Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 19 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Xi Jinping to Trump: Putin may regret invading Ukraine, FT.

Xi said this as the war enters its fifth year, Russia remains stuck in a battlefield stalemate, and Ukrainian drones keep striking Russian troops and targets deep behind the front.

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Xi made the remark during talks with Donald Trump in Beijing last week.

FT: Xi went further than in past US-China talks on Ukraine.

2/
Putin now heads to China for a new summit with Xi.

The visit comes four days after Trump met Xi in Beijing and 25 years after Jiang Zemin signed the China-Russia friendship treaty with Putin.

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Putin launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022 — just three weeks after visiting China, where he and Xi declared a “no-limits” partnership.

Four years later, Russia still failed to break Ukraine.

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Ukraine’s deep drone strikes changed the battlefield.

Kyiv now hits Russian troops, logistics, and targets far from the front, including areas near Moscow.

That pressure helped lock the war into a costly stalemate.

5/
The Biden administration repeatedly accused China of sending dual-use goods that helped Russia sustain its war machine.

The Trump administration also raised concerns — but less often.

6/
For years, Beijing stayed careful on Ukraine.

Now, days before meeting Putin again, Xi raised the possibility that the invasion may end as a strategic mistake for Moscow.

7X
Thank you for reading this post!

Please also consider donating to support Ukrainian students who study during the war if this cause resonates with you.

foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…Image

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More from @Mylovanov

May 19
Stubb: The Soviet Union marched 1,600km to Berlin in four years. Russia moved 60km into Donetsk in three.

Who knows modern warfare? Ukraine does. They are Europe's best security partner.

1/
Stubb: Ukraine kills or wounds 30–35,000 Russians per month. Kill ratio: 1 Ukrainian to 7–8 Russians.

In April, Ukraine took back more territory than Russia gained. 95% of damage comes from Ukrainian drones. The dead zone stretches 20–40km. Russia stopped advancing.

2/
Stubb: Most Russians now oppose the war. Ukraine strikes reach Moscow airports and St. Petersburg.

Russia shut down Telegram and WhatsApp. The war arrived home. The mood shifted — and now it's time to engage Russia directly.

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 18
Gates, former US Def. Sec: It would be a mistake to change the carefully worded US position on Taiwan.

Experts parse these things down to the tense of the verbs. Keeping the US position as it has been is important, and everything I’ve seen indicates the president did that. 1/
Gates: The US should go forward with what we’ve agreed with Taiwan. There is a huge backlog of weapons we sold to Taiwan that we have not been able to deliver.

An important shift is getting Taiwan to focus on weapons needed to defend against a Chinese amphibious invasion. 2Х
Source:

Read 4 tweets
May 18
Ukrainians are currently teaching 18,000 NATO troops on the Swedish island of Gotland.

The Aurora 26 exercises bring together 12 NATO members and Ukraine as a tutor. Ukrainian soldiers are sharing their experience in drone warfare — Radio Svoboda.

1/
For Sweden, the Aurora 26 exercises are part of the process of deepening its integration within NATO, which it joined just two years ago.

Gotland provides a strategic location between mainland Sweden and the Baltic states to the East.

2/
Aurora 26 presents a show of strength on NATO’s East border.

Gustaffson, Commander of Sweden’s Gotland Regiment: For now Russia is occupied in Ukraine. But if there is a ceasfire, it will easily switch to NATO.

3X
Read 5 tweets
May 18
Zelenskyy: Russia is considering plans for operations to the south and north of Belarusian territory, either against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction in Ukraine or against one of the NATO countries directly from the territory of Belarus — Reuters. 1/ Image
Russia has already deployed tactical nuclear warheads and Oreshnik hypersonic missiles in Belarus.

Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia all share the border. Both systems shorten Moscow's flight time to Warsaw, Vilnius, and Riga. 2/
Lukashenko opened Belarus as a launchpad for Russia's Feb 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

He never sent Belarusian troops to fight, because Moscow needed the territory, not the soldiers. Minsk keeps handing it over. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 18
Kellogg: Since Iran’s revolution, eight U.S. presidents have dealt with this regime, but only Trump has done something.

The IRGC was created to protect the revolution, not the country. If it survives, this problem returns in 5, 10 or 20 years. 1/
Kellogg: Iran’s “Mosaic Defense” was built to fight the U.S. by decentralizing the IRGC, so everyone acts independently.

But Tehran never accounted for a president like Trump — and that is the mistake they made. 2/
Kellogg: Iran talks a good game, but it lies and deceives.

That is why take Kharg Island, hold something of value, put the theocratic leadership at risk, and only give it back when there are firm guarantees for the future. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 18
Keane: China dominates the U.S. militarily in the region on every platform except submarines.

But deterrence is not platform-to-platform — it is forward capability and political will to impose costs and make Beijing doubt it can succeed. 1/
Keane: Xi has said for years he intends to take Taiwan. The goal is not only geopolitical — it is technological.

The world’s most advanced AI chips are made in Taiwan. Whoever owns that capability owns the future of AI. 2/
Keane: To break Iran’s regime, you kill its leaders, take away its military capability, and break its will.

A U.S.-Israel campaign would go back after the IRGC, the systems sustaining the regime, and remaining nuclear elements. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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