Thread by @clement_molin

In southern Ukraine 🇺🇦, Russian 🇷🇺 forces continue their offensive from Hulialpole to Orikhiv, a strategic town

I mapped more than 1 400 Russian airstrikes, supporting multiple offensive axes in May, while Ukraine nearly finished its fortifications.

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In May 2026, Russia conducted 7 486 airstrikes, I managed to locate 52% of those.

18% of those strikes are targeting ukrainian positions near Hulialpole. We can add as well 6% of related airstrikes in Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia areas.

These airstrikes have a very surprising precision (much more than elsewhere on the front), primarily targeting treelines and villages, where soldiers and drone teams are hiding.

Entire treelines are being wiped out by hundreds of FAB guided bombs.

You can see here that less than 10% of the strikes are missing the treelines...

On this map, you can see both February, March, April strikes (in red) and May strikes (in White).

You can clearly see how the focus is slowly moving west, with the first strikes behind the defensive line. Keep in mind Ternuvate, for later.

If we take a look at geolocations, here from @UAControlMap for the last 6 months, it's very difficult to find out where the frontline really is.

So I will now share my thoughts on the situation :

In the north, the ukrainians maintain a significant number of strongholds into the grey zone, some of them with drone teams. The main forces are located on the yellow rectangle.

Russian infiltrations continue (Pokrovsk'e one was only an isolated attempt).

The ukrainians continue to have full control over Ternuvate, which is barely being attack by russian forces, which shows they switched the offensive direction.

Ukraine maintains multiple strongholds and positions into the grey zone.

In the village of Vozdvyzhivka, despite the video showing a dozen of flags (probably from only a few soldiers, maybe 2-3 soldiers, which were later killed since we saw a video of the ukrainians with the russian flags), the village remains partly under control.

Ukraine still controls important bunkers on the east as well as positions in the grey zone (you can even see russian FAB strikes in May there). The village is constantly seeing infiltrations attempts, but we can say today that the ukrainians still continue to control the situation.

In the village of Verkhnia Tersa, the video showing russian flags also highlighted the presence of various numbers of infiltratots in the city.

The main fightings are still ongoing further east, in Zalyznichne where there are still some ukrainian soldiers, as well as around the positions and treelines west of Hulialpole.

Russian forces are trying to launch deep infiltrations behind the line, with a massive airstrike campaign ongoin. If they manage to secure the area, they will try to breach the new defensive line further west.

Around Hulialpilsky, a third video showing russian flags all over the town was recently published. Again, the 2 soldiers with the flags moved all around the village and this does not mean they do control the town.

For months already, the russians launched infiltrations as far as in Novoselivka. The front is slowly moving west and the situation remains very difficult for the ukrainians in this area since the logistical situation is not easy.

The overall picture : russian offensive aims at Orikhiv, they started using FAB guided bombs against the main supply road to Orikhiv.

Near Hulialpole, Russia is doing a massive airstrike campaign aimed at reaching the 1st defensive line (yellow), there is a hole in the south which can allow the russians to reach Orikhiv.

While the russians continue to attempt multiple offensive actions, the ukrainians continue to prepare their 3nd line of defense (1st and 3rd are finished).

Construction in 2024 is in white, in 2025 in yellow and 2026 in red.

These lines have 3 rows of anti-tank ditches with 2 to 4 lines of barbed wire.

Only few roads are allowing safe passage.

Here, Ukraine let some holes in the lines (in red for the 1st line, in white for others), just counting the finished new kind of defenses.

I believe these 3 highlighted roads will be a priority for russian forces to safely cross the line.

Conclusion :

The situation remains difficult, particularly because 4 armies are attacking this direction, with nearly 20% of all airstrikes used here.

Thank you for following, you can find here my responses to some questions on mid-range strikes : rferl.org/a/drones-iran-…