1/ With the war in Ukraine locked in a stalemate and Russia casualties growing, Russian warbloggers are divided between advocating a full mobilisation or calling for the front lines to be frozen. Oleg Tsarev advocates ending the war and declaring victory to save Russian lives. ⬇️
2/ Tsarev, a fugitive Ukrainian-Russian politician now living in Russia, says that Russia has already achieved as much as it's likely to with the conquest of 'Novorossiya', and the war should be ended now with a declaration of victory so that no more Russians need to die:
3/ "It's bad when a person falls into a psychological trap they create for themselves. Psychologists call this a cognitive trap: when faced with a difficult situation, a person doesn't ask for help to avoid appearing weak.
4/ "They're afraid to ask questions for fear of appearing stupid. They feign indifference to avoid appearing vulnerable.
As a result, they suffer. It's bad for them.
But that's an individual. The worst thing is when a state falls into such traps.
5/ "For a long time, a number of well-known propagandists have been creating inflated expectations among the population about the end of the Special Military Operation. A military parade in Kyiv. A tribunal for Zelensky and Poroshenko.
6/ "Kyiv's fascists should be hanged on Khreshchatyk [Kyiv's main street]. Many feel that we must kill ourselves to accomplish this task. And if not, then it's not really a victory.
7/ "Moreover, some should be killing ourselves, while others should be scolding the country for not achieving all the goals dreamed up by the propagandists.
I have a good friend from Odesa. He tells me: if we don't take Odssa, it won't be a victory.
8/ "And he's not fighting alone. I would, of course, also be for the liberation of Dnepropetrovsk. I have a house there on the banks of the Dnipro. The graves of my relatives are there, but I can't visit them. Yes, I would very much like to. But at what cost?
9/ "Isn't the liberation of a significant part of Novorossiya, a land corridor to Crimea, a Russia that has stood firm against the entire world and preserved and is establishing a peaceful life in the reclaimed territories, a victory?
10/ "The Europeans have bet everything on Russia's defeat: money, weapons, their people bearing the colossal costs of refusing Russian energy supplies. All in the hope that as a result of all this effort, Russia will collapse, and they will take all of Russia's wealth for free.
11/ "They wanted to break us, just as they broke the USSR. And many European leaders and political forces have staked their political careers on this. But they will all lose, while Russia, having endured, will win. Russia's new border is a new security line.
12/ "Russia is consistently expanding its territory, rebuilding regions destroyed by Ukraine. The most important thing now is not to waver and prevent a repeat of the 1990s.
13/ "Remember how Ukraine drew new maps, annexing Russian regions? They promised coffee in Yalta and a parade of Ukrainian-German tanks on Red Square. Where are their tanks?
14/ "Right now, Ukraine lies in ruins, most of the population has fled, while Russia, despite the difficulties, has preserved its statehood, its army, and expanded its territory. I repeat: the entire West is fighting against us.
15/ "Some countries contributed more, some less, but virtually everyone contributed to the attempt to destroy Russia. To stand firm in such a situation is a victory.
16/ "They wanted to isolate Russia. To turn it into a pariah. But it didn't work. On the contrary. Thanks to Russia's resilience, the West lost its monopoly on global control.
17/ "Looking at Russia and China, India and the global South have become bolder in defending their national interests. Russia has shown that it is possible to disobey foreign dictates. Thanks to Russia, the world has become multipolar.
18/ "And the West has crumbled as a result. There is a crisis in Europe. Parties that advocated war against Russia are losing ratings. The US and Europe are at odds.
19/ "Having stood firm, we have won. We must proceed from the fact that we have already won. Our task is to end the war and hold on to our gains, building a prosperous Novorossiya.
20/ "The biggest benefit of ending the war is that our defenders will return home. We will stop losing Russian lives. All plans to "bury" Russia have failed. We paid a high price. But we stood firm and brought our land and our people home. For the country, that is victory." /end
1/ Crimea is approaching an economic collapse amidst chronic fuel and electricity shortages, according to a Russian report from the region. Even water is a problem, due to a lack of energy to power pumps and the need to use generators to extract it. ⬇️
2/ The Russian Telegram blogger 'Lawyer in the South' reports on the current situation in Crimea and the Russian south-west:
3/ "Last week, I took a trip to Crimea by car.
This article isn't about assigning blame or sowing panic. It's an attempt to soberly assess the situation and consider ways to solve problems, not just react to them.
1/ Ukraine's drone campaign is leading not only to fuel shortages but also political recriminations in Russia. The attack on the Omsk oil refinery yesterday is prompting increasingly harsh condemnations of Russia's government by Russian warbloggers. ⬇️
2/ 'Older than Edda' is outraged at the attack's success:
"Drone debris has reached Omsk, and hostile channels are distributing a defamatory video claiming it landed and caused a fire at a plant."
3/ "I don't want to be outraged yet again by the fact that several drones fly across the country for many hours and manage to hit something with drone debris."
Like many others, Sergey Kolayashnikov complains that it demonstrates Russian weakness:
1/ Why is Russia's air defence system so patchy that it regularly lets Ukrainian drones cross thousands of kilometres of Russian territory? A prominent Russian drone developer highlights a range of deficiencies in Russia's air defences. ⬇️
2/ As noted by other warbloggers, yesterday's attack on the Omsk oil refinery required Ukrainian drones to fly at least 2,400 km. Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev points out that air defence teams often don't bother shooting down drones that pass through their areas:
3/ "The situation with the Omsk Oil Refinery raises the awkward question of "transit" regions—regions where local anti-drone enforcement agents operate based on the objective-based defence principle: if it's not aimed at us, let it fly on,…
1/ Today's Ukrainian strikes against a Russian oil refinery in distant Omsk are being greeted with gloom by Russian warbloggers. They say that their predictions of increasingly wide-ranging Ukrainian raids were ignored, but are now coming true. ⬇️
"What happened is what was predicted last year: Ukrainian formations were able to reach Omsk, which is more than 2,500 km from the front line, with modernised FP-1 drones.
3/ "We believe that against this backdrop, discussions and debates about the involvement of Kazakhstani territory and various saboteurs will start again, but this is just a search for excuses, not a solution.
1/ Ukrainian drone manufacturer Fire Point's announcement that it has extended its FP-1 drone's range to 3,400 km (2,100 miles) is prompting alarm among Russian warbloggers. One notes that this puts many strategically vital sites in Siberia in range. ⬇️
"The head of Fire Point company, Denis Stiler, claims that the upgraded FP-1 drones can fly 3,400 km. Of course, he's just hype and lying! But if it's true, the following targets will be hit:
3/ "Tyumen Refinery (2,100 km) - already attacked in June, the fuel base of the country's main oil-producing region: gasoline and diesel are primarily used for domestic consumption in Western Siberia, including oil production itself.
1/ What is the strategic purpose of Ukraine's intensive and relentless drone strike campaign against Russian-occupied Crimea? A Russian analysis suggests that it's intended to make the peninsula untenable and force Putin to sue for peace. ⬇️
"Ukraine and Russia have exchanged long-range strikes: an oil refinery is on fire in Omsk, a warehouse has exploded in Kyiv, but I woke up thinking about Crimea."
3/ "It is there, in my view, that the key events of this summer are unfolding at breakneck speed, events which could influence the outcome of the war.