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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jun 23 • 14 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
It's time to revisit how 992 Ukrainian drones and 10 small cruise missiles were used to saturate Russia's Moscow air defenses.

There was a lot of technology, technique & tactics involved.

Drone War 🧵
1/
The first thing that needs to be pointed out is that in 2026 Ukraine has not only replicated, but likely exceeded, the 2018 capabilities of the USAF's Stand-off Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at at Barksdale AFB.

I've mentioned this before ⬇️
2/
In 2018 a Dallas chapter of the Association of Old Crows gave an award to SMAC & we got an open source brief of what they did to earn the award.

These guys do the evasive routing for integrated cross-service standoff munition attack profiles.

3/
SMAC was developed because the USA had lost it's edge in electronic warfare jamming of peer opponent integrated air defense systems.

Part of what was lost was replaced via better planning & simulation used to target stand off munitions against SAM batteries or what they are defending.

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US military decided to replace jamming by putting more killer robots, intelligently directed, into a defended area than defending SAM missiles can deal with.

Ukraine's 1,000 drone raid on Moscow showed that it can exceed US 2018 SMAC capabilities.


5/
This SMAC-like planning capability has been in Ukrainian hands since at least 2024.

What was lacking, until 2026, was high enough production of the correct mix of drones and drone-missiles to pull it off.

6/
In addition to 2024 SMAC-like digital tools, in 2022 Ukraine obtained the X-band ICEYE, plus commercial Sentinel-1A in the C-band, SARsats to play "satellite radar interference location" games with most VKS radars.

X makes the spot⬇️
7/
Ukraine's satellite radar interference tracking (and electronic tools like Cambridge Pixel app below) can predict where Russian radar coverage cannot see low flying drones for drone swarm strikes like the 1,000 drone raid over Moscow.

8/
While I've been talking about a Ukrainian "1,000 Drone raid" on Moscow for over 18-months.

It is clear Ukraine thought it was missing an important capability to pull it off successfully.

9/
My guess [We will have to wait years to know If I was right] was that Ukraine was lacking enough decoy drones of the correct "kinematic profile" to lead a low level, evasively routed, "drone stream" into Moscow

This changed recently ⬇️

10/
These Ukrainian long range decoy drones are cheaper, ground launched, versions of the ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy scaled to screen FP-1/FP-2 drone streams.

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How many Ukrainian drones raiding Moscow in this drone stream had Starlink/Starshield two-way receivers is also something which will we will have wait for years to find out.

Suffice it to say, "It was enough to do the job."
12/
What the Moscow 1,000 drone raid makes clear is Small/Cheap/Many drone swarms are no longer the "future of war."

Drone Swarms are how modern wars are fought.

And Drone swarms are now hunting top end jet fighters air-to-air as well.

13/13

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 19
The BLUF of every missile based integrated air defense is the number of missiles and launcher reload times are known.

Winning a saturation attack against one is simple arithmetic, total all the defending missiles, then +10 more drones above that number.
1/2
Electronic warfare is always a "saving throw" with an expiration date for the defense.

Plus no one in the world, since 1989, has invested in enough mobile guns for robust AA-combined arms to screw up the simple arithmetic of a saturation drone/missile attacks.

2/
Russia burned out Ukraine's considerable stocks of 5V55 SAMs (~3,300 rounds), 9M83 SAMs (~1,000) and 9M38 SAMs (~800) by repeat saturation attacks.

Ukraine returns the favor. This is not that difficult to grasp.

Saturation attacks were central to legacy Soviet doctrine.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 18
We have just seen over Moscow today - with Ukrainian drones - the Russo-Ukrainian War's version of the RAF’s first 1,000-bomber raid of World War II, codenamed Operation Millennium, which took place on the night of May 30–31, 1942.

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Operation Millennium, marked the first tactical deployment of the RAF "bomber stream".

That is, the tactic of flying a dense, tightly timed formation along a narrow corridor to overwhelm German radar networks and anti-aircraft defenses of the Kammhuber line.
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When I look at the design of the air defense rings around Moscow.🧐⬇️

I can't help but think Ukraine used a 2026 "Drone Stream' to saturate one sector of these ring defenses like the RAF did to the Kammhuber line.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 18
Since you asked...we need to talk about Russian truck logistics in the age of destroyed at will by Ukrainian drones Russian refineries.

Russian industrial infrastructure reflects the Soviet WW2 "one big vertically integrated factory" experience.

Soviet industrial legacy🧵
1/
The Soviets built their industrial plants to minimize transportation impact on its railway system, and later, it's trucking.

This 2013 time stamped Jon Parshall presentation on WW2 US vs German Vs Soviet tank industries underlines this Soviet reality

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In the 1950's and 1960's the CIA and Strategic Air Command (SAC) Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) targeting planners discovered this quirk of the Soviet centralized economy.

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Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 18
The negative air defense reality of a 2,700km range one-way attack drone cannot be overstated for Russia or the USA.

Let us consider for a moment a Cuban "OWA-Drone Crisis" akin to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Drone threat 🧵
1/
Via a question to @grok of Cities of 500K(+) in OWA Drone range:

"Distances are approximate great-circle (straight-line/air) from Havana or central Cuba; actual drone paths could vary due to routing, wind, altitude, & launch site (e.g., closer to Florida from western Cuba)
2/
All listed cities are well under 2,700 km.Florida and Southeast (easiest reach)

Miami, FL (~370 km / 230 miles) — Well within range.

Jacksonville, FL (~1,000–1,100 km) — Within range.

Tampa/St. Petersburg area (metro >500k in cities/urban) — ~400–500 km.

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Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 14
Fearless prediction: N. Ireland will be 90%(+) migrant free in 3 months.

It is now clear to me that what we are seeing in N. Ireland is a sectarian pogrom.

One which will in 3 months be utterly successful in driving out 90%(+)...

N.I. "Troubles Pogrom"🧵
1/
...of the migrants the UK government has placed there. Then Liverpool will be next.

The UK government utterly failed to stop mutual Catholic/Protestant pogroms in the late 1960's early 1970's troubles.  When half N. Irish population was nominally...

2/
...on-side with UK/N.I. law enforcement. The situation is far worse now.

Currently the vast majority of white middle and working classes in Northern Ireland are on-side with the anti-migrant pogrom...

3/
Read 19 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 13
The problem with this analysis is it leaves out the drone & power projection capabilities of the PLA and Taiwan's highly vulnerable off shore islands.

PLA & PLAN parachute, heliborne & marine landing forces can take all of those small islands as a coup de main for drone, SAM & MLRS bases.
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The ability of Taiwan to operate it's HIMARS is tied directly to it's ability to deny China drone air superiority inside Taiwanese air space.

China can throw 1 million OWA drones to suppress Taiwanese air defenses to take those off shore islands.

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The PLA holding the Pescadores, Green and Orchard islands as launch platforms for HQ-9 SAM's, heavy MLRS rockets and Hornet class truck hunting drones means it can overwatch & reduce Taiwanese beach defenses, all while denying air space to ROCAF fighters.

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Read 4 tweets

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