Global Macro, Rates, FX, and memes (most important) / “You wasted $150,000 on an education you coulda got for $1.50 in late fees at the public library.”
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We are about to crush the Fed's narrative that inflation will be higher in 2025. 
Path dependency is THE KEY to understanding how to align yourself with the mechanics of financial markets. The reason WHY economists are always wrong is because they have the wrong orientation toward the future. They make linear extrapolations instead of moving from one state to another on a path-dependent base. In other words, you don’t want to make predictions of an “inevitable” destination, you simply want to align your actions with how the current state is setting up for the next state.
First, we remain in a regime where Fed Funds is ABOVE core CPI as unemployment is ticking up. 
Now you will notice that in November, the 2-year rate went above the 3-month T-Bill just marginally pricing a hawkish extreme. This is one of the reasons why my strategy opened a bond long during this time in November. The implication was if the 2 year keeps going ABOVE the 3 month T-Bill then hikes are going to come back on the table which is unlikely. Pricing hikes are dramatically different than pricing pauses.
All while net COT positioning in ES has turned negative again 
We already know a 25bps cut is the base case and almost certainly going to happen. The key question is actually about March. 
Because the market is pricing a marginal degree of inflation risk. This matters because IF we don't see a considerable acceleration in inflation then the market will have to REPRICE inflation risk LOWER thereby pushing nominal rates marginally lower.
1) "Always burn the candle at both ends. If you're sleeping more than 6 hours a week, you will fall behind the algos" 
First, the context continues to show a shift in the Fed's rhetoric. In other words, they are not consistently saying things to push rates higher. 
We had a vol crush in the VIX and Move Index post election but FX volatility remains elevated. Once this gets crushed, it will set the stage for the next trade. 
And the economic surprise index has continue to prove consensus has been offsides about growth over the past 2 months. 
This is WHY Bitcoin is rallying. You can’t just know that something is rallying. You MUST KNOW WHY! 
We are beginning to push up against the higher end of the valuation band in SPX. Why is this taking place as interest rates have rallied over the past month? This continues to go back to how interest rates have deviated from the quantity of money in the system. 
all of the carry papers are here:
This is due to a combination of factors primarily due to the fact that a recession is a very low probability right now. The macro data is incredibly clear. 
Is this going to decrease home prices? 
The personal income and outlays data this morning showed REAL consumption remains positive. 
1) Backtests fundamentally show the continuity of things that have empirical significance. We will typically look at this to contextualize their interpretation of the current regime. This will frame the TYPE of returns you extract.
