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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 21 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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Ukrainian strikes have already disabled almost 40% of primary oil refining in European Russia

Russia runs its war on refined fuel. Diesel moves trucks and logistics. Jet fuel keeps aviation in the air. Generators need fuel every day, — Hromadske. 1/

Ukraine is hitting the core refinery units that turn crude into usable fuel.

These units are large, complex and hard to replace under sanctions.

Every successful strike removes capacity, adds repair time and increases pressure on the Russian fuel system. 2/

The route from refinery to front is long.

Fuel leaves the plant, moves to depots, goes by rail toward Rostov or Bataysk, reaches local bases, then moves by tanker trucks to Russian units.

Every broken refinery creates delays across this route. 3/

Since April 1, Moscow has banned gasoline exports. Since June 1, it has banned aviation kerosene exports.

Fuel shortages have reached some Rosneft stations in Belgorod and Kursk regions. 4/

Russia is pulling more fuel from Belarus.

Belarusian gasoline sales on the St Petersburg exchange are 26 times higher than last year. Diesel sales are 3 times higher.

Moscow is using imports and subsidies to cover gaps created by Ukrainian strikes. 5/

Aviation is one of the key pressure points.

Some of the targeted refineries supply fuel for Russian strategic and tactical aircraft.

Less aviation fuel means more friction for the planes launching missiles and dropping glide bombs on Ukrainian cities. 6/

Russia repairs one damaged unit. Ukraine hits another. Repair crews, spare parts and sanctions all become part of the same bottleneck.

The fuel machine keeps losing capacity, time and flexibility. 7/

Russian officials are already admitting pressure.

Alexander Novak said oil production is lower than at the start of the year because several refineries are undergoing “unscheduled maintenance.”

That is the bureaucratic phrase for a refinery system under attack. 8/

The next stage is heavier Ukrainian missiles.

Drones with 100 kg warheads damage refinery towers and trigger fires. Larger cruise or ballistic missiles can turn critical units into scrap metal.

Repair then becomes a year-long problem. 9/

If Ukraine keeps this tempo and adds heavier missile strikes, local fuel shortages in Russia can grow into a systemic crisis by Q4.

The next possible step from Moscow: a diesel export ban. 10X

Source:

hromadske.ua/svit/265610-ch…

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Please also consider donating to support Ukrainian students who study during the war if this cause resonates with you.

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 21

Vector, who leads a Ukrainian unit striking deep inside Russia with long-range drones: They are now our most important card in this war.

Ukraine now flies 200 to 300 of these drones at targets inside Russia every night, up from a few dozen a month in early 2024 — Politico. 1/

In a secret warehouse, GUR specialists assemble 15-foot Liutyi kamikaze drones that carry up to 150 pounds of explosives and fly 1,300 miles.

Each costs about $230,000. Small teams scatter across Ukraine to launch them, so losing a few sites or drones changes little. 2/

Vector: At the beginning, Russians believed they were conducting a special military operation. Now they understand that this is a war.

This war has now reached your homes as well. We hope that message helps Russia bring this war to an end. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 21

Five years into the largest war in Europe since 1945, Putin still has not declared war on Ukraine. He calls it a "special military operation."

Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands and turned its whole economy toward the front. The refusal is deliberate — United24. 1/

Because the word war changes how people act. Call it war, and Russians start to fear mobilization, shortages and death, and they panic.

An operation sounds clinical and contained, handled by professionals and over soon. It let Russians carry on while the army kept fighting. 2/

Because Moscow expected a quick win. In February 2022 it claimed Kyiv would fall in three days and the Kyiv regime would collapse.

A declared war signals an uncertain, costly fight. An operation implied confidence, a short timeline and a job Russia could finish on schedule. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 21

Kuleba: Name one Ukrainian politician of national significance who builds their rating on anti-Polish slogans. You can't. In Poland there are many.

And the president leads them, not with open slogans, but with actions that make life worse for Ukrainians in Poland and at home. 1/

Kuleba: Poland's core interest: if Ukraine falls, Poland is next. Every Polish politician believes this. Ukraine's core interest: EU membership.

These two issues must be encapsulated and protected from the political storms that will keep tearing at our countries. 2/

Kuleba: We must remember 2022 with gratitude, Poles opened doors, hearts and arms when it defied all logic of prior relations

But now Ukraine must support Ukrainians in Poland. These constant scandals will accelerate their assimilation. People will stop being openly Ukrainian 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 21

Bolton: Iran deal requires Israel to withdraw all forces from Lebanon. I see zero chance of that.

But it gives Iran, through Hezbollah, the ability to punish Israel and have Trump and Vance criticize the Israelis for defending themselves. A powerful political weapon. 1/

Bolton: This deal is a powerful tool to split the Great Satan from the Little Satan.

Vance's vitriol toward Israel, saying it was 'built with American money', won't sit well with Israelis or Americans who view Israel as a key ally. Vance has embraced the role of architect here. 2/

Bolton: Compare the rhetoric of JD Vance on Iran to Rob Malley and Barack Obama. It's very hard to tell the difference

Trump jokingly said he might blame Vance if this doesn't go well. If Vance wants this deal, fine, but if he doesn't, he'll have to find his own way out of it 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 20

Britain is building long-range missiles for Ukraine without U.S. components.

Washington has repeatedly delayed or limited the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow for strikes inside Russia.

Ukraine gets weapons no one in Washington can veto — FT. 1/

The project is called Brakestop.

The UK unveiled three prototype long-range strike missiles developed by MBDA UK, MGI Engineering and Rotron Aerospace.

After more tests this year, one or more could reach Ukraine by the end of 2026. 2/

The requirement is political as much as technical.

No U.S. components. No dependence on U.S. cartographic data. No American guidance systems.

The UK wants sovereign control over what it gives Ukraine and how Ukraine can use it. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 20

Hodges: Putin's nightmare — momentum shifts irreversibly in Ukraine's favor. He loses oil and gas exports. Oligarchs push back openly. Europe begins stopping shadow fleet vessels in the Baltic and Black Sea.

When all of that converges — it's over for him. He'll know it. 1/

Hodges: Russia's professional military knows Putin's war has destroyed or severely damaged Russia's armed forces — even Russia's ability to defend itself.

I could imagine the military leadership at some point saying: this is enough. We want to accelerate to that point. 2/

Hodges: Minister Federov says the goal is 50,000 Russian casualties per month. Dramatic — losses that can never be replaced. Ukraine wants to accelerate the collapse.

Too many still believe Russia can't be defeated. That narrative doesn't reflect the reality on the ground. 3X