1/ Summer vacations in Crimea are definitely off, in the face of constant Ukrainian drone attacks and worsening fuel shortages across the peninsula. The Crimean economy is said to be in deep trouble, with factories and amenities closing, and workers being laid off en masse. ⬇️
2/ 'Your News' laments:
"Comrades from Crimea report: the resort season on the peninsula has been almost completely cancelled.
Fuel is hard to come by, or not available at all."
3/ "Destroyed factories and oil depots are not resuming operations, but simply disappearing from the economic map along with their workers.
Hundreds of workers are being sent on unpaid leave or simply laid off due to a lack of jobs.
4/ "Cafes, restaurants, hotels—in general, Crimean businesses have ground to a halt.
No fuel means no tourists.
No tourists means no business in Crimea. Exactly.
Add to this the regular shelling of cities on the peninsula, and the picture becomes especially frightening.
5/ "Drones are flying to Crimea based on American intelligence, using American components, purchased with American money.
Secretary of State Rubio told us directly: "We support Ukraine, Ukraine is ours, we don't need a Russian victory."
He said this several times.
6/ "Negotiator Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Kushner are planning to visit Moscow.
Iran is celebrating its victory over them, and we're preparing to give them a warm welcome.
7/ "We'll be trying to persuade them to put pressure on Zelenskyy.
1/ In the aftermath of yesterday's Ukrainian attack on Moscow, many Russian warbloggers are calling for Russia to "start fighting for real" and are blaming the Kremlin for not prosecuting the war with sufficient ferocity. One warblogger explains why this is a fantasy. ⬇️
2/ Roman Yuneman writes:
"In the wake of today's attack on Moscow, I'm again seeing many comments along the lines of "well, are we going to endure this again?", "when are we going to start a real war?", "why are we showing them any mercy?" and so on."
3/ "It's a rather convenient myth that Russia could immediately launch a devastating response, but we're simply not doing so out of nobility or some other notion held by our leadership. This is a half-truth.
1/ How did Ukraine strike Moscow yesterday? A Russian commentary provides a useful overview of the munitions that were used in the attack on the Moscow oil refinery. ⬇️
To strike the Russian capital, the enemy deployed a wide range of long-range fixed-wing UAVs. Ukrainian public groups report that these included, in particular, the AN-196 "Lyutyi," FP-1, "Bars," and "Bobr" drones.
3/ "AN-196 "Lyutyi". A long-range fixed-wing kamikaze drone, developed by the Antonov Design Bureau and manufactured by Ukroboronprom. It is constructed using an integrated twin-boom design with a pusher propeller and a fiberglass body.
1/ Crimea is falling into a critical situation, says Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, while in the war as a whole, Russia is "very close to the line beyond which lies military defeat". He lambasts the Kremlin for "lethargy" and living in fantasy on the "Planet of the Pink Ponies". ⬇️
2/ Writing to a friend from his jail, Girkin comments on Ukraine's drone offensive:
"– The situation in Crimea. It is grave now, but promises to become critical in just a few weeks if the enemy continues its strategic air offensive against it at an increasing pace.
3/ "Naturally, this is not just a coincidence - the enemy has far-reaching strategic plans in this direction and is preparing to implement them, increasingly disrupting Crimea's communications with Northern Taurida [i.e. the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions]…
1/ Much worse is to come in Moscow, warns Russian warblogger 'Intelligence Diary'. An AI analysis shows that the city is full of strategic targets that Ukraine may try to hit as its drone offensive increases in scale and scope. ⬇️
"Drones have struck the Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya for the third time since May. The question isn't whether the attacks will continue, but what will happen next."
3/ "Moscow and the surrounding region are the country's largest industrial region. High-tech production facilities are concentrated here, protected by air defences—things Russia can't afford to lose: energy, rocket science, and the defence industry.
1/ Ukraine's massive drone strike against Moscow – with a reported 555 drones and missiles fired, and 180 claimed to have been shot down over Moscow – has prompted anger, defiance, and resignation from Russian warbloggers. "Tehran is safer", one says. ⬇️
2/ In a since-deleted comment, 'Fighterbomber' writes:
"The strikes on Moscow are alarming and concerning, primarily because, over the past four years, an air defence system has been built around Moscow that is unrivaled anywhere in the world."
3/ "I don't think there's even one comparable in quality and effectiveness.
And it's letting through strikes. It's letting through strikes even on the same target.
1/ Everything's fine, there's nothing to worry about, says Russian political scientist Sergey Markov. Only minor damage has been inflicted by today's Ukrainian strike against Moscow and the most powerful air defence system in the world has been effective. ⬇️
2/ In a masterpiece of minimisation, Markov writes:
"Moscow Mayor Sobyanin stated that Moscow suffered another attempted air strike today, with 180 Ukrainian Armed Forces drones shot down as they approached Moscow."
3/ "Several drones reached the oil refinery in Kapotnya, a district of Moscow. The Sadovod complex also sustained minor damage."
Sadovod is a huge market, apparently the largest in Europe, located essentially in Moscow, just outside the Moscow Ring Road, not far from Kapotnya.