Clément Molin Profile picture
Jun 18 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Ukraine 🇺🇦 has now targeted around 500 russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles during the last 48 days.

Mid-range strikes continue to expand across occupied territories, on roads, bridges and rear base. This continues to slow down russian offensive.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️
From tomorrow, I will be off for more than 1 week, which means there won't be any new map/airstrike/fortification/mid-range strikes update, apart from some small tweets.

I will however continue to follow the overall trends.
In total, I have 270 geolocated strikes on trucks and vehicles since january, most of those are from May to June.

The key Rostov-Crimea road remains the priority target, but roads in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblast have also been largely targeted. Image
Yesterday, the Ukrainian GUR published this long video featuring a large number of strikes on russian trucks in occupied Ukraine, many of which are in small roads, not on ground videos.

In total, more than 40 fuel trucks have been hit by the Ukrainians these last few months.
These strikes are still largely documented on the ground by civilians and soldiers, which are helping the Ukrainians to assess the results of the campaign.

With around 10 trucks/vehicles a day (with a recent scaling), just with visible proof, we can soon reach 100 trucks a week.

For russian forces, it can have a devastating effect on frontline logistics, since I'm counting only the mid-range strikes (more than 20km).

Here is a zoom for Donetsk and Luhansk, but the geolocated ones are very few in this area, knowing many videos come from here, it can be 4 times more.Image
In Crimea, as I already explain, Ukrainian forces are trying to set a blockade of the peninsula, mainly by targeting fuel, bridges and trucks.

This blockade cannot be 100% in effect, but a pontoon bridge is more vulnerable and binding for logistics. (@GarbuzYe in Henichesk) Image
Other strikes targeted bridges on the Mariupol-Taganrog road, which is also further complicating the ground movement.



People trying to minimise the consequences of this campaign shouldn't be taken seriously at all...
I don't need to say anything about the strikes in Moscow, since many accounts are talking about it with hundreds of videos.

But :

🔹The Ukrainians went through more than 100 air-defense systems
🔹Russian air-defense has been widely ineffective
🔹Strikes on the Moscow reffinery are very important and we can see how the strike campaign is sclaing up (more than just 3 drones)
About the fortifications :

Ukraine has largely slowed down its defensive preparations now that the main lines are complete. Work is ongoing along the borders, east of Zaporizhzhia (2nd and 4th lines), at Dnipro, north of Dobropilla, towards Sloviansk and Kharkiv.
About airstrikes :

Russian airstrikes continue at a relentless pace.

The priorities remain the same: west of Hulialpole (but not Ternuvat), west and north of Pokrovsk, east of Siversk, and the forests west of Lyman (on the other side of the river).

A new and recent focus has been placed on southern Zaporizhzhia, Chaplyne, Druzhkivka, and the few forests west of Kupyansk.
Regarding the situation on the front:

- Ukrainians are continuing the clearing operation around Stepnohirsk; the Russian advance has slowed west of Hulialpole; an assault on Mala Tokmashka has again been repelled.

- Ukrainians are pursuing a large counter-attack between Ternuvat and Novopavlivka, pushing towards two major villages, Uspenivka and Komar, to prevent their use as logistical hubs.

- Pressure continues west of Pokrovsk and towards Dobropilla, but the advance has slowed considerably thanks to a strong Ukrainian defense.

- Russian forces are beginning to take control of several districts in eastern Kostiantynivka, expelling Ukrainian forces from some strongholds. Infiltration and urban fighting continue throughout the city, with flag-raising actions that should not be interpreted as a sign of control. Overall, we are nearing the end of the battle for the city, the fall of which could be staggered until mid-summer. This is Russia's first strategic victory of the year.

-In Siversk, Russian infiltrations continue toward Sloviansk, with the first flags appearing in Rai Oleksandrivka, a strategic height east of the city. Fighting in the sector is currently in favor of Russian forces.

-In Lyman, the Ukrainians are continuing their counter-attack on the northern flank with success (although the maps do not yet show this), while Russian infiltrations continue (as they have for months) toward the city center.

-Nothing to report in Borova.
-In Kupiansk, as in Lyman, Russian infiltrations have been ongoing for months, this time concentrated on the eastern part of the city.

-No significant activity along the border, as the Russian offensive launched in the spring failed to threaten the Ukrainian rear.
That's all I gathered this afternoon about the situation in Ukraine.

Thank you for following and supporting my work. I will keep an eye on the situation.

I'm curious how much more trucks I will have to add in 10 days...

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 11
In recent weeks, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched a large number of strikes against electricity infrastructure in Crimea

Since 2026 started, both Ukraine and Russia 🇷🇺 launched continuous strikes against each other energy infrastructure.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
Recently, most of Crimea has been without power after a large number of Ukrainian strikes (source : @georgewbarros).

You can see here that most of the peninsula was lacking electricity, including large cities.
In total, around 37 electric substations have been hit, together with oil and gas infrastructure.

This has drastic consequences on both civilian and military infrastructure of the peninsula.
Read 10 tweets
Jul 8
During the first week of July, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to target Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and logistics, hitting more than 240 vehicles, 34 per day.

Despite fewer coverage, these strikes continue to be a very big problem for Russian forces across occupied territories.

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️ Image
The number of strikes continue to increase, with nearly 600 trucks and vehicles hit in june 2026 (around 20 per day) and already 240 for the 1st week of july (34 per day).

All these strikes are only the confirmed ones from ukrainian videos, I do not count videos from the ground. Image
Today, the Ukrainian army of drones () published a compilation of nearly 200 strikes on trucks and vehicles near Crimea.

This video covers multiple units work for the 1st week of July. The good point ? Everything is proven. t.me/robert_magyar/…
Read 8 tweets
Jul 3
Let's dive in Russian 🇷🇺 war propaganda machine

Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.

What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.

1/9 ⬇️ Image
Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.

Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them. Image
They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.

These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 2
In June 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 284 airstrikes, of which I managed to map 49%

This airstrike campaign is at the heart of Russian offensive strategy and one of the biggest challenge to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
With artillery and drones, airstrikes are the third phase of the Russian strike campaign.

These unguided bombs—the FAB-250, -500, -1000, and -1500—are fitted with a UMPK guidance kit and dropped from more than 50 km behind the front line.

Here you can see the results of those : Image
Image
Image
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The use of these guided bombs is steadily increasing, reaching a record high this month.

The accuracy of the FABs, which ranged from 10% to 30% last year (with "accuracy" defined as hitting something, such as a hedgerow, a village, or a forest), now stands at between 40% and 90%.Image
Read 20 tweets
Jul 1
Russian 🇷🇺 offensive assessment for June 2026

In June, Russia occupied 28 km2 and continued offensive operations in 7 directions out of 12. Russian forces took control of some neighbourhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk.

My analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️Image
Data above is from @Pouletvolant3 who has a strong regularity, using @Majakovsk73 data.

Below, Maps bases are from @M0nstas, with @Deepstate_UA and @AndrewPerpetua data.

The battle for Kostiantynivka has been ongoing for over 8 months.

Russian forces have been infiltrating the city's eastern, southern, and western sectors for several months; in recent weeks, they have—for the first time—managed to seize control of several neighborhoods, particularly in the west, and secure certain access routes to the city center.

Concurrently, Russian forces have launched a major propaganda campaign, showing flags across nearly the entire city and releasing videos showing their infiltration into most areas of Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian forces maintain a presence throughout almost the entire city, although their hold on the southeastern and southwestern neighborhoods is increasingly threatened by the Russian advance into their rear. Fighting within the neighborhoods continues, and the Russian objective remains to seize control of the two roads supplying the city.

While the majority of Ukrainian assets—including drones and artillery—were evacuated in early June, the battle for the city (much like the earlier battle for Toretsk to the south) could drag on for weeks or even months until Russian forces achieve total control, enabling them to use the city as a hub for a northward push toward Drujkivka and Kramatorsk.

Overall, the battle for the city is lost, even though the Ukrainians still control more than a quarter of it—specifically the northeastern districts. It is important to understand that it is too early for Russian forces to use the city as a launch point for artillery or drone strikes; however, the initial drone units arriving in the coming weeks could intensify the threat to the northern supply routes leading to Drujkivka.Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 30
In recent months, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to reinforce its fortifications across the country

6 months ago, Zaporizhzhia direction was lacking defensive preparation, it now has 5 defensive lines, which shows how fast Ukraine can adapt.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️ Image
Here in red are all the new fortifications built from january to jun 2026. Lines are stretching from Chernihiv to Odessa.

You can see priority was given to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Image
Near Zaporizhzhia, are still digging new lines, with currently 5 lines protecting the city from the east.

Red are lines dug in 2026, yellow in 2025 and white in 2024 (mostly obsolete). Image
Read 13 tweets

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