Supply Shock & Inflation: Traditional turn of the year price increases, the lagged impact from tariffs with a layer of inflation driven by the adverse supply shock unleashed by the war is making for a very mean year.

A thread Think tariffs don't cause inflation? Think again take a look at the cost of goods sensitive to tariffs. Remember that many firms pulled forward inventory accumulation into early 2025 to avoid trade taxes. Those inventories are being rebuilt now with the trade taxes layered on top. More inflation is incoming.

Fed SLOOS: most notable development was the sharp drop in demand for C&I loans by firms of all sizes. Tighter loan covenants & increased collateral requirements are going to be a feature of lending. Smaller firms saw much larger increase in aforementioned areas. Fed SLOOS: was not so much that lending tightened noticeably but that it just continued along trend that started in April 2022.

There is a growing disconnect between the real economy and equity valuations that, if sustained, will result in slower growth and increased regulation of the investment industry. And that, in turn, will further undermine the legitimate underpinnings of capitalism. The link between the two is broken because of a changing market structure, a concentration of wealth and powerful network effects that feed into the winner-take-all economy.