Ukrainian strikes have already disabled almost 40% of primary oil refining in European Russia
Russia runs its war on refined fuel. Diesel moves trucks and logistics. Jet fuel keeps aviation in the air. Generators need fuel every day, — Hromadske. 1/
Russia runs its war on refined fuel. Diesel moves trucks and logistics. Jet fuel keeps aviation in the air. Generators need fuel every day, — Hromadske. 1/
Ukraine is hitting the core refinery units that turn crude into usable fuel.
These units are large, complex and hard to replace under sanctions.
Every successful strike removes capacity, adds repair time and increases pressure on the Russian fuel system. 2/
These units are large, complex and hard to replace under sanctions.
Every successful strike removes capacity, adds repair time and increases pressure on the Russian fuel system. 2/
The route from refinery to front is long.
Fuel leaves the plant, moves to depots, goes by rail toward Rostov or Bataysk, reaches local bases, then moves by tanker trucks to Russian units.
Every broken refinery creates delays across this route. 3/
Fuel leaves the plant, moves to depots, goes by rail toward Rostov or Bataysk, reaches local bases, then moves by tanker trucks to Russian units.
Every broken refinery creates delays across this route. 3/
Since April 1, Moscow has banned gasoline exports. Since June 1, it has banned aviation kerosene exports.
Fuel shortages have reached some Rosneft stations in Belgorod and Kursk regions. 4/
Fuel shortages have reached some Rosneft stations in Belgorod and Kursk regions. 4/
Russia is pulling more fuel from Belarus.
Belarusian gasoline sales on the St Petersburg exchange are 26 times higher than last year. Diesel sales are 3 times higher.
Moscow is using imports and subsidies to cover gaps created by Ukrainian strikes. 5/
Belarusian gasoline sales on the St Petersburg exchange are 26 times higher than last year. Diesel sales are 3 times higher.
Moscow is using imports and subsidies to cover gaps created by Ukrainian strikes. 5/
Aviation is one of the key pressure points.
Some of the targeted refineries supply fuel for Russian strategic and tactical aircraft.
Less aviation fuel means more friction for the planes launching missiles and dropping glide bombs on Ukrainian cities. 6/
Some of the targeted refineries supply fuel for Russian strategic and tactical aircraft.
Less aviation fuel means more friction for the planes launching missiles and dropping glide bombs on Ukrainian cities. 6/
Russia repairs one damaged unit. Ukraine hits another. Repair crews, spare parts and sanctions all become part of the same bottleneck.
The fuel machine keeps losing capacity, time and flexibility. 7/
The fuel machine keeps losing capacity, time and flexibility. 7/
Russian officials are already admitting pressure.
Alexander Novak said oil production is lower than at the start of the year because several refineries are undergoing “unscheduled maintenance.”
That is the bureaucratic phrase for a refinery system under attack. 8/
Alexander Novak said oil production is lower than at the start of the year because several refineries are undergoing “unscheduled maintenance.”
That is the bureaucratic phrase for a refinery system under attack. 8/
The next stage is heavier Ukrainian missiles.
Drones with 100 kg warheads damage refinery towers and trigger fires. Larger cruise or ballistic missiles can turn critical units into scrap metal.
Repair then becomes a year-long problem. 9/
Drones with 100 kg warheads damage refinery towers and trigger fires. Larger cruise or ballistic missiles can turn critical units into scrap metal.
Repair then becomes a year-long problem. 9/
If Ukraine keeps this tempo and adds heavier missile strikes, local fuel shortages in Russia can grow into a systemic crisis by Q4.
The next possible step from Moscow: a diesel export ban. 10X
The next possible step from Moscow: a diesel export ban. 10X
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