Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin predicts that Russia will be stripped to the bone – "IN THE EVENT OF DEFEAT, THEY WILL TAKE EVERYTHING FROM US—UP TO AND INCLUDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND SOVEREIGNTY" – in a long and deeply gloomy commentary posted on Telegram. ⬇️

2/ Girkin, who is currently in a prison for former security officials in the Kirov region, analyses the deteriorating situation in the war and warns that Russia is not going to end up in a good place:

3/ "Having taken a breather during the so-called "ceasefire," the enemy has begun a long-planned campaign to "isolate the front from the rear to great depth ," as many observers and authors have quite correctly noted.

4/ "Right now, logistics are being "extended" in Novorossiya (the "new territories") and Crimea, but there is no doubt: as the number of relevant weapons (Hornet UAVs and short-range missiles) increases—and this number will continue to grow—the enemy will certainly expand…

5/ …its "kill zones" to the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov regions (and beyond).

Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces are logically targeting the most vital and convenient lines of communication —the "salient" of our front "over Crimea" and in Donbas.

6/ "The goal is as transparent as glass— to disrupt the supply lines to troops and the population (primarily troops) at the front lines in order to force them to cease any active offensive operations,…

7/ …and then to create favorable conditions for their own successful operations in the Zaporizhzhia-Kherson and Crimean directions.

8/ "It should be noted that (although the enemy's intentions were blatantly obvious for many months, if not years), our side turned out to be completely unprepared for the new capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces—…

9/ …neither technically, nor informationally, nor organisationally. "Winter has arrived again completely unexpectedly."

10/ "If any countermeasures were being prepared or undertaken against the swarms of medium-range UAVs with AI, they are completely invisible and unknown to an outside observer, while the enemy's measures, unfortunately, are succeeding (and their success is quite obvious!).

11/ "In case, if the "new blockade" drags on for weeks and countermeasures aren't found and implemented, the consequences will be extremely negative and tragic, and the strategic situation for our troops will deteriorate significantly, and this is inevitable.

12/ "Currently, a series of debates have taken place right here (in the prison) between experts (military and technical—there are quite a few of us) regarding possible "countermeasures."

13/ "Some are proposing a sharp increase in the number of MOGs (maneuverable fire groups) and even suggesting a "continuous air defence line" from the Belarusian border to the Black Sea…

14/ …(in this case, we're talking not only about repelling Hornet/Martian air strikes, but also about countering the increasing attacks of enemy long-range unmanned aircraft).

15/ "Personally, I believe that all such measures are both insufficient and ineffective, since passive defence is always weaker than offence when the enemy holds the initiative…

16/ …(and this applies to the use of UAVs and other unmanned systems, while now the initiative is entirely in the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces).

17/ "No matter how much you build a defence, "a bullet will find a hole," especially since the enemy—seeing the success of its efforts—will inevitably increase the number, equipment,…

18/ …and technical capabilities of its offensive assets, trying to always stay one step ahead of all means and forms of passive defence.

19/ "I believe that after four years of war, it is high time to create and launch into mass production a couple of generations of "air defence drones"—"fighter drones"—including those with AI elements (the ability to independently patrol areas of responsibility,…

20/ …detect, identify, and destroy enemy bombers and reconnaissance aircraft). However, as far as I understand, this is still a long way off, and if experimental prototypes of this type of technology already exist, they exist (at best) in single units.

21/ "Nevertheless, the "drone revolution" will inevitably (in my opinion) repeat all the stages of the development of manned military aviation (which rapidly emerged and developed during World War I).

22/ "They are already repeating themselves with enviable precision: first, only reconnaissance drones; then drone bombers, drone attack aircraft, and light transport systems; and now the emergence of the first drone fighters and interceptors.

23/ "All of this will rapidly (in fierce competition in the skies above the front lines and in the rear) "mutate"—develop, become more complex, and acquire new tactical techniques and concepts for strategic use.

24/ "Drones will very soon (we're talking years) completely displace manned aircraft from the frontline skies, just as airplanes once swept away the most advanced zeppelins and aerostats.

25/ "Missile-carrying drones, machine-gun/artillery drones—in short, "drones for all occasions"—will appear (are already appearing).

26/ "And we're falling behind again (but, on the other hand, we're rebuilding the Chelyabinsk Tank School, even though the tank in the current war has become a very expensive, but still merely highly mobile artillery piece).

27/ "Instead of new air defence schools and unmanned systems schools, communications schools, and other high-tech modern weapons systems, we'll have tanks. (I like "land battleships," but I like cavalry even more—maybe we should restore a cavalry school or two?)

28/ "From medium-range drones, I'll move on to the next pressing (though not entirely new) topic: long-range UAV raids and missile attacks on Russia's "deep rear."

29/ "The enemy continues to successfully (there are simply tons of unprotected targets!) "take out" our most important industrial facilities and oil and gas complexes. And, naturally, they will continue to do so on an ever-increasing scale.

30/ "Military production in NATO/EU countries is steadily growing, and supplies to the so-called "Ukraine" are growing accordingly; Russia either lacks the ability to destroy/stop production, or isn't even considering such a possibility theoretically.

31/ "And—since the most reliable method (“our infantryman’s boot on an enemy airfield”) is no longer relevant (our military-political leaders have ineptly/cowardly squandered all real opportunities to do so)—…

32/ …I no longer see any other means other than inflicting disarming strikes on the so-called “Ukraine” by any means necessary. (Perhaps they exist, and I’m wrong.)

33/ "At the same time, wasting Oreshniks and other expensive missiles on the targets they currently strike is practically pointless (I've pointed out above, and have pointed out before,…

34/ …that the majority of military production is already outside the so-called "Ukraine," and its share will objectively grow —soon Kyiv will be asked to produce "only meat and nothing more"—the rest will be given).

35/ "But there is that very logistics that the enemy is now deliberately "knocking out" of us. It is supply, delivery, deployment, and support that are key to the success of both modern military operations and a "combat-ready" economy.

36/ "In this regard, we are in a complete mess: after every report of a complex missile and drone strike on “Ukrainian” cities, we can add with a smile: “not a single bridge was damaged during the attack”…

37/ …(after which we can talk pompously and with emotion about “our natural peacefulness,” ignoring the fact that such “peacefulness and humanity” cost both the soldiers at the front and the civilian population IN OUR OWN REAR.

38/ "As far as I understand, by the time the Kremlin gets around to the idea of striking enemy logistics not for intimidation, but for its actual destruction, it will (as always) be critically late.

39/ "In the meantime, we're holding the so-called "elections" and the SPIEF (equally pointless imitations of useful activity, except that the "elections" cost far more than their "favourite revelry" in St. Petersburg).

40/ "And we (or rather, our irreplaceable and uncontested VIP officials) don't care about any bombing problems—their villas and dacha communities are STILL reliably protected and aren't a primary target for enemy strikes…

41/ …(mainly because our own troops are strictly forbidden from striking the homes and persons of our "esteemed Kyiv partners," and they—again, STILL (only for now!)—"mutually respect" the right to life and wealth of our Russian "elite").

42/ "The last point I'd like to address in this (very hurried and fussy—I'm constantly being interrupted) letter is the popular (O. Tsarev's blog, Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper) discussion of "lost wars and humiliating armistices led to 'breakthroughs'."

43/ "Let me begin by saying that a "breakthrough" of this kind could easily be understood not only (for example) as the large-scale reforms in the Russian Empire after the unsuccessful Crimean War, but also, for example,…

44/ …the emergence and rise to power of the Nazi Party in Germany, led by Hitler—with the subsequent outbreak of World War II and the utter destruction of that very Germany that had made that "breakthrough."

45/ "So, as I've written many times, for us, defeat in this war (still shamefacedly referred to as the "Special Military Operation") will mean not a "breakthrough" at all, but the disintegration of the traditional historical state, a complete or partial (at a minimum) loss of…

46/ …sovereignty, the loss of vast territories (and those richest in natural resources); a series of civil wars and—as a consequence—enormous human losses (not so much from military action as from catastrophic famines and epidemics).

47/ "I won't even mention such a "trifle" as a change of government (the threat of which is the only thing that worries the cretins in power): it's a self-evident consequence with 100% probability.

48/ "I suspect that some "elites" see defeat as something like this: "We lose in a civilised manner, give up Crimea and other 'new territories,' pay up and repent,…

49/ …but our 'partners' also lift all sanctions and don't bother us with new claims, and everything returns to normal—as it was before 2014."

50/ "I can assure you that in the event of a real defeat, nothing like that will happen: they will take everything from us—including nuclear weapons and sovereignty – and then they will be ROBBED in a way that even defeated Germany wasn't robbed in 1918 and 1945.

51/ "And the so-called "elite" will be robbed blindly too (simply because there will be no one left to protect them, and for those elites, they are still strangers and merely "an object of high food value").

52/ "So few will survive (in terms of preserving at least part of what they "acquired through backbreaking labour") that it will fit within the values ​​of statistical error. Moreover, many will be eliminated physically, and many will lose their personal freedom.

53/ "Something like that..." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/strelkovii/7454
🔹 t.me/strelkovii/7455
🔹 t.me/strelkovii/7456