Why are Americans so pissed off right now? Take a look at three straight monthly declines in disposable income growth and that same metric over the last year.
Real wages are falling as disposable income declines and households are drawing down savings.
With rising inflation not having yet peaked this will get worse before it gets better and real spending is likely to decline in May.
Here one can see where consumers are pulling back on spending as disposable income declines.
Take a look at inflation across the PCE index. Note how far we are away from the 2% target. Both topline and the core index will move higher next month
Think tariffs no longer matter?
Think again. Take a look for yourself.
Underlying inflation is rising.
Core is approaching the lower end of the Fed's policy range of 3.5% to 3.7%. No way the Fed can cut rates under such conditions especially as the core rate is likely to increase further.
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Supply Shock & Inflation: Traditional turn of the year price increases, the lagged impact from tariffs with a layer of inflation driven by the adverse supply shock unleashed by the war is making for a very mean year.
A thread
Think tariffs don't cause inflation? Think again take a look at the cost of goods sensitive to tariffs. Remember that many firms pulled forward inventory accumulation into early 2025 to avoid trade taxes. Those inventories are being rebuilt now with the trade taxes layered on top. More inflation is incoming.
Don't like core PCE because it does not fit your narrative? Ok, take a look at the topline. Note that three month average at an annualized pace. Remember that this is the Fed's metric that they use to make policy.
Fed SLOOS: most notable development was the sharp drop in demand for C&I loans by firms of all sizes. Tighter loan covenants & increased collateral requirements are going to be a feature of lending. Smaller firms saw much larger increase in aforementioned areas.
Fed SLOOS: was not so much that lending tightened noticeably but that it just continued along trend that started in April 2022.
FED SLOOS: Loan spread over cost of funds continued to increase along similar trend.
There is a growing disconnect between the real economy and equity valuations that, if sustained, will result in slower growth and increased regulation of the investment industry. And that, in turn, will further undermine the legitimate underpinnings of capitalism.
The link between the two is broken because of a changing market structure, a concentration of wealth and powerful network effects that feed into the winner-take-all economy.
While there is nothing wrong with traders and investors profiting from timely and smart speculative activity, the growing disconnect between the economy and equity markets is going to cause increased social tensions.