1/ Russia's Oreshnik missile is clearly losing its cachet as a 'wonder weapon'. Many Russian warbloggers express frustration and weariness, calling it a propaganda gimmick. One says it's a "humiliating circus, a clown dance on the bones of Russians." ⬇️
2/ The ultra-nationalist 'Russian Movement of Strelkov' (a group of supporters of the imprisoned Igor Girkin) is scathing about the use last night of Oreshnik against targets in Kyiv and Bila Tserkva:
3/ "Hmm...
Just another bunch of empty shells that, aside from being “kind of a cool special effect,” don’t really accomplish anything—or are we supposed to be thrilled about the craters they leave behind, which won’t punish the enemy for Starobilsk in the slightest?
4/ "What can I say, a strategically brilliant proposal from our Ministry of Defence — to launch a strike on Saturday-to-Sunday night...
What can I say, if you want to celebrate a record in firing ballistic missiles — go ahead, but it has zero usefulness.
5/ "By morning, it’ll turn out that not a single bridge has been destroyed, nor the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant or the Kaniv Hydroelectric Power Plant.
6/ "And yes, the front-row spectators are watching the action with enthusiasm; the adrenaline is pumping, but there’s no fear. It’s just interesting to watch the “lights” there; they don’t feel any threat, and judging by the footage, the lighting is fine there too—just saying..."
7/ 'Comrade Artyom' is similarly scathing about the strikes' performative character:
"As a result of the "retaliatory strikes," hot water suddenly appeared in some areas of Kyiv. It hadn't been there since January 19th."
8/ "As I predicted, not a single person responsible for the murder of Russian children was harmed, not even a scratch. Moreover, not a single administrative building was destroyed where even the most ordinary perpetrators of the murder of Russian children could have been."
9/ Alex Kartavyhk, who has now escaped to exile in Vietnam, writes:
"There doesn't seem to be anything particularly interesting regarding the targets, at least at this time. So if they didn't uncover anything interesting, then the retaliatory strike isn't exactly impressive."
10/ Vladimir Romanov also isn't impressed:
"100,500 Nazis, 500 NATO instructors, and ten NATO generals were eliminated. Actually, no—20 NATO generals—no need to feel sorry for them. They’ve all been avenged.
Like the picture? Pretty, isn’t it?
11/ "There aren’t even any explosions.
Just a bunch of stupidly expensive hardware buried in the ground. All for the sake of a pretty picture that no one (except pensioners) believes in anymore.
12/ "It would be a good idea if we woke up one morning and read that Starlink satellites were disabled and no longer broadcasting internet, and that all the UAV production locations in Europe, as published by the Ministry of Defence,…
13/ …had caught fire and are now engulfed in massive fires that have destroyed these facilities.
But no. Our pensioners are exhausted."
Alexey Zhivov wonders what the point of it was, and asks: "why is this a retaliatory strike?"
14/ "If at night, in a deserted hour, targets directly related to military operations against Russia are hit, then either I'm missing something, or this is routine, planned military work that the Aerospace Forces are supposed to carry out regularly.
15/ "▪️ What is the retribution then?
▪️Have the masterminds and perpetrators of the Starobilsk child murders been killed?
▪️Is the enemy no longer able to carry out such attacks?
▪️Were the Ukrainian government's leaders or apparatus harmed?
16/ "What is the essence and content of the third strike by Oreshnik? Is there an official who can explain this to the public in simple Russian?
17/ "I've been trying all morning to figure out if even a single empty building associated with the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zelenskyy, and his administration was damaged overnight. Apparently, none."
18/ 'Thirteenth' is likewise sceptical:
"What's the point of firing a blank slug without a warhead and calling it "Oreshnik"? Did it kill anyone there? Zelensky, for example? No?
It won't bring back the lives of the dead children, it won't end the war."
19/ "It'll just create a fuss in the media, nothing more. Retribution, yeah.
Now, if there had been a lunar crater left in the place of Kyiv this morning, then yeah, I'd agree. But as it is... It's all just blatant show-offs, for outsiders.
20/ "Yeah, the explosions are cool. But the question is different!
What's the point of attacking at night? (When there's hardly anyone in those buildings?)
Why hasn't any of Ukraine's leadership been killed?
Why is Zelenskyy still alive?"
21/ "I doubt anyone can answer these three questions.
Well, explosions and explosions. What are the results? What's the efficiency of this shitload of missiles and drones?"
Dmitry Steshin is also wondering what the point was:
22/ "The morning began with a search for meaning and effect in the "retaliatory strike." Judging by the Ukrainian media and blogs, they weren't impressed. The video of the fires in Kyiv, for example, was filmed from a car driving across the Dnipro bridge.
23/ "Which, in a way, seems humiliating. Just as humiliating were yesterday's mass chanting for Bandera in Lviv. Sending the "Oreshnik" missile there never occurred to anyone. That would have been very powerful. Logical.
24/ "Furthermore, our patriotic public has some awkward, politically immature questions: does this "Oreshnik" missile even have a "warhead"? And how much does it cost to launch one missile? There are some really awkward questions about Iran, but we'll leave them out."
25/ 'Larkin' is clearly angry:
"Oreshnik is like Novichok – no one has ever died from it.🤷🏻♂️
This time it doesn't even explode; it's just a fireworks show for the Ukrainians.
A humiliating circus, a clown dance on the bones of Russians." /end
1/ Constant Ukrainian drone strikes in the Russian-occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region have driven the Russians to a desperate measure: they're unbanning Telegram because their mobile air defence teams can't manage without it. ⬇️
2/ The Russian-appointed governor Yevgeny Balitsky has announced the temporary unbanning of Telegram in the region (see the video above):
3/ "Today, we are experiencing certain difficulties with the alert system. Unfortunately, the Max messenger functionality currently does not allow for consistent delivery of push notifications about threats to the public.
1/ RT war correspondent Alexander Karchenko calls for a change of tactics in the face of relentless Ukrainian drone attacks. Instead of dispersing troops, he calls for Russian soldiers to group together to fight off the drones. ⬇️
2/ Writing on the 'Witness of Bayratkar' Telegram channel, Karchenko comments:
"The tactic of maximally dispersing troops has stopped working. An entire division now watches as a single soldier attempts to march one kilometer across an open field."
3/ "A human being is the smallest unit. It's impossible to divide him into parts without causing harm. And once we've reached the limit of dispersal, the vector simply must reverse. This is already happening at the front.
1/ Russian commanders often send men on suicidal 'flag-sticking' missions to raise the Russian flag over objectives, so that they can claim to have captured them and obtain personal rewards. As a Russian warblogger comments, this frequently leads to heavy Russian casualties. ⬇️
2/ Commanders' routine lies about military successes have often been commented on by Russian warbloggers. They have strong incentives to fake successes, such as the prospect of cash awards, medals, and promotions.
1/ Russia's statistical agency Rosstat has recently highlighted Russia's dire demographic situation, which has become far worse due to its war losses. Komsomolskaya Pravda war correspondent Grigory Kubatyan suggests nuking Ukraine as a solution. ⬇️
2/ The slumping birth rate has recently been the subject of Rosstat data and has produced alarmed commentary from Russian commentators (see thread below). The war's human losses have also become so huge that they can no longer be ignored.
3/ While Russia has declined to release casualty figures, Western and Ukrainian sources have consistently estimated between 1-1.2 million Russian casualties (with estimates of around 500,000-600,000 Ukrainian casualties). Russian warbloggers seem increasingly to accept this.
1/ Russian soldiers in Ukraine face a "catastrophic" shortage of drones and personnel at the front, according to two Russian warbloggers. The Russian offensive is coming to a standstill with Ukrainian forces said to be outnumbering the Russians two or three to one in places. ⬇️
2/ Anatoly Radov compains that the massive Russian missile strikes against Kyiv over the weekend were a case of exerting the wrong kind of force in the wrong place:
3/ "The real problem with these expensive retaliatory strikes is that there's a catastrophic shortage of Mavics and FPVs on the front.
1/ Continuing with Russian warbloggers' reactions to the overnight Oreshnik ballistic missile attacks against Ukraine, there's a great deal of criticism and bitterness about the Russian government's tactics. One asks: why not attack London instead? ⬇️