1/ Ukraine has effectively done to Crimea what Iran has done to the Strait of Hormuz: it has reportedly scared Russian insurers into blocking all civilian-hauled oil supplies to the peninsula and occupied southern Ukraine for fear of drone strikes.
"So, to summarise the explanatory team's responses regarding the fuel shortage in Crimea, I'll sum up:
3/ "- Fuel transport by rail is permitted across the bridge in exceptional cases following a terrorist attack. Plus, owners of railway tanker cars are reluctant to provide them, as no one insures them.
4/ "- There were three railway ferries, all of which were screwed [by Ukrainian attacks], and a new one is expected sometime around September. Moreover, there's a shortage of sailors for these ferries.
5/ "- The railway pier is blocked, and the waiting list for car ferries is up to five days.
6/ "- There's simply no one willing to drive tanker trucks through the new [i.e. occupied] territories. Because these are civilian drivers, and they won't even pay a hundred rubles per trip. Or even two.
7/ "- There are practically no private owners on the peninsula willing to store fuel, as everything is repeatedly attacked.
- Insurance companies don't insure.
8/ "Therefore, without government and military intervention (who will transport the fuel for free), the issue here can't be resolved."
1/ The Russian-occupied city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine is under a 'drone siege', according to local inhabitants. Ukrainian drones are striking targets across the city and the surrounding region. A resident provides a vivid eyewitness account. ⬇️
2/ 'Donetsk MartynoVa', a pro-Russian resident of Donetsk who positions herself as an influencer and Telegram blogger, has been writing about the deteriorating situation over the past month. On 11 May, she wrote:
3/ "The news brings information that drones are already harassing the land corridor, but, judging by the number of cars from Crimea, this doesn't stop many [travellers]."
By 18 May, the drone campaign had been stepped up:
1/ Russia's captured and corrupted bureaucracy, which is under the thumb of powerful industrial concerns and complicit politicians, is strangling independent developers of military electronics. Several developers are complaining about the situation. ⬇️
2/ Gagaring Lab, a developer of drone detectors and other military electronics, highlights how the 'People's Military-Industrial Complex' is being throttled:
"China launched a new strategy in February. China wants to be not only the world's factory, but also its laboratory."
3/ "Programmes have been launched to attract R&D companies to China. In Russian: welcome, developers, we will create the conditions for you. And here, people are worried about developers running away, but not about entire companies running away.
1/ News that Russia's BMPT Terminator, famed for its wobbly autocannons, is to be renamed the Spirodon has attracted criticism from Russian warbloggers. Perhaps not coincidentally, Spirodon also was the first name of Vladimir Putin's paternal grandfather. ⬇️
2/ According to Uralvagonzavod's official channel, "The machine, which replaces an entire unit, no longer bears the nickname of the American destroyer robot. It is our shield and sword."
3/ The official announcement says that the change in name was made "at the request of Uralvagonzavod workers (part of Rostec) and combat vehicle crews ... in honour of courage, resilience, and strength of spirit."
"Why "Spiridon"? This is a rare but revered name in Russia."
1/ Russia may be forced back to its 1991 borders as the Ukraine war turns against it, a Russian warblogger warns in a gloomy commentary. The prospects of a ceasefire on the current line of contact are slipping away and the threat to Russia itself is increasing. ⬇️
2/ 'Tulenkov', a Russian former soldier who fought in Ukraine, writes:
"As far as I can tell from my understanding of the situation on the battlefields of the Special Military Operaion, we've already lost sight of the option of freezing the line of contact."
3/ "Currently, it's of no interest to the enemy and its masters.
Until they fully exploit the capabilities of Palantir and other Karpov-like ideas, no one will put the war on hold.
Therefore, the next stage of real negotiations will be the 1991 borders.
1/ Russian soldiers in Ukraine are unhappy that army health and safety inspectors have ordered them to tear down their camouflage nets because they are too flammable. They've been told to put up bright red fire safety equipment instead. ⬇️
2/ 'Unofficial Bezsonov' complains:
"A commission from Moscow visited some of our units' temporary deployment locations. They ordered us to remove camouflage nets, as they violate fire safety regulations, and to hang up red signs like these."
3/ "Friends, these are frontline zones where our soldiers are trying to deploy secretly.
The war is five years old, but the number of differently-talented people serving on these commissions hasn't decreased.
1/ A fuel shortage is expanding across Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine due to Ukraine's drone strikes. The Russian warblogger 'Two Majors' reports that it is degrading Russian combat capabilities across the Donbas front lines, as well as in the south. ⬇️
"The problem is broader than just the land corridor to Crimea.
The destruction of our logistics to an operational depth of up to 200 km creates problems not only with the fuel supply to Crimea, as esteemed Comrade Rybar writes."
3/ "The operations of Ukrainian drones over the roads of the long-suffering Donbas are no less serious, although less publicised. This is understandable, as people don't go to Donetsk for summer vacations.