1/ Prominent Russian warblogger Maxim Kalashnikov has been arrested on suspicion of assisting Ukraine's drone strikes against the Moscow Oil Refinery. Other warbloggers are gloating. ⬇️
2/ 'Alex Parker Returns' is gleeful:
"The dick has played his violin too much. Political blogger and publicist, and dare I say it, war correspondent, Maxim Kalashnikov, was summoned to the police for publishing the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow."
3/ "Investigators believe he worked as a spotter for the crests and recorded the results of the incoming attacks, along with the locations of air defence systems. Those responsible for this morning's massive strike have been found."
4/ 'Beware, news' provides more background:
"According to Kalashnikov, he was summoned to the Moscow Southern District Police Department for publishing a video of a burning oil refinery in Kapotnya—referring to the June 16 attack.
5/ "I went to the Southern District Police Department of Moscow to give an explanation. I'll let you know when everything is cleared up. Meanwhile, the enemy has dealt the plant another serious blow, alas..." he wrote.
6/ "Fifty-nine-year-old Maxim Kalashnikov (the pseudonym of blogger Vladimir Kucherenko) worked at Vechernyaya Moskva and Rossiyskaya Gazeta, and was editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier.
7/ "Kalashnikov, a member of the Party of Business, holds right-wing positions, supports the Special Military Operation, and in 2023 became a member of the Club of Angry Patriots, Igor Strelkov's organization."
8/ The Russian authorities have been seeking to suppress footage of Ukraine's strikes against Moscow and other Russian cities – a failing effort, given the flood of videos published this morning. However, it seems to have silenced Kalashnikov for now. /end
1/ The frequently shifting goals of the war in Ukraine have presented a consistent problem with motivating Russian soldiers to fight. One Russian warblogger has a modest proposal: reframe the war around the concept that "Kyiv must be destroyed." ⬇️
2/ The Russian government has advanced several objectives for the war in Ukraine, none of which have been achieved. They include 'denazification' (i.e. removing the democratically elected Ukrainian government), demilitarisation, and securing Russia's conquests in Ukraine.
3/ Outside the relatively small ultranationalist community (and the Russian government), these have only attracted lukewarm public support. Russian soldiers have often complained that they do not understand why they are fighting.
1/ The Ukrainian drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries is impacting daily life in Russia to an unprecedented extent. Drivers are being forced into desperate measures, such as buying diesel siphoned off from locomotives and resold by corrupt railway employees. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet 'We can explain' notes that "there are now regions where there isn't a single accessible gas station." The channel's subscribers have shared how the gasoline shortage is changing their daily lives:
3/👨🦱 Mikhail, a tourist bus driver:
"Every week, new limits come out of the blue. What do you do when you and your passengers have no fuel at night, or they don't give you fuel because of restrictions? Our typical fill-up is 300-400 litres.
1/ Ukraine's drone blockade of Crimea is tightening, with yet more ships hit in the Sea of Azov. Russia is reported to have halted shipping in the area in response. This is likely to have drastic effects not just on Crimea but on many Russian exports. ⬇️
2/ Reuters reports that Russia has suspended shipping on the Azov-Don Canal due to Ukrainian attacks, according to sources in Russia's grain export industry. Up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports pass through this route. Wheat market prices have already risen 4% as a result.
3/ The Russian border services have also reportedly told shipping companies that passage through the Kerch Strait between the Sea of Azov and Black Sea has similarly been suspended. This effectively blocks ships from passing under the bridge to Crimea.
1/ The killers of a pro-Russian American are reportedly to be pardoned and sent to fight in Ukraine. 'Donbass Cowboy' Russell Bentley died under torture, reportedly after being electrocuted, and was subsequently blown into pieces in an attempt to cover up the killing. ⬇️
2/ Bentley was a communist activist and convicted marijuana smuggler from Texas who travelled to the occupied Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 to fight in a pro-Russian militia. He married a local woman, settled in Donetsk city, and became a warblogger after being demobilised.
3/ He was abducted on 8 April 2024 by soldiers of the 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' after being suspected of spying on the aftermath of a Ukrainian artillery strike. The men took him to a nearby abandoned mine repurposed as a torture centre.
1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️
2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:
– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;