1/ With the war in Ukraine locked in a stalemate and Russia casualties growing, Russian warbloggers are divided between advocating a full mobilisation or calling for the front lines to be frozen. Oleg Tsarev advocates ending the war and declaring victory to save Russian lives. ⬇️
2/ Tsarev, a fugitive Ukrainian-Russian politician now living in Russia, says that Russia has already achieved as much as it's likely to with the conquest of 'Novorossiya', and the war should be ended now with a declaration of victory so that no more Russians need to die:
3/ "It's bad when a person falls into a psychological trap they create for themselves. Psychologists call this a cognitive trap: when faced with a difficult situation, a person doesn't ask for help to avoid appearing weak.
4/ "They're afraid to ask questions for fear of appearing stupid. They feign indifference to avoid appearing vulnerable.
As a result, they suffer. It's bad for them.
But that's an individual. The worst thing is when a state falls into such traps.
5/ "For a long time, a number of well-known propagandists have been creating inflated expectations among the population about the end of the Special Military Operation. A military parade in Kyiv. A tribunal for Zelensky and Poroshenko.
6/ "Kyiv's fascists should be hanged on Khreshchatyk [Kyiv's main street]. Many feel that we must kill ourselves to accomplish this task. And if not, then it's not really a victory.
7/ "Moreover, some should be killing ourselves, while others should be scolding the country for not achieving all the goals dreamed up by the propagandists.
I have a good friend from Odesa. He tells me: if we don't take Odssa, it won't be a victory.
8/ "And he's not fighting alone. I would, of course, also be for the liberation of Dnepropetrovsk. I have a house there on the banks of the Dnipro. The graves of my relatives are there, but I can't visit them. Yes, I would very much like to. But at what cost?
9/ "Isn't the liberation of a significant part of Novorossiya, a land corridor to Crimea, a Russia that has stood firm against the entire world and preserved and is establishing a peaceful life in the reclaimed territories, a victory?
10/ "The Europeans have bet everything on Russia's defeat: money, weapons, their people bearing the colossal costs of refusing Russian energy supplies. All in the hope that as a result of all this effort, Russia will collapse, and they will take all of Russia's wealth for free.
11/ "They wanted to break us, just as they broke the USSR. And many European leaders and political forces have staked their political careers on this. But they will all lose, while Russia, having endured, will win. Russia's new border is a new security line.
12/ "Russia is consistently expanding its territory, rebuilding regions destroyed by Ukraine. The most important thing now is not to waver and prevent a repeat of the 1990s.
13/ "Remember how Ukraine drew new maps, annexing Russian regions? They promised coffee in Yalta and a parade of Ukrainian-German tanks on Red Square. Where are their tanks?
14/ "Right now, Ukraine lies in ruins, most of the population has fled, while Russia, despite the difficulties, has preserved its statehood, its army, and expanded its territory. I repeat: the entire West is fighting against us.
15/ "Some countries contributed more, some less, but virtually everyone contributed to the attempt to destroy Russia. To stand firm in such a situation is a victory.
16/ "They wanted to isolate Russia. To turn it into a pariah. But it didn't work. On the contrary. Thanks to Russia's resilience, the West lost its monopoly on global control.
17/ "Looking at Russia and China, India and the global South have become bolder in defending their national interests. Russia has shown that it is possible to disobey foreign dictates. Thanks to Russia, the world has become multipolar.
18/ "And the West has crumbled as a result. There is a crisis in Europe. Parties that advocated war against Russia are losing ratings. The US and Europe are at odds.
19/ "Having stood firm, we have won. We must proceed from the fact that we have already won. Our task is to end the war and hold on to our gains, building a prosperous Novorossiya.
20/ "The biggest benefit of ending the war is that our defenders will return home. We will stop losing Russian lives. All plans to "bury" Russia have failed. We paid a high price. But we stood firm and brought our land and our people home. For the country, that is victory." /end
1/ Vladimir Putin's reversion to 'February 2022 mode' is meeting with a stony response from Russian warbloggers. Many have refrained from commenting, but some are reacting with open and sharp criticism, calling him "completely divorced from reality". ⬇️
"The situation on the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is turning from difficult to catastrophic; neither Western aid nor forced mobilisation are helping them."
3/ "I call on the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers not to carry out the criminal orders of the Kyiv regime."
1/ With Russian logistics vehicles now regularly being blown up by Ukrainian drones far behind the front lines, Russian warbloggers are angrily demanding to know why the military leadership didn't anticipate this and put in place anti-drone protections. ⬇️
2/ As illustrated in this excellent post by @clement_molin, Ukraine is managing to extend its 'kill zone' into Russia and Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, severely hindering Russian logistics across the region.
1/ While the Russian army has had some success in adapting to the conditions of the Ukraine war, this has often relied on bypassing the existing military bureaucracy. A Russian commentary highlights how a "self-defensive bureaucratic carcass" is hindering Russia's war effort. ⬇️
2/ The Russian war effort is heavily dependent on soldiers' and volunteers' personal funding and individual adaptation, as often seen in the 'Mad Max' style vehicles used on the battlefield. Soldiers have often complained of a lack of support and provision from the bureaucracy.
3/ 'Voice from Below' writes:
"Problems with UAVs, communications, reconnaissance, and mechanisation have been discussed since the mid-2010s."
1/ The Ukraine war is deadlocked, writes the imprisoned Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. He warns that Russia's current tactics are ineffective and Ukraine's intensifying drone strikes on the Russian rear may be leading up to a new counter-offensive. ⬇️
2/ Girkin, who has been a constant critic of the Russian military's strategy, observes:
"THERE'S A COMPLETE DEADLOCK ON THE FRONT. The summer campaign is beginning as incoherently as the winter-spring campaign ended."
3/ "Push-pull back and forth" isn't something that can lead us even to such a limited (and strategically senseless) goal as the complete liberation of the entire Donbas (DPR), much less the complete liberation of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions—…
1/ Russia's demographic crisis is worsening sharply, as its villages empty out and birth rates slump. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have died in the war in Ukraine and at least a million more have fled the country, with no respite in sight for its dwindling population. ⬇️
2/ Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik writes on his Telegram channel:
"Villages are dying: the outflow of young people has led to record-low birth rates."
3/ "A demographic alarm is sounding. The birth rate in Russian villages has hit rock bottom—a 35-year low. Rosstat recorded a fertility rate of 1.464. For reference, to avoid population decline, a fertility rate of at least 2 is needed.
1/ Even as sales of consumer cars plummet in Russia, the country's super-wealthy oligarchs are importing record numbers of sanctions-busting luxury cars from the West. It's another sign of how the Russian elite are profiting even as the population suffers. ⬇️
2/ As recently reported, the combined wealth of Russia's 155 richest people has risen by a record amount over the last year even as the economy as a whole has suffered. This is reflected in their conspicuous consumption, especially on luxury vehicles.
3/ The Russian Telegram channel 'Political Report' notes:
"Sales of new luxury vehicles reached 81 units in April—the highest level in 4.5 years. The Rolls-Royce Cullinan led the way with 21 units sold, while the Lamborghini Urus and Bentley Continental also made the top three."