 🧵 [1/14]
Putin’s EU Veto: The End of Strategic Obstruction
For years, Orban turned Hungary into a pressure point inside the EU. Because of the bloc's need for unanimity, Budapest could, and often did, slow or block decisions on any issue, be it sanctions, funding, or military support. [2/14]
The Cost of Obstruction.
Orbán’s track record of blocking aid to Ukraine is staggering:
2022: Blocked an €18bn aid package.
2023: Stalled crucial payments through the European Peace Facility.
2024: Obstructed a €90bn long-term support plan for Kyiv. [3/14]
It is nearly impossible for a European to comprehend the psychological reality inside Russia. It is not just "fake news." It is a total deconstruction of reality.
Let me try to immerse you in the world Russians live in [1/9]
First, understand the isolation. Around 90% of Russians have never left the country. Even fewer have ever stepped beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union.
For the vast majority, the "West" is not a place they have visited. It is a ghost story told by the state. [2/9]
This is difficult to imagine in Europe. You take a 2-hour train ride and you are in another country. In Russia, the scale is different. When I was transported from Moscow to prison, the journey took 7 days. SEVEN. 7 days on a train in the same country. [3/9]