Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Russia's ongoing fuel crisis will soon lead to impacts far worse than queues at gas stations, warns a Russian warblogger. A logistical crisis is predicted, accompanied by shortages of raw materials and goods, along with soaring inflation. ⬇️

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2071260051168276865

2/ Russia's huge size means that logistics drivers have to travel great distances between pickup and delivery points. With fuel increasingly being rationed, their ability to do this is being curtailed. 'Intelligence Diary' writes:

3/ "One of the less obvious consequences of the crisis: trucks are waiting in line at gas stations, getting 200 litres of fuel, which is enough for about 300-500 kilometers, depending on the road and the load. That's roughly six hours on average.

4/ "As a result, transportation has slowed significantly. Previously, a couple of drivers would drive 1,200 km per day, now it's 300-500."

The cumulative effect of a worsening shortage of fuel is likely to have dire effects for the entire economy, according to the author:

5/ "For Russia, the fuel crisis is like a severed artery in economic terms. The subsequent chain of events risks disrupting the functioning of vital state organs in the very near future.

6/ "Fuel production from petroleum products is a high-value-added process that provides not only domestic employment but also a significant portion of exports. For Russia and its territories, having sufficient fuel at an affordable price is a clear factor in economic security.

7/ "After the fuel crisis, a logistical crisis is inevitable, which will be far more dire. The availability of raw materials and goods in different parts of the country without the ability to connect and deliver them in a timely manner means a systemic economic collapse.

8/ "Some goods will be cheaper to import than to produce, while others will simply be forced out of use or replaced. Consumption overall will decline, compressing the domestic market and pushing up prices.

9/ "Meanwhile, in the short and medium term, things will only get worse: some factories will be shut down for extended periods, agricultural work will increase fuel demand, and the imbalance in logistics will primarily lead to increased fuel costs for the country.

10/ "In any case, all manufacturers, amid the stifling logistics crisis, will have to seek additional defensive assets to cover unforeseen expenses. Inflation will soar, and the Central Bank will likely raise interest rates.

11/ The cost of working capital will rise, making debt servicing more expensive for businesses. Payment and delivery delays will mount in tandem, and a string of bankruptcies will not make life easier for the survivors through reduced competition, but will only worsen matters…

12/ …through a cascading crisis of non-payments.

For developed countries, technology is the primary risk factor for rising production costs; for Russia, it's logistics. And the blow will fall squarely on this very spot.

13/ "Furthermore, Ukraine will continue to demolish Russia's refineries, judging by a colleague's forecast, with an increasing trend. The symbiosis of negative factors is obvious.

14/ "This cycle of "bad advice" could be supplemented by an attempt to adopt some populist decisions in the fall, especially before the elections. It could even be combined: "We're writing off your utility debts, and at the same time, we're writing off your bank deposits."

15/ "In short, in an attempt to calm the people, the government will likely find a few more interesting solutions to shove high-quality scrap metal down a drowning man's pants.

16/ "And all of this is being watched by the ruble exchange rate, which has been artificially inflated to ensure the affordability of high-tech component imports (almost all of which go into rockets and are lost) and as a price for "withdrawing excess cash from the market."

17/ "As soon as the ruble falls to the market rate, speculators will begin to sell it off, the population will begin to completely dump their bank deposits (unless the government gets ahead of them), and the ruble will collapse.

18/ "The government will be happy at first: now it will be easy to resolve the issue of state payments and social benefits. As for any nuances, well, fuck them.

19/ "But it will quickly become clear that happy pensioners and government employees, receiving a devalued ruble, are not really meeting their social obligations (utility bills, at a minimum) and are not keeping up with domestic demand.

20/ "And on top of all this, gasoline prices are rising (even in rising dollars), and the logistical nightmare is crushing the economy. Not to mention that the vile enemy shows no mercy and continues to destroy our factories and infrastructure with greater and greater vigor.

21/ Of course, the state will support us: "You've got nothing to eat anyway, better volunteer for the front!" Mobilisation will begin, and whoever is caught is a volunteer.

22/ "But at this point, we foresee a plethora of problems. They say one feather can break a camel's back. And if you start hitting that camel on the back with a rail, it will break even faster." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/razvedka_ros/3…
🔹 t.me/razvedka_ros/3…