Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Ukraine's massive drone strike against Moscow – with a reported 555 drones and missiles fired, and 180 claimed to have been shot down over Moscow – has prompted anger, defiance, and resignation from Russian warbloggers. "Tehran is safer", one says. ⬇️

https://x.com/BohuslavskaKate/status/2067449379816902726?s=20

2/ In a since-deleted comment, 'Fighterbomber' writes:

"The strikes on Moscow are alarming and concerning, primarily because, over the past four years, an air defence system has been built around Moscow that is unrivaled anywhere in the world."

3/ "I don't think there's even one comparable in quality and effectiveness.

And it's letting through strikes. It's letting through strikes even on the same target.

4/ "It doesn't matter how many millions of targets your air defences have shot down if the facility they're protecting is hit. This means the enemy has correctly calculated the forces and assets needed to hit the target. But you haven't.

5/ "Moreover, the cost ratio between anti-aircraft missiles and drones today is such that a drone attacker wins purely economically even if they don't hit anything. And they do hit.

6/ "And if they can reliably hit a target of interest in Moscow, they can hit any other target in the country with much less effort.

And I'll remind you today that they're achieving their goals practically exclusively using drones.

7/ "With the advent of other offensive weapons, in sufficient quantities, he will achieve these goals even faster and easier.

8/ "One can only hope that these are temporary difficulties, and that somewhere, through secret underground passages, from afar, invincible reinforcements are rushing in the form of wonder weapons or technical solutions, and any minute now, very soon... Already tomorrow...

9/ "As has been said many times, today no one in the country gives a damn how [Ukrainians] are suffering. How badly they are suffering, and how shocked NATO is by our responses.

10/ "Today, everyone is interested in that very security of ours that we have been told about from every radio for years, and in fact, it is becoming less and less."

'WELDERS' asks why the drones weren't shot down by the outer ring of Moscow's air defences:

11/ "We can't understand why they're being met on the Moscow Ring Road and in Sadovod, but not at least at the Moscow region border, or, even better, at the Loboda border crossing. Is it really true that there are no radars?"

12/ Alexey Zhivov suggests that the attack overloaded Moscow's air defences, and warns that it presages future attacks:

"It seems that the enemy has reached the limits of the capital's air defence capabilities."

13/ "Given that all these attacks are coordinated through Palantir and immediately analysed, the enemy now has an understanding of the maximum capabilities of Moscow's defence."

14/ Andrey Medvedev similarly says that the 16 June attack on the Kapotnya oil refinery was a reconnaissance in force leading to today's overwhelming attack:

"In May, I wrote: the enemy is probing the echelons, looking for vulnerabilities, testing the reaction time of the crews.

18/ "And at the same time, it wouldn't hurt to explain to the country's population where the 'red lines' are, beyond which the enemy should be consumed by nuclear fire, according to the current nuclear doctrine."

19/ 'Old Soldier' has a view of the fires and smoke from his apartment, and doesn't like what he sees:

"The Moscow Oil Refinery is fucked. The city is covered in choking smoke. I woke up to the first explosion. Then I watched the landings and the fires from my window online."

20/ "I won't post the video. To hell with this "hot content."

Here's a little cloud for you.

Moscow will come to a standstill in 3…2…1. As if it’ll come to a standstill – we’ve got electric buses and the Metro.

21/ "But, damn, just two days after a reconnaissance-in-force attack on the most heavily guarded oil refinery in Russia.

‘We’ll put up with it.’

22/ 'Intelligence Diary' is rueful:

"It's funny, but Tehran is currently safer and calmer than Moscow, even though Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons, but it does have the courage to stand up to threats. The result is right outside our window."

23/ "The entire Special Military Operation was based on a simple principle. The war would take place somewhere far away, and there would be a peaceful, normal life in the rear with no mobilisation. For the average person, nothing would change.

24/ "But provoking weakness and constantly pushing back red lines eventually led to missile strikes on the capital. The result was predictable."

Yuri Baranchik similarly thinks that the strikes are the result of the Ukrianians being insufficiently terrorised:

25/ "Probably, since the summer-autumn of 2022, I've been writing about the need for escalation, the need to "take off the white gloves", to determine its levels ourselves, about strikes on Bankova Street, etc. etc.

26/ "Did we have to wait for strikes on Moscow before it became clear that a strike could also hit us? Was it not enough to see the examples of other cities and people killed en masse, daily human losses, oil refineries burning all over the country, etc., to understand this?...

27/ "If nothing has changed in three (!) years, is it surprising that the enemy has resorted to systematic strikes on Moscow? And why is he doing this – it's also clear – the elections to the State Duma are coming soon.

28/ "And if the authorities don't end this quickly and harshly, then the "electoral consequences" of "retaliatory strikes" are understandable even to a layperson."

Rybar highlights the problem of massive Ukrainian strikes depleting Russia's air defence missile inventories:

29/ "The massive strike on Moscow by Ukrainian drones (and the broader events in the Special Military Operation zone) has once again raised the issue of a shortage of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs)...

30/ "Assembling the RAS-3 SAM system "on the fly" is simply unrealistic due to its complexity. It requires extremely scarce components, qualified specialists, and especially contracts.

31/ "In the Russian context, this is especially important for end users of these same air defence missile systems and ammunition to place orders in advance. A defence industry company cannot assemble air defence missiles without demand and adequate funding.

32/ "Even under these conditions, the Russian Air Defence Forces are doing a tremendous job, as today's air strike alone shot down over 98% of all drones and four Flamingo cruise missiles.

33/ "But it was the UAVs that broke through that created the difference and the panic in the media.

The shortage felt worldwide is actually creating a window of opportunity for the Russian Armed Forces. Why is there so much talk about air defence problems in so-called Ukraine?

34/ "They've simply developed huge gaps in their defences against Russian missiles, and each attack inflicts increasing damage.

35/ "If we abandon the notorious "retaliatory strike" tactic and mass salvos aimed at unknown targets for the sake of impressive statistics, and plan and select targets more appropriately, our effectiveness will increase."

36/ An angry 'Comrade Artyom' likewise demands massive retaliation:

"And the destroyed Moscow oil refinery is a sure sign that Russia is winning on all fronts.

Will they really retaliate against the enemy after this? Will they destroy the bridges across the Dnipro?"

37/ "Destroy the government quarter in Kyiv? Destroy the "SBU," the "Ministry of Defence," the "General Staff," and other Bandera-aligned command centres? Will they strike Koncha Zaspa and other towns where the palaces of the Ukrainian oligarchs are located?

38/ "And what about the embassies of countries participating in the war against Russia?

These are rhetorical questions, as you understand. The state officials will never agree to this. The political cuckoldry they profess does not allow for such behavior." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/svarschiki/125…
🔹 t.me/MedvedevVesti/…
🔹 t.me/A_S_Sukonkin/9…
🔹 t.me/zhivoff/26847
🔹 t.me/OldSoldier1969…
🔹 t.me/razvedka_ros/3…
🔹 t.me/barantchik/379…
🔹 t.me/swodki/594369
🔹 t.me/rybar/81158
🔹 t.me/t_artm/8070