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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
May 30 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Kasparov: Europe is still not ready to say the magic formula: Russia must lose, Ukraine must win.

But the war cannot end while Putin is in power, because under Putin war has become the way the entire Russian state apparatus exists. 1/
Kasparov: Negotiations with Putin mean selling part of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territory to buy time for calm preparation before Putin’s next aggression.

Nothing else is happening here. Russia’s whole system is aimed at continuing the war. 2/
Kasparov: Trump has already done everything he could for Putin.

Cut aid to Ukraine, stopped giving weapons, even stopped selling them to Europeans, raised oil prices with the Iran war, quarreled with Europe, and practically buried NATO. 3/
Kasparov: Trump must feel offended: I did everything, so why can’t Putin win? All the conditions were ready.

But Putin has not won and the war is moving in the wrong direction for Moscow. Russia has no serious breakthrough potential. 4/
Kasparov: U.S. generals understand the new reality: Ukraine is now the most combat-capable army in Europe, and America has to learn from Ukraine.

Cooperation with Ukraine is necessary to prepare effectively for confrontation with China. 5X
Source:
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 31
Kasparov: Ukraine performed a historical miracle.

The coming funeral of the Russian Empire, which I believe is not far away, is the result of the heroism of the Ukrainian people and, yes, of Zelenskyy’s political leadership. 1/
Kasparov: This is not just Putin’s war. It is an imperial war, the logical continuation of Russian imperial history.

Without Ukraine there is no Russian Empire, and Putin understands that with his imperial sixth sense. 2/
Kasparov: Wars end only when the causes that created them are eliminated.

The cause here is Russia’s imperial structure. Until that structure is broken, the war will not truly end, because the empire will keep trying to return. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 31
Kasparov: Lavrov’s threat to foreign diplomats is not normal diplomacy. It shows Russia has problems and is trying to solve them with threats and bluff.

Bluff has always been Putin’s weapon: weak cards, higher stakes, and the hope that Europe’s hands will shake. 1/
Kasparov: Europe still cannot say the magic formula: Ukraine must win, Russia must lose.

Everyone understands it behind the scenes, but politically they still refuse to define the strategic goal of the war, so they keep maneuvering around the real issue. 2/
Kasparov: The real meaning of these “negotiations” is simple: sell part of Ukraine’s territory to buy Europe a pause.

That is the essence. Nothing else can really be negotiated while Putin’s goals remain unchanged and Russia still wants empire. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 31
Kasparov: The attack on Kyiv looks less like a demonstration of strength than an outlet for Putin’s anger. The situation is turning against him.

Even inside his information vacuum, reality is breaking through: the war is no longer moving west, it is moving east. 1/
Kasparov: Putin’s trip to China was likely unpleasant. The Power of Siberia 2 deal was not signed.

That suggests Xi is diversifying and may be developing doubts about Putin’s ability not only to control the situation, but to hold on at all. 2/
Kasparov: Russian Z-war bloggers, still full of patriotism and wanting Russia to win, are describing a catastrophic picture at the front.

They admit the war is at least stuck and that the situation for Moscow may soon become far worse. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 30
Fukuyama: Ukrainians have systematically taken out Russian air defenses in Crimea with medium range drones and missiles. The peninsula depends on a narrow land route through the isthmus and the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine now reportedly controls the isthmus from the air and has repeatedly attacked the bridge. 1/
Fukuyama: It would not be surprising if Russia decided within the next year that its position in Crimea was untenable and began withdrawing forces, just as it has already withdrawn much of its Black Sea Fleet. Such a withdrawal would be an enormous political defeat for Putin. 2X
Source:

Read 4 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 30
That’s quite clear now that Europe is preparing for a future without the US. Where America is no longer the center of the Western alliance.

Trump spent years demanding loyalty from allies. Instead, Europe is slowly building systems designed to function without Washington, FP. 1/ Image
At first, European leaders tried to keep Trump happy.

UK PM Starmer offered an unprecedented second state visit. NATO Chief Rutte called Trump “daddy.” European governments boosted defense spending and increased support for Ukraine. 2/
Problem is that concessions didn’t buy predictability.

The US withdrew 5,000 troops from Germany, imposed tariffs on allies, and excluded European governments from key decisions during operations against Iran. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 30
Ukraine received 16 Swedish Gripen fighters and wants to purchase 20 more of the latest model by 2030.

They're cheaper to operate than F-16s, can take off from a regular road and carry guided bombs — Suspilne. 1/ Image
Saab and Volvo developed the Gripen in the 1980s for the Swedish military. Sweden lived next to the USSR and understood that fixed infrastructure would be the first target. 2/
So they built a jet that takes off from a highway, gets serviced in a forest without a hangar and is ready to fly in minutes. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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