Clément Molin Profile picture
May 22 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Russia 🇷🇺 is shutting the Rostov-Crimea road for civilian traffic after multiple ukrainian 🇺🇦 strikes hit this critical road

More strikes are also hitting the Mariupol-Donetsk highway. Right now, all the land corridor to Crimea is threatened.

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This map is made thanks to multiple geolocations from : @99Dominik_ @blinzka @carse_n @dmitrij46839 @federicoborsar1 @franfran2424 @GarbuzYe @hochu_dodomu @klinger66 @Kukulkan415 @MaxximOSINT @moklasen @neonhandrail @AndrewPerpetua @NotWoofers @tom_bike @VyshnyaOstap (among others) and my own geolocations.

I have a total of 73 trucks hit since march, but I believe this is barely 20% of the real numbers, since most of the results are not filmed and multiple videos cannot be geolocalized.
More and more videos from southern Ukraine are showing the results of Ukraine's middle strikes, mainly done with Hornet drones as well as long range FPV drones, which can now reach 50 km.
On this particular video, we can see a Honet drone looking for a target above a road in southern Ukraine, as soon as a military truck will be seen, it will target it.
This is a zoom of geolocalized hits around Donetsk city, which, again, means multiple ones are not on video or not mapped. Image
The Rostov-Crimea and Mariupol-Donetsk roads are the backbone of russian presence in the south.

These roads have been improved for logistical purposes. Also, military trains are more and more targeted.

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This video from today shows some AI guided FPV drones targeting the Mariupol-Donetsk road near Donetsk.

With the improved range of FPV drones, the "kill zone" is getting bigger, Ukraine will soon be able to set up some areas interdictions.
To understand how the strategy is working :

🔹FP-1/2 are hitting high value targets (depots, oil infrastructure, logistic centers, command centers, air-defenses)
🔹Hornets are hitting logistics (trucks, cars...) far behind
🔹Long range FPV's are hitting closer to the frontline.
Russia will soon start to adapt, to modify it's logistic strategy, to put air-defense teams in critical areas of the front, to cover roads with nets or to use othr roads.

But this is the ukrainian strategy, force Russia to change their strategy, which will obviously be less efficient.
I talked about the drone war more in details 10 days ago, here is the article :

I will continue to monirot those strikes and try to geolocate missing ones to have a bigger picture.

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 3
Let's dive in Russian 🇷🇺 war propaganda machine

Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.

What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.

1/9 ⬇️ Image
Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.

Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them. Image
They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.

These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 2
In June 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 284 airstrikes, of which I managed to map 49%

This airstrike campaign is at the heart of Russian offensive strategy and one of the biggest challenge to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces.

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With artillery and drones, airstrikes are the third phase of the Russian strike campaign.

These unguided bombs—the FAB-250, -500, -1000, and -1500—are fitted with a UMPK guidance kit and dropped from more than 50 km behind the front line.

Here you can see the results of those : Image
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The use of these guided bombs is steadily increasing, reaching a record high this month.

The accuracy of the FABs, which ranged from 10% to 30% last year (with "accuracy" defined as hitting something, such as a hedgerow, a village, or a forest), now stands at between 40% and 90%.Image
Read 20 tweets
Jul 1
Russian 🇷🇺 offensive assessment for June 2026

In June, Russia occupied 28 km2 and continued offensive operations in 7 directions out of 12. Russian forces took control of some neighbourhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk.

My analysis :

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Data above is from @Pouletvolant3 who has a strong regularity, using @Majakovsk73 data.

Below, Maps bases are from @M0nstas, with @Deepstate_UA and @AndrewPerpetua data.

The battle for Kostiantynivka has been ongoing for over 8 months.

Russian forces have been infiltrating the city's eastern, southern, and western sectors for several months; in recent weeks, they have—for the first time—managed to seize control of several neighborhoods, particularly in the west, and secure certain access routes to the city center.

Concurrently, Russian forces have launched a major propaganda campaign, showing flags across nearly the entire city and releasing videos showing their infiltration into most areas of Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian forces maintain a presence throughout almost the entire city, although their hold on the southeastern and southwestern neighborhoods is increasingly threatened by the Russian advance into their rear. Fighting within the neighborhoods continues, and the Russian objective remains to seize control of the two roads supplying the city.

While the majority of Ukrainian assets—including drones and artillery—were evacuated in early June, the battle for the city (much like the earlier battle for Toretsk to the south) could drag on for weeks or even months until Russian forces achieve total control, enabling them to use the city as a hub for a northward push toward Drujkivka and Kramatorsk.

Overall, the battle for the city is lost, even though the Ukrainians still control more than a quarter of it—specifically the northeastern districts. It is important to understand that it is too early for Russian forces to use the city as a launch point for artillery or drone strikes; however, the initial drone units arriving in the coming weeks could intensify the threat to the northern supply routes leading to Drujkivka.Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 30
In recent months, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to reinforce its fortifications across the country

6 months ago, Zaporizhzhia direction was lacking defensive preparation, it now has 5 defensive lines, which shows how fast Ukraine can adapt.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️ Image
Here in red are all the new fortifications built from january to jun 2026. Lines are stretching from Chernihiv to Odessa.

You can see priority was given to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Image
Near Zaporizhzhia, are still digging new lines, with currently 5 lines protecting the city from the east.

Red are lines dug in 2026, yellow in 2025 and white in 2024 (mostly obsolete). Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 29
Since early May, Ukraine 🇺🇦 targeted nearly 800 Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles on key logistical roads.

This strike campaign continue to be scaling, with strikes on railway infrastructure, bridges and the isolation of Crimea.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
Here is the video of the ~784 trucks and vehicles hit by the Ukrainians (mainly videos from the drones, since we can't always tell the difference with ground footage).

Strikes target military trucks, fuel trucks, cargo trucks, cars, buses and trucks closer to the frontline.
In total, I counted 784 trucks and vehicles hit by Ukrainian drones since early May.

🔹The per day average since May is 13
🔹May average is 7 (214 trucks)
🔹June average is 19 (570 trucks)
🔸Last 10 days average is 29 (295)

Read 18 tweets
Jun 18
Ukraine 🇺🇦 has now targeted around 500 russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles during the last 48 days.

Mid-range strikes continue to expand across occupied territories, on roads, bridges and rear base. This continues to slow down russian offensive.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️
From tomorrow, I will be off for more than 1 week, which means there won't be any new map/airstrike/fortification/mid-range strikes update, apart from some small tweets.

I will however continue to follow the overall trends.
In total, I have 270 geolocated strikes on trucks and vehicles since january, most of those are from May to June.

The key Rostov-Crimea road remains the priority target, but roads in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblast have also been largely targeted. Image
Read 13 tweets

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