1/ Russia's statistical agency Rosstat has recently highlighted Russia's dire demographic situation, which has become far worse due to its war losses. Komsomolskaya Pravda war correspondent Grigory Kubatyan suggests nuking Ukraine as a solution. ⬇️
2/ The slumping birth rate has recently been the subject of Rosstat data and has produced alarmed commentary from Russian commentators (see thread below). The war's human losses have also become so huge that they can no longer be ignored.
3/ While Russia has declined to release casualty figures, Western and Ukrainian sources have consistently estimated between 1-1.2 million Russian casualties (with estimates of around 500,000-600,000 Ukrainian casualties). Russian warbloggers seem increasingly to accept this.
4/ Grigory Kubatyan writes on Telegram:
“We don’t know the exact number of losses at the front, but we can get an idea of the order. Let’s round it up to the nearest million (if the enemy’s losses exceed ours, that doesn’t change the situation)."
5/ "Let those who know their statistics better correct me. I found the following figures. According to Rosstat, as of 1 January 2024, there were 68 million men in Russia (including immigrants who managed to obtain passports).
6/ "Of these, only 30% were of working age (they are the ones fighting), the rest were children or the elderly.
7/ "That means there are just over 20 million men in Russia. One million casualties during the Special Military Operation is almost 5 percent of the adult male population. One in 20. How long will it take to get that million back? And nothing will happen!
8/ "The birth rate in Russia is 1.5. Of all the former Soviet republics, this rate is worse only in Ukraine. That means there will be no increase in the native population.
9/ "Our elite's motto, "We have money, we can buy anything," doesn't work well even with goods. It's even worse with people. You can't buy more Russians. You can try buying Afghans or Nigerians, but it's not the same. We are ceasing to be Russia.
10/ "We are becoming something else—a Russia without Russians. And Europe hasn't even entered the war yet, it's only preparing.
The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki killed about 200,000 people. A bomb dropped on Kyiv or Lviv in 2022 would also have claimed many lives.
11/ "But it could have frightened Europe enough to stop the war and save the lives of a million Russians and a million Ukrainian soldiers, not to mention civilians. I won't say what the US and Israel would have done. Even North Korea.
12/ "In our situation, mathematics and statistics, alas, are not on the side of humanism.
When a reporter directly asked about the bomb, Press Secretary Peskov replied that the bomb was needed in case of an existential threat to the state. Let's assume that's true.
13/ "But then, strikes on Starobilsk aren't grounds for a threatening response. But, for example, is the enemy's destruction of Belgorod already considered a threat to the state or not? And what about Moscow? Where is the final red line?
14/ "We're like a dinosaur, with such slow reactions that it only notices it's being eaten when it's too late." /end
1/ Russian soldiers in Ukraine face a "catastrophic" shortage of drones and personnel at the front, according to two Russian warbloggers. The Russian offensive is coming to a standstill with Ukrainian forces said to be outnumbering the Russians two or three to one in places. ⬇️
2/ Anatoly Radov compains that the massive Russian missile strikes against Kyiv over the weekend were a case of exerting the wrong kind of force in the wrong place:
3/ "The real problem with these expensive retaliatory strikes is that there's a catastrophic shortage of Mavics and FPVs on the front.
1/ Continuing with Russian warbloggers' reactions to the overnight Oreshnik ballistic missile attacks against Ukraine, there's a great deal of criticism and bitterness about the Russian government's tactics. One asks: why not attack London instead? ⬇️
1/ Russia's Oreshnik missile is clearly losing its cachet as a 'wonder weapon'. Many Russian warbloggers express frustration and weariness, calling it a propaganda gimmick. One says it's a "humiliating circus, a clown dance on the bones of Russians." ⬇️
2/ The ultra-nationalist 'Russian Movement of Strelkov' (a group of supporters of the imprisoned Igor Girkin) is scathing about the use last night of Oreshnik against targets in Kyiv and Bila Tserkva:
3/ "Hmm...
Just another bunch of empty shells that, aside from being “kind of a cool special effect,” don’t really accomplish anything—or are we supposed to be thrilled about the craters they leave behind, which won’t punish the enemy for Starobilsk in the slightest?
1/ Ukraine's Hornet drones are continuing to attack Russian targets across the occupied territories, seemingly without hindrance. A Russian warblogger fighting in the region expresses deep frustration at Russia's inability to prevent the drone strikes. ⬇️
2/ Writing on the 'Donetsk infantry' Telegram channel, one of the contributors (a member of the "Club of Anonymous Commanders") is clearly exasperated by the situation. He calls for urgent action:
3/ "The road to Crimea, the Donetsk-Novoazovsk and Donetsk-Mariupol highways, the Donetsk outskirts, and so on—all roads in the DPR are now under daily mass attacks by Hornet UAVs, also known as Martian-2. These attacks are escalating daily.
1/ Russian soldiers fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region say they have run out of medications due to their officers' incompetence, and are having to rely on folk remedies such as pine needles for coughs, salt and soap for fungal infections, and vodka with garlic to treat pain. ⬇️
2/ 'Brothers in Arms' writes:
"Brothers from the 166th Motorised Rifle Regiment sent a message via chat ... about medicine in their regiment's units."
3/ "They write: they're searching for medications themselves, first aid kits are empty, medical assistance can be postponed, and sometimes, instead of normal medications, people are prescribed folk remedies.
1/ The Russian government has ordered ports to improve their anti-drone defences. However, that reportedly involves electronic warfare systems which installers admit is ineffective, low-paid security guards, and massively inflated costs. ⬇️
2/ 'Combat Reserve' posts an extract from an order issued by Rosmorrechflot, the Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport. It orders transport infrastructure (OTI) operators on the Sea of Azov to:
3/ "equip the OTI with additional electronic warfare systems capable of suppressing aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles, including those controlled via satellite communications channels, as well as the deployment of additional mobile task force crews on board ships."