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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Jun 13 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Snyder: The U.S. is not just unreliable, it is behaving strangely.

Allies like Romania, Poland, Taiwan and South Korea expect America to save resources for serious moments, not waste munitions, reputation and focus on wars it cannot explain. 1/
Snyder: Trump wants to be Putin but cannot. He wants Putin’s money, Putin’s ability to fight wars, Putin’s power.

But he lacks the patience, attention span and competence and he is afraid of American public opinion. 2/
Snyder: Putin does have a vision for Russia. It is terrible, totalitarian and built on a false past where Russia and Ukraine were supposedly one.

He wants to be remembered as a ruler who brought more territory into Russia. 3/
Snyder: Russia can be stopped. Serious oil and gas sanctions, actually enforced, plus weapons for Ukraine, would make it impossible for Russia to continue the war.

Ukraine is doing far better than analysts predicted. 4/
Snyder: Trump’s Iran war is helping Russia stay in Ukraine.

By pushing oil prices artificially high and using the war as a pretext to lift sanctions, the Trump administration has made it possible for Russia to keep fighting. 5/
Snyder: Orban’s defeat is extremely consequential. Orban was not just a leader.

He was a system, an authoritarian model inside the EU, a far-right oligarchic network, and a channel for Russian money into Western institutions. 6X
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 18
Ukraine’s 20-somethings are reshaping its war machine and displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense.

A Defense Ministry staffer in her early 20s found Denmark had earmarked the wrong shells for Ukraine and secured 15,000 long-range rounds, NYT. 1/ Image
The staffer works under Oleksii Antoniuk, 24, deputy head of the ministry’s cooperation department.
Oleksii: “If not for her, this wouldn’t have happened.”

Young Ukrainians under 30 are gradually displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense. 2/
The shift runs through Ukraine’s war machine.

Twentysomething engineers design drones, young entrepreneurs turn prototypes into production lines, and recent graduates at the Defense Ministry cut red tape to speed weapons to the front. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 18
Applebaum: Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 partly as a direct challenge to NATO and the United States.

Moscow wanted to prove there was no Western alliance, that Ukraine was not a real country, and that Europe and America would not come to its defense. 1/
Applebaum: Russia wanted to show that it alone was the sovereign power in Eastern Europe and would decide what happened there.

Instead, it was surprised: the United States and a united Europe pulled together and proved that a democratic world still exists. 2/
Applebaum: Negotiations will become possible only when Russia decides to stop fighting and accepts that it cannot achieve its main goal—the destruction of Ukraine as a nation.

Russia has not reached that point. Putin has never withdrawn that objective. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 18
Applebaum: The war with Iran was clearly a war of choice. Israel had proposed this kind of action to previous US presidents, and they declined.

They understood the immediate danger to international shipping and especially to the oil and gas industries. 1/
Applebaum: Trump now appears to regret the war, or at least has no interest in continuing it.

He is seeking an agreement that could resemble — or even be slightly worse than — the Obama-era deal, while the claim that Iran was about to get a bomb does not add up. 2/
Applebaum: Trump failed to account for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or retaliating against Gulf states, and then expressed surprise.

Yet anyone who had studied a war with Iran over the past two decades had already identified both risks as obvious possibilities. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 18
Applebaum: Trump’s relationship with Erdoğan grows out of his business dealings in Turkey.

He invested there, believes those investments went well, and his family company still has interests there — or could. He sees the world in personal, transactional terms. 1/
Applebaum: Trump does not think like a traditional American president representing US interests, the Western alliance, or the democratic world.

He asks what is good for him personally. He likes Erdoğan, and that is the simplest way to understand their closeness. 2/
Applebaum: Trump states his personal view and assumes that it therefore becomes the policy of the United States.

But the American system is more complicated than the president’s preferences: Congress may still restrain the weapons sales he wants to make to Turkey. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 18
Zelenskyy: I spoke at length with Mykhailo Fedorov today. I also spoke with Oleksandr Syrskyi.

I hear what people are saying. Decisions on the army are coming. There were many consultations yesterday and today. 1/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine struck targets near Moscow and in the Tambov region.

We hit Russian logistics sites and warehouses that supplied navigation equipment, drone components and other materiel to the Russian army. 2/
Zelenskyy: Ukrainian weapons also hit another Russian oil facility and targets in the Azov and Black Sea waters.

This was an important operation. More will follow. Ukraine will also receive more medium-range strike capabilities. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 18
Zelenskyy is considering replacing Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky.

He may do so if he finds a successor who can ensure a smooth transfer and hold a stable defense along the 1,200 km front.

He will meet commanders this weekend to assess candidates, FT. 1/ Image
The crisis started after Syrsky gave Zelenskyy an ultimatum to remove Fedorov, according to Fedorov.

Zelenskyy said the two men no longer spoke directly without him mediating. 2/
Fedorov said Syrsky blocked defense ministry reforms.

He argued Ukraine needs new senior military leadership to fight Russia asymmetrically, with drones, automation and fewer losses. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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