Thread by @Mylovanov

Former CIA director Burns: Putin always believed Russia couldn't be a great power without controlling Ukraine.

When I met him before the invasion, he was utterly unapologetic. No denial. His message was: "So, what are you going to do about it?"

1/

Burns: The FSB — Russia's domestic security service — led the pre-invasion planning for Ukraine.

That's telling. For Putin and the Russian elite, Ukraine was never a foreign policy question. It was a domestic one.

2/

Burns: Putin's assumptions were profoundly wrong. CIA had worked with Ukrainian security services since 2014 — I knew they'd push back hard.

I told Putin's people in Moscow in November 2021: Ukrainians will resist as tenaciously as possible, and they'll have our full support. 3/

Burns: Over a million Russian casualties, economy mortgaged for years. Iran temporarily saved Putin — higher energy revenues, fewer US weapons for Ukraine.

But that's temporary. Pressures build. He still controls his society through one skill: repression.

4/

Burns: A year ago Putin felt time was on his side. Now Russian elites question that — no breakthrough in sight.

Putin feels greater pressure to negotiate. When exactly, hard to say. But keep the pressure up — economically and on the battlefield. He's unsentimental.

5X

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