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Smirkley Profile picture
@Smirkley
Jun 11 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Denmark publishes crime by country of origin, not nationality. I looked at 2021-2025 data.

Overall: Somali-origin 7.8x the Danish rate. American-origin 0.34x.

Thread of Top Five and Bottom Five. Penal code conviction rates by origin, Denmark. Statistics Denmark STRAFNA4, 2021-205. @smirkley
Violence in Denmark:

Somali-origin 9.2x the Danish rate.

American & German-origin ~0.3x.

Note: Lebanon = Palestinians via Lebanon mostly Violence conviction rates by origin, Denmark. @Smirkley
Grievous assault in Denmark:

Somali-origin 19.3x the Danish rate. Lebanese 11.9x, Moroccan 7.5x.

American-origin 0.18x. Imagine being 100x more violent than Americans! Grievous assault conviction rates by origin, Denmark
Homicide incl. attempted in Denmark:
Somali-origin 37.6x the Danish rate. Lebanese 14.3x, Iranian 10.4x. Homicide conviction rates by origin, Denmark
Rape convictions in Denmark:

Syrian-origin 11.5x the Danish rate, Somali 10.3x. Rape conviction rates by origin, Denmark
Robbery Convictions in Denmark Top Five and Bottom Five:

Somali-origin 28.8x the Danish rate. Robbery conviction rates by origin, Denmark. @smirkley
Threats: Somali-origin 6.6x.

Chinese-origin: zero convictions in 5 yrs. Threat conviction rates by origin, Denmark
Forgery in Denmark:

Somali-origin 13.0x, Lebanese 12.8x, Syrian 9.8x.

Spanish & Chinese-origin: zero. Forgery conviction rates by origin, Denmark
Drugs:

Somali-origin 12.6x.
Chinese-origin 0.12x.

Source: Statistics Denmark STRAFNA4 & FOLK2, per 100K residents 15-79, immigrants + descendants.

End 🧵 conviction rates by origin, Denmark. Source: Statistics Denmark STRAFNA4, 2021-205. @smirkley
@jonatanpallesen has much more complete data and over a longer period.

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More from @Smirkley

Smirkley Profile picture
Jun 12
87 nationalities had a higher sexual offence conviction rate than the British population, which already includes non-whites. Do you think the myth buster mentioned this “myth.”

No she whined about search disparities because she can’t figure out what an appropriate base rate is. Image
If a visa/asylum system imports a disproportionately young-male pop, the unadjusted crime contribution is policy relevant. Using adjusted stats is unless you’re switching to importing grandmothers from Sudan.
The number of foreign nationals in prison is shaped by policies that allow, at least some, prisoners to be deported before the end of their sentences. Does this happen with Native Brits?

Are you rehearsing for a job at Cato?
Read 5 tweets
Smirkley Profile picture
Jun 12
Somalis in Canada are getting an entire month in their honor. And don’t you think it’s about time? Look at the economic impact.

58.5% of Somali men had zero employment income a full decade in Canada. Zero.

Here is how they stack against other refugees. Share of refugee men with no earnings. Source: Statistics Canada. @smirkley
7 in 10 Somali women reported no earnings 10 years in. Zero. Share of refugee women with no earnings. Source: Statistics Canada. @smirkley
StatCan tracked every major refugee cohort to Canada, 1980-2009. Earnings per adult man 10 years after landing: Somalia men $11.2k? That can’t be right. Refugee earnings per adult man by source country. Source: Statistics Canada. @smirkley
Read 4 tweets
Smirkley Profile picture
May 31
12 years ago, a woman made and released a viral video documenting street harassment in New York.

Liberals noticed, because their ability to notice only goes so far, that almost all of the catcallers shown were black or Hispanic. So they called her racist.

To placate the mob, she suggested white men behaved similarly and promised the release of follow-up footage. She never did. For the obvious reason that it didn’t exist.
Receipts part one because people are saying I’m lying. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Smirkley Profile picture
May 13
Supply & demand works.
191 US counties: more vacant rental units means faster falling rents. r = −0.66. @smirkley scatter plot, Apartment List April 2026 data, 191 US counties showing rental vacancy rate versus year-over-year rent growth, strong negative correlation r equals negative 0.66
Same story at the metro level. 123 markets. r = -0.64 @smirkley scatter chart from Apartment List April 2026, 123 US metros, rental vacancy rate on x-axis, year-over-year rent growth on y-axis, Pearson r negative 0.64, clear downward trend line
Holds at city level too. 167 US cities, r = −0.58.
Every 1pp of extra vacancy = rents falling ~1.1pp faster year-over-year. smirkley data visualization using Apartment List 2026 vacancy and rent growth figures for 167 US cities, scatter plot showing negative correlation between rental vacancy and rent change, r equals negative 0.58.
Read 6 tweets
Smirkley Profile picture
Apr 25
Germany published 2025 crime data (BKA PKS) broken down by nationality. By request, I grouped them into 11 regions.

Violent crime:
East Asians commits violent crime at 0.46× the German rate.
MENA+ is at 8.43x. 1/ world regions in Germany, violent crime suspects per 100K as a multiple of the German rate (158/100K), sorted lowest to highest. East Asia 0.46×, SE Asia 0.84×, South Asia 1.15×, W. Europe 1.48×, Americas 1.54×, E. Europe 2.63×, C. Europe 2.80×, C.Asia/Caucasus 3.18×, Balkans 3.72×, Sub-Saharan Africa 6.57×, MENA+ 8.43×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. AZR 2024. @smirkley
Overall crime 🇩🇪 2025:
East Asia is the only region below the German rate at 0.67×.
MENA+ (3.96×) & Sub-Saharan Africa (3.91×). 2/ Overall crime rate by region, excluding immigration offenses, as multiple of German rate (1,770/100K). East Asia 0.67×, SE Asia and South Asia both 1.01×, Americas 1.60×, W. Europe 1.66×, E. Europe 2.17×, C.Asia/Cauc 2.51×, C. Europe 2.96×, Balkans 3.38×, Sub-Sah. Africa 3.91×, MENA+ 3.96×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026.
Murder 🇩🇪 2025:
South Asia records 0× murder suspects — no recorded cases among India & Sri Lanka residents.
MENA+ murders at 7.09× the German rate. 3/ Bar chart, 11 regions, murder rate as multiple of German rate (0.7/100K). South Asia 0.00×, SE Asia 1.06×, Americas 1.09×, East Asia 1.19×, E. Europe 1.70×, W. Europe 2.10×, C. Europe 2.58×, Balkans 3.78×, Sub-Saharan Africa 3.92×, C.Asia/Caucasus 5.69×, MENA+ 7.09×. BKA PKS 2025, April 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. @smirkley Charlie Smirkley
Read 12 tweets
Smirkley Profile picture
Apr 24
Germany just released 2025 crime data.

Overall, Algerian nationals commit crime at 18x the rate of Germans and nearly 100x the rate of Japanese nationals. 1/11 Bar chart, Germany 2025, overall crime by nationality excl. immigration offenses, as multiple of German rate (1,770/100K). Japan 0.19×, Korea 0.35×, Indonesia 0.38×, Philippines 0.51×, Finland 0.68×, Guinea 7.54×, Moldova 7.57×, Gambia 7.93×, Georgia 11.11×, Algeria 18.40×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Murder 🇩🇪 2025:
Tunisia: 27× German rate.
India, Spain, Austria, Pakistan, UK and others zero murder suspects in 2025 across combined 840K+ residents. 2/11 Alt: Bar chart, murder suspects/100K, ×German rate (0.7/100K). India 0×, Spain 0×, Austria 0×, Pakistan 0×, UK 0×, Georgia 14.17×, Sweden 15.61×, Algeria 16.80×, Lebanon 18.08×, Tunisia 27.34×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K. 0 = no suspects recorded.
Manslaughter 🇩🇪 2025:
Algeria 43×, Gambia 28×, Tunisia 24×.
UK, Thailand, Philippines, Switzerland & Japan: zero. 3/11 Bar chart, manslaughter suspects/100K, ×German rate (1.5/100K). UK 0×, Thailand 0×, Philippines 0×, Switzerland 0×, Japan 0×, Somalia 14.82×, Guinea 17.48×, Tunisia 23.59×, Gambia 27.62×, Algeria 43.02×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Read 12 tweets

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