arctotherium Profile picture
Jun 21 12 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Excerpts from TR Fehrenbach's "Fire and Blood: A History of Mexico" (1973) on the Mexican War of Independence. The Mexican criollos were far less impressive than their South American counterparts, and produced no leaders equal to Bolivar or San Martin. Image
Where the South American criollos quickly declared independence upon the French conquest of Spain, the Mexican ones dithered. Acting quickly, the local peninsulares coup'd the government and the criollos accepted it. Image
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With the criollos basically accepting Spanish domination, leadership of the independence struggle passed to men like Miguel Hidalgo, who turned it from a (hopefully) bloodless coup to a social and race war. Image
Hidalgo appealed to the lower classes by rebelling in the name of the deposed Spanish king, with the cry "Long Live the King, Long Live America, Death to the Bad Government." Image
Hidalgo's army was effectively a gigantic mob of indio and casta poor, with a tiny core of the remaining criollo revolutionaries. This mob was quite happy to loot and butcher the European townspeople of Mexico, which led the criollos to side firmly with the viceroy. Image
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The Mexican war of independence was incredibly brutal, with torture, massacres, and decimation of civilians on both sides, perhaps in part because Mexican mortality was so high (higher than anywhere outside the Orient) already. Image
Hidalgo and his mob were defeated by the smaller but much more disciplined and professional army of the viceroy under General Callejas, but other revolutionaries popped up to replace him. Image
Anarchy swept Mexico, with hundreds of local bandits rising up in the name of independence and liberty, mostly for themselves, to rob and loot, which alienated civilized Mexicans from the idea of independence. Image
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Morelos, in the south, was another casta priest and probably the most disciplined, effective, and idealistic of the independence fighters. The latter proved his undoing; he gave power over to a congress, which turned out to be an ineffective and quarrelling junta. Image
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By 1819, after years of devastating anarchy and civil war, the Mexican insurgents had been thoroughly suppressed and Spanish power appeared stable in New Spain, while the South Americans gained independence. Image
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This produced Mexican independence almost by accident; Spanish troops headed to South America revolted, a liberal junta took power in Spain, and this liberal junta alienated the now-conservative Mexican creoles into independence, which they gained almost as an afterthought. Image
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Agustin de Iturbide, in charge of a Spanish army to suppress one of the few remaining insurgents, changed sides, entered the capital, and declared independence, and that was that. Image
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More from @arctotherium42

Jul 25
This is generically true - across almost all rich countries, women are 2-2.5x as likely to work for the state as men. Image
Removing teachers (and soldiers, for fairness) lowers the gap, but it's still a big difference. Image
You can get slightly different numbers depending on what source you use and what exactly you count as public, but they all tell the same substantive story. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 19
New blog post (link below). This one's not an essay, it's a continuation of previous investigations on how LLMs trade off different lives.

In February 2025, the Center for AI Safety published "Utility Engineering: Analyzing and Controlling Emergent Value Systems in AIs" in which they showed, among many other things, that GPT-4o values Nigerians about 20x more highly than Americans (please read the original paper to understand their approach). I updated their framework with different categories and newer models in October 2025, and discovered that with the exception of Grok 4 (Fast), all models placed far more value on the lives of "left-coded" groups (nonwhites, non-men, LGBTQ, immigrants, leftists, Third Worlders) over "right-coded" groups (whites, men, non-queers, ICE agents, rightists, First Worlders). For example, Sonnet 4.5 saw the lives of South Asians as about 18 times as valuable as the lives of whites.

However, it's been several generations of model since October 2025, so I decided to try again with today's models: Claude Fable 5, Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, Grok 4.5, and Kimi K3. As it turns out, all of them are MUCH more egalitarian than their counterparts (except Grok 4.5, since Grok 4 was already egalitarian) from a year ago.

Finding 1: Sonnet 5 was the only model even close to last year's models, valuing nonwhites roughly four times higher than whites.

Finding 2: GPT-5.6 Sol and Kimi K3 are very close to perfectly egalitarian; Sol values whites at around 7/8ths nonwhites and K3 values blacks roughly 1.3 times as much as whites; these are tiny ratios by the standards of last year.

Finding 3: Claude Fable is pretty much perfectly egalitarian. This is very, very different from last year's Claude models. Grok 4.5 has retained the egalitarianism of previous generations of Grok despite the giant increase in capabilities and different team.

Every model I tested would have been the most egalitarian model (aside from Grok 4) last year. All models have come to resemble Grok in their exchange rates.Image
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Read 12 tweets
Jul 19
This is wrong. Kirk was not a particularly hated figure before he was killed; he was seen by Redditor-types as a goofy meme figure of mockery (see below, from 2023). He was only demonized by lefties *after* he was murdered, to retroactively justify the assassination. Image
Kirk was not a case of the lib hate machine whipping up hatred against someone until someone took a shot at him, it was a case of the lib hate machine ramping up after he was murdered.
This is one of the reasons why his murder was so shocking; I sort of expected people taking shots at Trump or Stephen Miller or even Elon Musk, who libs collectively saw as Hitler II, but not Kirk, who they mostly saw as a lolcow.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 13
Thread with excerpts from "Foundations, their power and influence" (1958), by the former chairman of the Reece Committee, a Congressional committee to investigate the conduct of tax-exempt foundations. Image
The administrators of the great foundations formed an interlocking cartel wielding (illegally) immense political and cultural influence using other people's money, as the foundations are tax exempt. Image
Foundations are tax-exempt because they are supposed to be run for public benefit. Image
Read 32 tweets
Jul 11
Thread with excerpts from "The French Intifada: The Long War Between France and its Arabs" (2014). This book, by a leftist (participant in communes) author, portrays race riots by Arab immigrants to France as simply one more episode in a centuries-long war between the two. Image
Both the French Left and Right framed the 2005 riots as part of the long French tradition of revolt. But they were wrong; the protestors were mostly Arabs rioting against France itself, not against "the bosses" or "the state." Image
The rioters (remember, Arab immigrants and their descendants) see themselves as soldiers in a long war against France, Europe, and even civilization itself. Recall that the author is on their side. Image
Read 21 tweets
Jul 3
'The Unknown Warriors' (2006) is a collection of WWII veteran's views on modern Britain gathered via newspaper ad. So what did WWII veterans think of the 2006 UK? They hated it; 134 responses were negative vs only 6 positive (plus 31 N/A and 13 neutral). Excerpts below. Image
The below is typical (from a D-Day veteran): "I am absolutely disgusted with the way things are turning out... and sometimes wonder if it was worth all the suffering of a war." Image
"I have many, many misgivings on how matters have turned out. Problems seem to be resolved, by more and more legislation, instead of action at the source... What many veterans abhor, is the acceptance of homosexuality as the norm." Image
Read 57 tweets

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