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May 25 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Russia's statistical agency Rosstat has recently highlighted Russia's dire demographic situation, which has become far worse due to its war losses. Komsomolskaya Pravda war correspondent Grigory Kubatyan suggests nuking Ukraine as a solution. ⬇️ Image
2/ The slumping birth rate has recently been the subject of Rosstat data and has produced alarmed commentary from Russian commentators (see thread below). The war's human losses have also become so huge that they can no longer be ignored.
3/ While Russia has declined to release casualty figures, Western and Ukrainian sources have consistently estimated between 1-1.2 million Russian casualties (with estimates of around 500,000-600,000 Ukrainian casualties). Russian warbloggers seem increasingly to accept this.
4/ Grigory Kubatyan writes on Telegram:

“We don’t know the exact number of losses at the front, but we can get an idea of ​​the order. Let’s round it up to the nearest million (if the enemy’s losses exceed ours, that doesn’t change the situation)."
5/ "Let those who know their statistics better correct me. I found the following figures. According to Rosstat, as of 1 January 2024, there were 68 million men in Russia (including immigrants who managed to obtain passports).
6/ "Of these, only 30% were of working age (they are the ones fighting), the rest were children or the elderly.
7/ "That means there are just over 20 million men in Russia. One million casualties during the Special Military Operation is almost 5 percent of the adult male population. One in 20. How long will it take to get that million back? And nothing will happen!
8/ "The birth rate in Russia is 1.5. Of all the former Soviet republics, this rate is worse only in Ukraine. That means there will be no increase in the native population.
9/ "Our elite's motto, "We have money, we can buy anything," doesn't work well even with goods. It's even worse with people. You can't buy more Russians. You can try buying Afghans or Nigerians, but it's not the same. We are ceasing to be Russia.
10/ "We are becoming something else—a Russia without Russians. And Europe hasn't even entered the war yet, it's only preparing.

The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki killed about 200,000 people. A bomb dropped on Kyiv or Lviv in 2022 would also have claimed many lives.
11/ "But it could have frightened Europe enough to stop the war and save the lives of a million Russians and a million Ukrainian soldiers, not to mention civilians. I won't say what the US and Israel would have done. Even North Korea.
12/ "In our situation, mathematics and statistics, alas, are not on the side of humanism.

When a reporter directly asked about the bomb, Press Secretary Peskov replied that the bomb was needed in case of an existential threat to the state. Let's assume that's true.
13/ "But then, strikes on Starobilsk aren't grounds for a threatening response. But, for example, is the enemy's destruction of Belgorod already considered a threat to the state or not? And what about Moscow? Where is the final red line?
14/ "We're like a dinosaur, with such slow reactions that it only notices it's being eaten when it's too late." /end

Source:
t.me/reporter_shtur…

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jun 17
1/ Summer vacations in Crimea are definitely off, in the face of constant Ukrainian drone attacks and worsening fuel shortages across the peninsula. The Crimean economy is said to be in deep trouble, with factories and amenities closing, and workers being laid off en masse. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Your News' laments:

"Comrades from Crimea report: the resort season on the peninsula has been almost completely cancelled.

Fuel is hard to come by, or not available at all."
3/ "Destroyed factories and oil depots are not resuming operations, but simply disappearing from the economic map along with their workers.

Hundreds of workers are being sent on unpaid leave or simply laid off due to a lack of jobs.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 17
1/ Ukrainian operatives inside Russia are reportedly acting as forward air controllers, according to a Russian source, using infrared laser beams – invisible to the naked eye – to guide drones to targets. This is likely being done to defeat Russian electronic warfare. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'UAV developer' writes that "in many cities (probably all of them), there are pigs that illuminate targets with infrared lasers. These lasers are invisible to the naked eye, but cameras can see them."
3/ "A drone flying into the area sees these lasers (the beams and "spots" from them) and targets them even in complete darkness.

These lasers have been recorded in Crimea, Cheboksary, and Ryazan. I'm sure they've been seen in other places as well.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 17
1/ A Ukrainian attack in December 2025 which almost certainly caused serious damage to a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk was reportedly facilitated by an extraordinary security breach by the Black Sea Fleet's commander, Admiral Sergei Pichuk. ⬇️
2/ At the time of the attack, it was noted that the Ukrainians had managed to record it using an image-recognising security camera with a view over the military port in Novorossiysk. This indicated a major security breach, given the sensitivity of what it could see.
3/ According to an apparent insider source, "thanks to a personal order from the Black Sea Fleet Commander, Admiral Sergei Mikhailovich Pinchuk, the complex's camera, which was not designed for network use due to its secrecy,…
Read 7 tweets
Jun 17
1/ The commander of Russia's Unmanned Systems Forces, Lt Col Yuri 'Toilet' Vaganov, has reportedly been caught in an apparently major corruption scandal by a federal sting operation. His career now faces being flushed away. ⬇️ Image
2/ Vaganov has been the head of the Unmanned Systems Forces (BPS) since November 2025. A former plumbing salesman, from which he earned his unofficial callsign (his real one is apparently 'Thunder'), he was a monopoly supplier of drones to the Russian army before his appointment.
3/ Allegations have emerged that Vaganov was rigging drone testing results to steer contracts to his friends (with whom, it is assumed, he had a beneficial financial connection.) An apparent insider source, 'VARANGIAN', reports:
Read 16 tweets
Jun 16
1/ Sevastopol is effectively under siege from Ukrainian drones, prompting some Russians to make comparisons with the sieges of 1855 and 1942. Others compare it to J.R.R. Tolkien's Minas Tirith. However, unity is lacking among the inhabitants, says a Russian warblogger. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Near the War' describes a recent visit to Sevastopol:

"I confess, I thought several times before driving from Donetsk to Sevastopol. Military acquaintances had long warned me that the enemy might attempt to blockade the Crimean Peninsula."
3/ "And since early May, the R-280 "Novorossiya" highway has been under attack by Ukrainian Hornet drones.On the way to Sevastopol, we saw the aftermath of these artificially intelligent hornets' hunt:…
Read 20 tweets
Jun 16
1/ Former Roscosmos CEO and current Russian Senator Dmitry Rogizin has a novel suggestion for deterring Western countries from seizing 'shadow fleet' tankers. He advocates turning them into giant bombs by rigging them to explode if they're captured. ⬇️ Image
2/ Commenting on the British seizure of the Russian shadow fleet tanker SMYRTOS at the weekend, Rogizin – like many other Russian commentators – likens it to an act of piracy. He suggests:
3/ "I believe we should mine the tankers we use. Initiation should occur when appropriate commands are received or when a tanker deviates from its route and is forced to enter a foreign port.
Read 13 tweets

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