Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Russia may be forced back to its 1991 borders as the Ukraine war turns against it, a Russian warblogger warns in a gloomy commentary. The prospects of a ceasefire on the current line of contact are slipping away and the threat to Russia itself is increasing. ⬇️

2/ 'Tulenkov', a Russian former soldier who fought in Ukraine, writes:

"As far as I can tell from my understanding of the situation on the battlefields of the Special Military Operaion, we've already lost sight of the option of freezing the line of contact."

3/ "Currently, it's of no interest to the enemy and its masters.

Until they fully exploit the capabilities of Palantir and other Karpov-like ideas, no one will put the war on hold.

Therefore, the next stage of real negotiations will be the 1991 borders.

4/ "Russian society today is not psychologically prepared for such an option, and accordingly, the government cannot even theoretically discuss such conditions.

5/ "Consequently, we are in for a rather heated summer and fall, during which the enemy, through long-range strikes, will shape public opinion in the Russian Federation in favour of "finishing at any cost."

6/ "Things that seem bizarre and unthinkable now will become a normal topic of discussion towards the end of 2026.

Until then, unfortunately, the flywheel of death and destruction cannot be stopped.

7/ "The chance to escape the war will not appear until society grows to understand the inevitability of a complete withdrawal from Ukrainian territory and accepts this reality.

8/ "Naturally, all of this could have been avoided a year ago, with a sober perspective. However, the top political leadership chose its own reality, one in which it is half a step away from victory.

9/ "This will cost thousands of lives and wasted billions, ultimately resulting in a brutal offer that must be accepted immediately, without hesitation.

10/ "Because the next stage, which will have to be seriously discussed if the "1991 border" format fails, will be the AA line [a reference to the Arkhangelsk–Astrakhan Line, Nazi Germany's planned border for the annexation of western Russia] and "oil for food."

11/ "The option that allows for saving face has been irrevocably lost, to my great regret.

But there's no one to blame here except the system of governance built on lies and shams.

12/ "By creating a reality divorced from reality, it has driven itself into zugzwang, depriving itself of the opportunity to even try to sell its end as some semblance of victory.

This is all very, very bad.

13/ "The risk of escalation is increasing exponentially, while the possibilities for a relatively reasonable end to this unnecessary and senseless war are dwindling catastrophically." /end

Source:
t.me/thulenkov2026/…