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Jun 24 25 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Thread with excerpts from the Partido Nacional Revolucionario (PNR) section of TR Fehrenbach's "Fire and Blood: A History of Mexico" (1995). Calles created the PNR in 1929 to institutionalize the govt and Revolution, creating a Mexican party-state. Image
The Calles/Obregon governments were corrupt, but never succumbed to paranoia; there was no equivalent to the Soviet or Chinese liquidations of class enemies, the press was free, and the average Mexican had nothing to fear from the govt (Red Terror against the Church aside). Image
Roughly 19M acres were redistributed through 1933; most land remained with latifundios. But the new latifundios were not like the old ones, they were commercial enterprises rather than social systems. The clerics, army, and latifundistas were all tamed by Calles/Obregon. Image
The intellectuals of the Revolution praised the indios, but it was the Revolution that finally destroyed them as a distinct group, turning them into mestizo Mexicans. This was necessary; modern Mexico derives from Spain, Europe, and the West. Image
The Revolutionary period produced the first great outburst of Mexican artistic creativity since the early colonial era. Image
In 1933, the PNR met to draw up a Six-Year Plan for Mexico, on the model of Stalin's USSR. More importantly, Calles chose Lazaro Cardenas to be his next figurehead president. Image
Cardenas turned out to be a sort of Mexican FDR, a genius politician who used the new institutional machinery of the PNR to outmaneuver and marginalize Calles before taking Mexico (fully legal, institutionally conservative, peaceful) in a socialist, agrarian direction. Image
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Cardenas massively scaled up land reform/expropriations, preferentially seizing the best and most improved fields. This tanked and paralyzed production. Image
Turning over modern agrarian enterprises (large-scale plantations in the south, built up by recent European or Levantine immigrants and doing capital-intensive production for the world market) to indio peasant communes (ejidos) turned out to be a disaster. Image
Cardenas then set up Soviet-style govt collective farms with the seized land. As in the USSR, this did not work, and extreme population growth made the situation worse. Image
Cardenas expropriated ~1/5 of arable Mexican land between 1934 and 1940. This proved a disaster, as agriculture bureaucrats had no idea how to farm, but proved an indestructible constituency. Mexico was fed by the remaining smallholders and plantations. Image
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Cardenas also experimented with worker control over enterprises, nationalizing several industries and turning them over to the unions. This was also a disaster, but unlike with the ejidos he was able to reverse course and run them as commercial enterprises. Image
Cardenas wound up nationalizing the foreign-owned oil industry almost by accident over a labor dispute in 1938. If the US had protested over seizure of property, it probably wouldn't have worked, but the FDR administration was pretty much OK with it. Image
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The first few years of PEMEX were a disaster like the rest of Cardenas' nationalizations, but American technical assistance and demand during WWII turned into a modernized and more-or-less efficient behemoth. Image
Ironically, one advantage PEMEX had over private foreign operators was the ability to outlaw and crush labor agitation at will; striking against foreign management was acceptable, but not striking against the (socialist-ish) Mexican government. Image
One of the distinguishing features of the Mexican Revolution and PNR was lack of dogmatism; each president defined his age, but could not outlast his six years in office. The PNR provided an arena where crucial decisions could be made without blood on the streets. Image
After the radical Cardenas era, the PNR moderated; Cardenas and his faction accepted defeat peacefully. Image
WWII enormously benefited Mexico; US technical assistance revolutionized the economy, Lend-Lease modernized the military, and skyrocketing demand boosted the formal and industrial economy, leaving Mexico economically healthier than ever before. Image
The Camacho presidency finally halted the land expropriations to increase national food supply, and began granting formal titles to medium-sized estates. Image
The PNR institutionalized succession, choosing the next president by compromise and consensus. This worked better than most democratic systems between 1940 and 1970. Image
The post-Cardenas PNR were basically non-ideological problem-solvers, statists but not socialists, who prioritized industrial/capitalistic/technical/economic development and political stability over all else. Image
The postwar PNR often preferred working with foreign businessmen, as they were more pacient and demanded less-rapid returns than their Mexican counterparts, and brought desperately-needed tech. Image
In 1958, Communist labor leaders attempted a nationwide series of strikes; President Matteos broke them with federal troops and imprisoned the union chiefs. Image
On the outbreak of the Cuban Revolution, the retired-but-still-influential Cardenas took the side of Castro, winning the "Stalin Peace Prize." The Mexican govt as a whole was friendly to Cuba but aggressively arrested Cuban agents. Image
Falling infant mortality led to a colossal population boom and rural misery; this touched off mass immigration to the United States, adding to the accumulated social and cultural problems of the US Southwest. Image
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More from @arctotherium42

Jun 25
Employers hiring people and then training them in the specific skills they require has declined as a hiring model for decades, in favor of a hiring market where employers look for people who already have those skills. Image
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In the training/internal labor markets model, a company struggling to find specific skills will train promising entry-level employees. In the hiring market model, they can raise wages or otherwise improve conditions. In both, they can also substitute technology for labor. Image
Neither a hiring market nor training model for matching jobs to seekers is compatible with "skill shortages" as a concept, which implicitly assumes skills are fixed and once people with those skills run out employers can do nothing (except through immigration or schooling). Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 24
"Fire and Blood: A History of Mexico" (TR Fehrenbach, 1973/1995) thread of threads. Mesoamerican civilization was horrifying and very backwards by Old World standards, but unique.
Read 13 tweets
Jun 24
Excerpts from TR Fehrenbach's "Fire and Blood: A History of Mexico" (1995). The PRI had massively expanded higher education. These universities were entirely 'free'/self-governing and became locuses of left-wing organizing. Image
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In 1968, security forces fired upon a massive student demonstration/riot against the Olympic Games. Image
By 1970 Mexico had made enormous progress; the national income increased sixfold while the death rate dropped by half. But Mexico was still struggling with foreign-exchange; the govt pursued import-substitution to improve balance-of-payments. Image
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Read 13 tweets
Jun 24
Thread with excerpts from TR Fehrenbach's "Fire and Blood: A History of Mexico" (1995), on post-Revolutionary Mexico. To justify land reform, the revolutionaries revived the principle that expropriation was justifiable if the national interests demanded it. Image
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The Constitutionalists defeated the Villistas in battle and assassinated the leader of the last revolutionary faction, Zapata, by treachery. Image
Carranza, the erstwhile leader of the victorious Constitutionalists, dug his own grave by trying to promote someone other than Obregon to the presidency after him; he was forced to flee the capital, run down, and murdered. Image
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Read 15 tweets
Jun 22
Excerpts from TR Fehrenbach's "Fire and Blood: A History of Mexico" (1973). The Porfiriato gave Mexico a generation of stability and development for the first time since independence. This left Mexico overdue for another civil war: the Mexican Revolution.
One problem was that the Porfirian school system had created a large, literate middle structure (not class). These educated mestizos became dissatisfied due to lack of opportunity; growth was rapid but not rapid enough to absorb them all. Image
The Revolution kicked off in 1910, when Diaz announced he'd won reelection with 99% of the vote. This kicked off an insurgency in Chihuahua, in the mestizo, frontier north. Image
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Read 26 tweets
Jun 22
Thread with excerpts from the 'Porfiriato' section of TR Fehrenbach's "Fire and Blood: A History of Mexico" (1973). This was the first era of stability and economic growth in post-independence Mexico, summed up with the slogan "Order and Progress." Image
Independent Mexico's problem was that Mexicans were incapable of setting aside personalisms for truly national institutions; congress, for example, was a joke. Image
Benito Juarez greatly expanded secular education; but this turned out to be more of a curse than a boon, because the vast majority of people with schooling insisted on government or legal jobs; very few became doctors or engineers or technicians. Image
Read 18 tweets

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