I called out the Chinese invasion requirements for Taiwan in May 2023 complete with a prediction they would have to be building satellite detectable 1944 invasion of Normandy Mulberry style infrastructure.
In that thread I connected classic "irrational regime" Chinese 'Wolf Warrior diplomacy' as a behavior indicator of how they would view the world wide maritime trade and financial collapse invading Taiwan would cause as advantageous to China.
3/
And gave a informed by the 1980's tanker war Lloyds maritime insurance behavior based timeline to maritime/financial collapse.
Something the Trump Admin missed, if its Straits of Hormuz maritime insurance policies are anything to go by.
4/
Given that all of these financial downsides that arrive with either a Chinese blockade of Taiwan or from a Chinese invasion of it.
It will be invasion or nothing.
Chinese Hubris begets Nemesis.
5/
And China isn't the only group begetting Nemesis.
Top Western financial, political and corporate elites appear to be utterly delusional about the impending reality of the Taiwan invasion and the accompanying Global economic/financial meltdown sequence.
6/
Concentrating 200,000 troops in three corps sized formations and a million tons of supplies for 60 days of fighting plus the shipping and landing connectors to pull it off, is highly NOTICABLE.
Lloyds will kill insurance in the South China Sea just like it did for the Strait of Hormuz.
7/
I've been talking about the 1980's tanker war and maritime insurance related to the Chinese export of Silkworm missiles to Iran since 2019-2020.
I mentions containerized drones in 2020 for the Azeri-Armenian War
Then related that to Ukrainian grain shipments since March 2022.
8/
I integrated all of the above for my predictions in 2023 on the coming 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Which will be kicked off with financial collapse & "Operation Spiderweb with Chinese Characteristics."
US elites will just keep ignoring me.
9/9
@threadreaderapp unroll
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I did two further @grok analytical passes which reduced the truck movements, first to 3K to 8K truck movements:
"Revised estimate: Likely 3,000–8,000+ effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (e.g., M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), potentially higher in gross passages but far lower in productive throughput than Western equivalents due to systemic non-mechanized constraints."
2/
And then down to 2.5K to 7K truck movements, See:
"Likely 2,500–7,000 effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), with gross passages potentially higher to offset massive inefficiencies—but productive throughput remains severely constrained by non-mechanized realities, supplements like rail/barge, and systemic intelligence blind spots."
A hundred Russian trucks, with a high proportions of fuel tankers and wreckers concentrated on one or two supply roads or a single road junction in a couple of weeks is a horse of a different color.
That is anti-access area denial (A2AD) on a stick.
Ukraine has achieved "Drone air superiority" over those roads rivaling WW2's Summer 1944 Allied air superiority over German occupied Normandy.
As a result, the Russian truck fleet is taking unsustainable attrition, particularly of its fuel tanker fleet. 2/
This AFU fuel interdiction campaign is causing panic:
"Fuel shortages are beginning in Sevastopol. This is the beginning of the consequences of the enemy's systematic strikes on oil refineries and tanker trucks along the land corridor to Crimea." 3/
Texas has seven unique advantages in terms of infrastructure, political culture, and resource geography that make it uniquely suited to be the next industrial heartland of the USA.
The seven industrial development advantages of Texas 🧵 1/
1. About 94% of land in Texas is privately held. This vastly limits what the Federal, State and local governments can do to in terms of regulations and NIMBY games.
2/
2. Texas is mostly flat. Texas hill country is small beer compared to the Appalachian and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. This compounds with #1 for industrial development.
3. Texas has a lot of water compared to the US west & sea access.