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https://x.com/Globalflows/status/2070178521448939539?s=20

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Capital Flows

@Globalflows

May 30

Hyperliquid Strategies ($PURR ) will have a gamma squeeze in the next 60 trading days (similar to GameStop)🧵👇

$PURR just had its largest day of trading volume, indicating how aggressively investors are establishing positions into the regulatory change for Hyperliquid

On top of this, call open interest for $PURR is surging, as traders buy the OTM tails. Watch very closely because once more OTM calls get listed, it will almost certainly cause a gamma squeeze. Right now, $PURR is the only liquid location to buy OTM calls on Hyperliquid, squeezing into the regulatory acceptance.

There is a massive problem with the calls right now, though. The strikes aren't listed very high. I'll explain this in the next tweet below for you.

Most people only think about price action relative to fundamentals when there are so many microstructure changes and positioning changes that influence it. For example, across all expirations, we only have strikes up to $18 right now. As traders buy more OTM calls, market makers need to hedge their risk by buying the underlying stock as the price goes higher or volatility rises. Once new strikes get listed, this immediately creates an opportunity for traders to roll their calls. This is especially attractive if the stock is melting up as implied volatilitiy is rising. And guess what is happening right now with $PURR ? (next tweet shows the chart of this)

$PURR implied volatility is beginning to rise AT THE SAME TIME that the stock is rallying. Why? Because the market is beginning to recognize that the leadership of $PURR is adding significantly more value than any ETF.

Everyone got burned by previous DATs because they had zero clue how to add shareholder value. Now everyone is realizing that $PURR leadership knows exactly what they are doing and they need to price a higher premium which is why we saw $PURR outperform HYPE ETFs on Friday.

Read 13 tweets

Capital Flows

@Globalflows

May 25

I want to explain the most misunderstood factor for Hyperliquid. If what I lay out is going to happen, the price will easily go to $350 this year. 🧵

Right now, everyone is overly fixated on the launch of the ETFs. The Hyperliquid ETFs are a drop in the bucket for the wall of capital that is going to hit the market

This is very straightforward if you understand global interest rates, fx, and the supply of money in the system. Most people have ZERO clue about how these markets function because they have never traded G7 rates. People think they understand liquidity because they traded Bitcoin during a dollar devaluation narrative but when asked about the most important input into macro liquidity, interest rates, they have no clue.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to have a view on macro liquidity and money in the system without understanding interest rates. These are two sides to the same coin.

Let me lay out this thesis very simply: 👇

Interest rates are all about the price you pay for money in the system. FX markets are the flip side of the coin, which is denominated the actual currency you are borrowing relative to other currencies and their respective interest rates.

Why does this matter for Hyperliquid? Because the largest markets in the world are all about interest rates and FX. Bitcoin and crypto are a drop in the bucket for large players who are managing massive balance sheets. If Hyperliquid can provide enough value via liquidity and low-cost leverage, then the largest players in the world will start moving more capital onto the platform to transact in the most important markets, interest rates, and FX.

Simply put, if you have enough liquidity on your platform, the price you pay for leverage can be LOWER than what you might pay somewhere else. Simple example: If you need a mortgage for your house, you are going to try to get the best rate possible. This is you trying to find the "cheapest leverage" possible in the system. If someone offers you a lower interest rate, with no trade offs, people will take it. Many brokerage accounts compete with each other on the margin rates you have to pay in order to use the firms margin.

The same dynamic is true for Hyperliquid. If they can provide attractive margin rates (or what we can funding rates on Hyperliquid), then this is the real value proposition for Hyperliquid. While everyone is focused on ETF flows, you want to ask what are the drivers of value that would catalyze the flows of the largest players to begin using Hyperliquid every single day.

Clearly, the regulatory constraint is holding capital back like a dam holding back water that wants to pour into a new market. But the most important thing to understand is that if the funding rates for interest rates and FX are low enough on Hyperliquid, this begins to attract capital from the largest players in the world. This especially attracts capital from the entire Eurodollar market that is constantly trying to hedge the surplus of dollar liquidity that is in the system due to the dollars reserve currency status and the historic level of trade the US has conducted which has pushed an unprecedented level of dollars through the entire system.

This flow mechanism connected to the larger macro picture is WHY I am so bullish on Hyperliquid. Notice that functionally, no one else has talked about this. They think this is just the regular "crypto cycle" where you buy momentum and fade the price once everyone starts talking about it on the timeline.

The place we are at with Hyperliquid is actually taking advantage of the biggest blind spots for both people in crypto and people in traditional markets. Crypto people have been conditioned to just think in terms of pump and dumps instead of value creation and flow mechanics in the global interest rate complex. Traditional finance people have functionally dismissed crypto as something that is worthless because no one has really provided true value that has lasted.

This is why I wrote this article on the blindspot that existed earlier this year, before Hyperliquid made its massive YTD rally: x.com/Globalflows/st…

There is a reason that no one is talking about these mechanics. The crypto influencers or VC establishments won't talk about it because they didnt get to invest in Hyperliquid before it launched or get a crypto allocation to schill. On the flip side, the largest institutions won't talk about Hyperliquid because they dont want to draw attention to a market that they havent established a dominant positioning in yet.

"Do you mean to tell me you've finally established a position, so you can price mine?" - The Big Short

My job is a trader. I get paid to hold risk and I have established a position in $PURR which is the largest Hyperliquid treasury company and the only treasury company in the world with a positive P&L right now. It is up over 140% since I originally published the view (see my pinned tweet). But we have only just begun to price what is possible for Hyperliquid and what is possible for $PURR.

Once you realize that Hyperliquid sits in a massive gap in the tradfi and crypto space, then you will realize why $PURR sits as the bridge to BOTH of these.

I continue to hold my $PURR position and it is my strong conviction that Hyperliquid will have a significant rally beyond anyone's expectations and $PURR will be the direct beneficiary of this in addition to adding additional shareholder value on top of HYPE returns.

There are several things that you need to know in order to navigate these changes in Hyperliquid:
1) Understand that we are in a credit cycle melt up that in its very nature is currently sowing the seeds of its own demise. None of this will end well given the amount of liquidity that is in the system but first we are melting up MUCH MUCH HIGHER.
2) Hyperliquid underlying drivers in its value proposition that could catalyze capital aggressively moving onto the platform to access cheap leverage.
3) All of the signals for positioning in global risk assets, interest rates, Hyperliquid, and $PURR.

I will be providing an entire playbook for #1-3 in a livestream tomorrow at 8:30am MST. You will walk away with a playbook for the credit cycle, a model with the code included on mapping funding rates on Hyperliquid, and Tradingview models for monitoring the positioning signals. This will be 100% free for everyone who is a subscriber here. I will send out the links tonight and resend them tomorrow morning so no one misses it: capitalflowsresearch.com/subscribe

Below, I will link the most important tweets and videos I have done thus far that you should review before the livestream tomorrow

Welcome to global macro

HYPERLIQUID

https://x.com/Globalflows/status/2054418652863312293?s=20

My entire video on $PURR post the ETF launches:

https://x.com/Globalflows/status/2054418652863312293?s=20

My interview with the CEO of $PURR

Read 5 tweets

Capital Flows

@Globalflows

May 18

Want to explain several important dynamics with positioning in equities here as we head into $NVDA earnings 🧵

First, skew has turned positive for the first time in years, indicating a lot of net long positioning into earnings. This isn't just about $NVDA though

I will be covering this entire idea in depth on the livestream starting in 30 mins: youtube.com/watch?v=XnNtPg…

You want to notice that the entire semi sector has been in a positioning squeeze as implied vol rises at the same time as price. In simple terms, panic buying and now we are approaching $NVDA earnings but here is the thing, what in the world could Jensen possibly pull out to surprise the market EVEN MORE?

It's actually not that complicated. Jensen was just in China discussing trade with Trump and Xi

So if he releases news about a shift in global trade dynamics where NVDA is the beneficiary, OR the geopolitical tail risks significantly decrease, this could flip the entire script.

Read 5 tweets

Capital Flows

@Globalflows

May 12

The Credit Cycle Melt UP and Coming Crash 🧵

We have seen one of the greatest melt ups in US history since the 2022 lows, as we begin entering unknown territory of the highest valuations in human history

The melt up isn't driven by europhoria or sentiment, it is driven by liquidity and credit that is directly linked to the AI retooling occurring in the financial market and underlying economy

This thread is meant to be a complete breakdown of HOW to think about what is happening, and WHEN risks begin to build that will cause the next bear market 🧵

The current credit cycle melt-up is being driven by two things:

1) Financial market liquidity is expanding AT THE SAME TIME credit is being injected into the underlying economy. This creates a reflexive feedback loop between the market and economy as they feed on each other and risk assets are the release valve of this liquidity and credit.

2) AI is fundamentally retooling the market and economy in a manner that people don't really understand yet. AI is speeding up the pace at which goods and services are transacted in the economy. It now costs a lot less to spin up a company, market it, and build a brand. This can happen with very little upfront capital which means that more businesses generate cash flow with less up front investment. On net this basically injects more cash into the system without being very capital intensive. The same thing is happening in financial markets with capital allocation decisions.

The problem is that there is an increasing amount of money chasing the same amount of investments even though things in the economy and market are operating faster due to AI.

I have been explaining all of these factors daily on the livestreams I do and in the daily reports i send out (both of which can be found on my website which is linked in my bio)

The biggest misconception in markets right now is thinking that AI or the macro credit cycle are independent. Right now, the entire capex side the market is helping drive spending in the underlying economy as oil prices surge which is helping push long end interest rates marginally higher.

It is no mistake that companies like Caterpillar are moving in lockstep with AI factor flows showing that the AI flows in markets are reverberating across every industry. Why? Because hardware is meeting software in a total retooling of the global economy.

Read 20 tweets

Capital Flows

@Globalflows

Apr 13

Let me explain WHERE we are in the risk curve for equities. This will frame how aggressive you should be right now 🧵

RISK CURVE: The spectrum that traders allocate capital to higher risk vs lower risk names, which indicates how much money is in the system

Notice the chart below, it is all of the equities that have high yield debt vs the S&P500 as they just made an all time high. Why? Because traders understand the liquidity spigot is being turned on right now.

https://x.com/Globalflows/status/2042992389602840986?s=20

I explained in my last thread how the changes in inflation and response of central banks is creating a net liquidity injection as real rates fall and capital moves out the risk curve into the largest IPOs in US history.

https://x.com/Globalflows/status/2042992389602840986?s=20

Just let this sink in, we are at the highest valuations in history and about to have the largest IPOs in history. You think those types of things take place when liquidity is low?

The IPO market is still running fine and showing an increase in deal flow

Read 15 tweets

Capital Flows

@Globalflows

Apr 11

The Credit Cycle is setting up for another shift, and consensus is being misdirected by geopolitical risk without realizing the 2nd and 3rd order effects 🧵

We are about to see a quantifiable credit and liquidity injection that will force traders to buy equities and move out the risk curve. This will force everyone to get net long equities as we hit the highest valuations in human history, which will in turn set the stage for a massive bear market

MELT UP FIRST (this is where we are), bear market later

These are all the moving parts you need to be monitoring 🧵

First, you need to understand how capital works in the system. Melt ups NEVER occur because of "investor sentiment" or euphoria, those are simply a reflection of the liquidity changes under the surface.

One of the main ideas I have been explaining and tracking on Capital Flows is the entire risk curve as it relates to the changes in real interest rates: capitalflowsresearch.com/subscribe

In a recent note, I explained that when real rates move DOWN into a resilient economy, this decreases the real return investors receive for holding risk-free treasury bills. The subtle thing people don't talk about much is that it is the real purchasing power of money in the system that moves a ton of capital back and forth along the risk curve.

Remember when all of the "dollar is going to zero" narratives took hold of markets in 2021? It was just because real rates on the short end were deeply negative. This means that if you hold t bills, you were losing money in real terms. As a result, investors are FORCED to buy risk assets to offsett the real purchasing power theyre losing.

Read 21 tweets

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