There is so much to object to here that I'm going to restate some basic design observations on the FP-5 to clarify how the Russian reflexive control data fed AI slop that is polluting public discussions of the FP-5.
FP-5 🧵
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FP-5 🧵
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https://twitter.com/jalle51/status/2071138371347378582
1. The FP-5 Flamingo is about four times the launch weight of a BGM-109 Tomahawk (i.e. ~13,200 lb), and 2-3 times the range (i.e. ~1,620 nmi) while carrying twice the warhead mass (i.e. ~2,000 lb).
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2. The FP-5 design concept is modelled on the USAF MGM-13 Mace GLCM as Fire Point told Ukrainian military analysts - but designed with modern technology to be extremely cheap to make (claimed 1/6 the cost of a Tomahawk - likely not counting the engine cost).
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3. The warhead is a FAB-1000 M62 aerial bomb. This is the Soviet equivalent to the US MK-84 BLU-117.
That is, a general-purpose blast/frag bomb, not a specialized bunker buster.
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That is, a general-purpose blast/frag bomb, not a specialized bunker buster.
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4. Given the simplicity of the FP-5 airframe design, non-exotic materials used, and simple guidance and navigation system, a cost around US$100k for mass production in Ukraine, without the engine installed as cited, is very plausible.
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5. As with Western cruise missiles, the big design cost driver is the engine.
The FP-5 was designed to be "engine agnostic" to address the engine cost/availability issue, which the blurred-out image hints at below.
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The FP-5 was designed to be "engine agnostic" to address the engine cost/availability issue, which the blurred-out image hints at below.
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6. If - as appears to be the case - time expired AI-25TL engines past TBO (Time Between Overhauls) are repurposed to FP-5 use, the cost of the engines could be as low as scrap metal.
New build engine cost is less clear, given that Motorsich was nationalized and the engines could be supplied at cost.
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New build engine cost is less clear, given that Motorsich was nationalized and the engines could be supplied at cost.
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But hundreds of thousands of dollars per engine is plausible as
a. The engine is 1970s technology,
b. Does not use exotic materials or processes, and
c. There is scope for more production automation using modern technologies.
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a. The engine is 1970s technology,
b. Does not use exotic materials or processes, and
c. There is scope for more production automation using modern technologies.
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When one of the Cold War Grey beards ran the Thrust-Specific Fuel Consumption (TSFC) numbers for the AI-25TL.
It was tuned for cruising at higher altitudes than the FP-5 mission set, AKA it wasn't going to reach 3K km.
Hench this engine effort ⬇️
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newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/flamingo-…
It was tuned for cruising at higher altitudes than the FP-5 mission set, AKA it wasn't going to reach 3K km.
Hench this engine effort ⬇️
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newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/flamingo-…
7. The AI-25T/TL turbofan can use a compressor cart on a pickup truck, while the missile is on the TEL before launch.
The rocket booster looks like a motor borrowed from a 300mm MLRS round with a tilted nozzle, although there are claims it is a cloned booster from the Tu-141 Strizh drone that is similar in size and mass.
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The rocket booster looks like a motor borrowed from a 300mm MLRS round with a tilted nozzle, although there are claims it is a cloned booster from the Tu-141 Strizh drone that is similar in size and mass.
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8. Fire Point says FP-5 guidance is an undisclosed IMU with a CRPA equipped GPS receiver - modelled on the JASSM/JASSM-ER scheme - but they have not detailed the CRPA.
JASSM has a 12-channel CRPA - that was disclosed by USAF years ago. The FP-5 antenna is small, so it might only be 4-to-8-channel.
There is no evidence of a DSMAC or TERCOM, but both of which are easily retrofitted.
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JASSM has a 12-channel CRPA - that was disclosed by USAF years ago. The FP-5 antenna is small, so it might only be 4-to-8-channel.
There is no evidence of a DSMAC or TERCOM, but both of which are easily retrofitted.
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9. The transporter-erector launcher (TEL) developed by Fire Point is cheap and nasty and will be a headache for high tempo operations.
For both ease of transportation and deception reasons, FP-5 wings are attached to the missile just before launch.
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For both ease of transportation and deception reasons, FP-5 wings are attached to the missile just before launch.
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10. Since the FP-5 can be
a. Programmed with waypoints to bypass defenses,
b. Flies at 500 KTAS at a programmed low altitude, [like in the Volga river valley below] and
c. Is very accurate w/o jamming.
It will perform like a Tomahawk or lookalike and be difficult for the Russians to intercept.
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a. Programmed with waypoints to bypass defenses,
b. Flies at 500 KTAS at a programmed low altitude, [like in the Volga river valley below] and
c. Is very accurate w/o jamming.
It will perform like a Tomahawk or lookalike and be difficult for the Russians to intercept.
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11. Where media folks keep getting taken in by Russian poisoned AI slop is that the FP-5 is largely made from carbon-fiber composites and carbon powder loaded plastics.
Such structures are quite lossy** in the microwave bands.
** Lossy is a radar stealth term of art.
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Such structures are quite lossy** in the microwave bands.
** Lossy is a radar stealth term of art.
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For those who want to know more about Lossy radar stealth, plug the following text string into your A.I. of choice and read the output:
"Lossy Very Low Observability coatings and carbon fiber structure"
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"Lossy Very Low Observability coatings and carbon fiber structure"
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12. While the FP-5 is not a genuine stealth design. Specifically, the engine nacelle inlets & exhausts are high radar cross section.
The airframe will reflect a lot less than a traditional metal skinned missile both because of structural materials and very few 90-degree angles.
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The airframe will reflect a lot less than a traditional metal skinned missile both because of structural materials and very few 90-degree angles.
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@threadreaderapp unroll please
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